Let’s take a quick look at how the current Mets stack up to their counterparts, the 2003 Mets.
Catcher: Mike Piazza/Vance Wilson vs. John Buck/Travis d’Arnaud: Advantage has to go to the 2003 Mets, who received a 126 OPS+ from Piazza over 273 plate appearances. The gap was expected to be bigger, but Piazza’s first significant injury led to plenty of time for Wilson and Jason Phillips, as did his poorly-planned move to first base.
First base: Jason Phillips vs. Ike Davis: Probably a slight advantage to the 2013 Mets, though Davis’ 110 OPS+ in 2012 was below Phillips’ 115 in 2003. Still, Davis finished strong, and I like his chances to match Phillips offensively, and handily outpace him defensively.
Second base: Roberto Alomar vs. Daniel Murphy: astoundingly, Murphy, and easily. Alomar had been a 150 OPS+ offensive player with incredible defense just before the Mets got him after the 2001 season. But 2013 Murphy has a year of the position under his belt, and is a great bet to outpace Alomar’s 84 OPS+ from 2003.
Third base: David Wright vs. Ty Wigginton: Wright by a ton. Wigginton managed just an 88 OPS+, while Wright is a career 135 OPS+ hitter. Defense is a solid edge to Wright, too.
Shortstop: Jose Reyes vs. Ruben Tejada: Edge to Reyes here, even rookie year Reyes, with an OPS+ of 102 to Tejada’s 2012 mark of 90, and better defense to boot. Only thing that closes the gap somewhat is the 185 plate appearances Mets gave to Rey Sanchez while Reyes was finishing his Triple-A internship, with an OPS+ of 27!
Outfield: Huge advantage, 2003 Mets. Cliff Floyd and his 134 OPS+, along with four months of Jeromy Burnitz at 139 OPS+, far outdistances what anyone can expect from Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mike Baxter or Collin Cowgill. That’s true offensively, and with the exception of Baxter, that’s probably true defensively, too. Not even close.
Starting pitching: Probably a push. Don’t forget, the 2003 Mets got 30-plus starts from Steve Trachsel (111 ERA+), Jae Weong Seo (110 OPS+), Al Leiter (106 OPS+) and Tom Glavine (93 OPS+). Fifth starter was kind of a black hole, though, between Aaron Heilman, Jeremy Griffiths, David Cone (!) and Pedro Astacio.
The 2013 Mets will have Jonathon Niese, coming off of a 113 ERA+, Matt Harvey, who dominated in 10 starts, Johan Santana, who posted a 79 ERA+ in half a season, and Dillon Gee, who matched Glavine’s 2003 (94 ERA+) in a half-season. Beyond them lurks Zach Wheeler, Collin McHugh, Jenrry Mejia and little else. Essentially, the only chance the 2013 Mets have to produce a far better staff than the 2003 Mets is if everybody stays healthy, Harvey is as good in 2013 as he was in 2012, and/or Gee/Niese take another step forward. Possible, but just as possible are steps back/injuries. So this one’s probably a push.
Bullpen: Enormous edge, 2003 Mets. Consider the following list of pitchers with ERA+ better than 100 and at least 20 IP in 2003 for Mets: Scott Strickand (190), John Franco (162), David Weathers (137), Armando Benitez (136), Graeme Lloyd (128), Pedro Feliciano (126), Dan Wheeler (114).
Here’s the list of returning Mets from 2012 with an ERA+ above Josh Edgin’s 85: Tim Byrdak (88), who will miss most of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, and Bobby Parnell (155).
The 2003 Mets, for the record, finished 66-95. Their manager, Art Howe, did light up a room, though.
12 Comments
Astute observations. Afraid you are spot on, but still hoping for the best.
This is so scary.
I think you’re overestimating the 2003 Mets. They had a collective OPS+ of 81, compared to 94 in 2012, and incidentally, 82 in 1962.
The 2003 team had (by baseball-reference) only had 3 position players with at least 1 WAR (Reyes, Floyd, and Piazza, who combined for 6.7 WAR — which David Wright equaled all by himself in 2012).
And it’s even worse as you go deeper. Look more closely at that outfield: Burnitz and Floyd were very effective, but the two of them only had 599 AB combined. The other eight 2003 outfielders were a nightmare. I’ll just list them by OPS+: 23, 44, 28, 84, 26, 72, 75, 61.
Add it all up and you have a team whose entire hitting corps combined for a grand total of 0.4 WAR
Sorry but your analysis is slightly flawed. You aren’t asking which team is better off, which implies sustained success. You are asking which team is better for a given season.
If you look at long run, nearly every positional advantage the 2003 mets had were from older players who were not as likely to repeat their performances:
Piazza
Burnitz
Leiter
Tracheal
Weathers
Franco
Benitez
I did not include Glavine as he was solid for the rest of his contract or Floyd as he had a big 2005. Regardless, the above list includes the 2003 Mets’ core players. The core guys for 2014: Wright/Davis/Murphy/Niese/Harvery/Parnell. Only Wright is as old as 30. Furthermore, the farm system is far stronger today then is was 10 years ago. The top line guys: Wheeler, D’Arnoud, Syndergraad. Those are three A rated prospects, while 10 years ago only Wright fit that bill. Additionally, the B level is far superior today.
The best argument one could make saying the 2003 Mets had the better long term outlook is that by residing in the pre-Madoff era, the ‘03 squad had more resources.
RK, I agree that framing the question beyond 2003 changes the equation. Was not what I wrote or intended, however.
But the question in the headline asks if the Mets are ‘better off’ or not.Considering that you don’t touch on the future prospects for this team compared to the 2003 team I would think a more appropriate headline would read “Will the 2013 Mets finish with a better record than the 2003 Mets?”.Being ‘better off’ clearly encompasses more than just the prospects for this season alone.
The 2013 version is going to come close to those 66 wins that the 2003 team won so I agree they are comparable. But you are comparing apples to oranges. The Mets were financially in a much better position than they are now, but their farm system stunk and there was very little to look forward to until Omar went on a shopping spree in 2005. This management group is going to build the team up through the farm and supplement with free agents and trades. The Mets have a game plan here but its going to take 2 or 3 more seasons to see the results translate to the big league team.
Does it really matter? We want a competitive team plain and simple. We know we’re probably not gonna win it all but at least keeps us in it until Sept.
RA, frankly, an organization about to graduate David Wright from a farm system that just produced Jose Reyes probably can lay claim to some future brightness, as well. Anyhow, glad I could clear up any confusion.
I think the 2013 Mets will finish better than the 2003. We still need a OF & Bullpen.maybe starter and will will be better than 2012.
The Mets remain mired in Wilpon Hades. On one extreme are hampionship rings and on the other are the rings of hell the Mets are trapped in. 2003 or 2013? Pick your poison. Why not ask about 1993? Does sheep poop taste better than camel poop? Who cares? It’s all poop. So are the Wilpon Mets. Poop.
Whether they stink this year or not I’ll stay a fan.
Many GREAT memories of going to the games as a kid with my dad.
The mets would give free tickets out to the kids in school that made the honor roll.
I remember me and dad being in the stadium with only a few thousand people in the early 70’s.
Good or bad, I’m a fan for life.