It has been my opinion for a while now that Bobby Parnell would be a perfectly reasonable option to close games for the New York Mets.
Parnell, who turned 28 last month, just concluded a fine 2012 season. Throwing exclusively fastballs (at 95.7 MPH) and curveballs (at 82.8 MPH), he compiled an ERA of 2.49, struck out eight batters per nine innings, and walked just 2.6 per nine.
I wondered how that compared to other closers from 2012. Here’s what I found.
Among those pitchers with at least 20 saves in 2012, and there were 29 of them, Parnell’s strikeout rate would rank 25th. His walk rate would rank 13th of 29. And his ERA checks in tied for tenth.
However, Parnell’s xFIP is a bit higher, at 3.15. Still, that ranks tenth-best among closers with at least 20 saves, too.
If Parnell repeats his 2012 in 2013, he’ll be a better than league average closer.
Now that doesn’t account for the $6.5 million the Mets are paying Frank Francisco next season. But that is what’s called a sunk cost. They are doing that whether Francisco is used sub-optimally as closer, or more appropriately, as a middle relief option.
I say sub-optimally because Frank Francisco is 33 years old. Do you know how many seasons he’s had a better xFIP than Parnell’s 2012? Zero. He’s never done it.
So the Mets have plenty of problems with the current roster to fix. But they do not need to go out and get a closer. They just need to use the right closer already on the roster.
4 Comments
His curve has helped, so long as he can with some consistency paint the corners and not hang it. However, until he pitches INSIDE, he will be toast as a closer. I can’t imagine that Warthen has not expressed this to him, but he continues to pitch like a liberal Democrat. Even if he doesn’t have the psychological make-up, since they’ve long ago given up on him as a starter, if he ever wants to be a big earning closer, reading Bob Gibson’s or Don Drysdale’s, or Nolan Ryan’s bios should be an off-season mandatory assignment.
“If Parnell repeats his 2012 in 2013, he’ll be a better than league average closer.” — That last bit should read ‘…he’ll be better than a league average closer.’ The fact is that even in 2012 his numbers while he was closing were not as good as his numbers while setting up or in middle-inning relief.
Franky Frank, on the other hand, while posting execrable overall numbers, did considerably better while closing. I’d much rather have Frank’s 2012 save % than Parnell’s coming out of my bullpen.
An idea I’ve seen floated for next season is to have Frank be the ‘regular’ closer, but use Parnell as the ‘relief’ closer when Franky’s thrown two days in a row. I have no idea whether that would actually reduce Franky’s chance of reinjuring himself, but it would give columnists yet another opportunity to observe that Parnell isn’t even an adequate substitute for a below average closer. Maybe the fifth time would be the charm.
Throw a couple 100 mph warmup fastballs just to the left of the visiting dugout and the first 3 batters in the ninth won’t dig in and won’t lean over the plate.
Summation: Annus Horribilis.