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Some Fun With Matt Harvey Projections

Posted By Howard Megdal On August 30, 2012 @ 11:22 am In Today's Mets headlines | Comments Disabled

After last night’s game, Matt Harvey has logged seven starts, or approximately 20 percent of a full big league season. Just to put his level of effectiveness in context, here is what that would be, extrapolated over a full year.

Matt Harvey: 211 2/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 85 walks, 245 strikeouts, 15 HR allowed, 1.0 WAR.

Where would that put him among the National League leaders? He’d be tied for fourth in ERA with R.A. Dickey. He’d be on pace for more strikeouts per inning than anyone but Stephen Strasburg, meaning that he’s likely lead the NL in strikeouts. And only Johnny Cueto, and possibly Clayton Kershaw, look like they’d best him in WAR.

None of this means that Matt Harvey can be called one of the best pitchers in the National League on the strength of seven starts. 42 1/3 innings just isn’t enough to determine that. And the ability to throw 200 innings itself is a marker he’ll need to reach to be in that conversation, not simply to be on pace to do so.

But it does say something about the quality of Harvey’s start as a Met. Most pitchers struggle to adapt to the new, higher level of competition when they reach the major leagues. That Harvey not only hasn’t done that, but has been dominant, speaks awfully well to his future.

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