Look, I understand your natural revulsion to Oliver Perez. When you last saw him as a Met, he was utterly terrible.
There’s a real simple reason why, by the way. His fastball velocity dropped precipitously. He’d been at 93 MPH in his glorious 2004 season, even as high as 91.2 in his serviceable 2008 season with the Mets.
By 2010, he was down to 88 MPH. A below-average fastball isn’t death to a pitcher with good command. But Oliver Perez was never accused of having particularly good command. So add a very hittable fastball to consistently getting behind in the count, and the results are pretty clear.
So goodbye, good riddance, Perez gone forever. Right?
Well.
Ted Berg pointed out that the Seattle Mariners’ head scout was in Buffalo on Wednesday night.
Now bear with me here. This could well mean nothing. It could be simple due diligence. There’s absolutely no reason to believe that the Mets are looking to acquire Oliver Perez, and plenty of reasons to think they wouldn’t (see the fan revulsion, for instance). I’m really hoping the bolded statement allows me to avoid a bunch of people reporting that I’m perpetuating a rumored deal between the Mariners and Mets for Oliver Perez. I am not.
But allow me to make the baseball case for such a move, and not just because I enjoy writing about Oliver Perez more than perhaps anyone should.
1. Oliver Perez has been effective this year. That fastball is back up to an average of 93.4 MPH- a more than five MPH increase over his 2010 average with the Mets.
2. Oliver Perez has been especially effective against lefties throughout his career, and especially this season. In Triple-A, he struck out 24 lefties in 13 2/3 innings of work against them, posting a 1.98 ERA against lefties overall.
3. The Mets’ bullpen needs help, especially from the left side. Justin Hampson could be an answer, but that’s asking a lot from a guy who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2008 and has fringe stuff. The newly-rediscovered Perez certainly doesn’t lack for a major league fastball anymore.
4. Acquiring Perez wouldn’t take much. The Mets don’t have a ton of prospects to spare, while in-season relievers usually cost a premium. They don’t necessarily have the means to add a reliever available for bloated salary reasons, like Huston Street. This is an acquisition that wouldn’t cost much either way, and they could cut bait on Perez if he doesn’t perform in New York.
So there it is. I’ve got a mixed record on Oliver Perez. I wrote back in 2007 that I believed he’d give the Mets 16 wins and an ERA of between 3.50-3.70. He checked in at 15 wins, 3.56 ERA. I also wrote, however, that re-signing him as a free agent after the 2008 season was a very good idea, even at the price they paid. Obviously, that one didn’t work out.
Think of this: if he comes back and helps this unlikely Mets team in the second half of 2012, after performing well in the 2006 NLCS and solidly in 2007 and 2008, will he be forgiven?
More to the point: if he’s a useful lefty the Mets can add to a bullpen in need of help for relatively little in salary or prospects, should Sandy Alderson really avoid acquiring him because he didn’t perform well while his primary weapon was compromised?
10 Comments
Has a guy who was essentially run off by the fans ever come back for a successful second act with the Mets? I am sincerely asking this question.
I’m looking at the calendar and I can’t tell whether you’re 9 months early for April Fools or 3 months late.
I think you’re basically trolling for comments, but I’ll play along.
Unless the Mets have a lot more resources to pour into mid-season acquisitions than either of us expect, any trade they do make is primarily aimed at convincing fans to come to the ballpark. Ollie Perez is not going to create a positive vibe.
I have my doubts that Ollie is a big upgrade over Justin Hampson. (You point out Ollie’s strikeouts against lefthanders. I don’t have the splits, but I see he walked 19 batters in 31 minor league innings – not really encouraging for a reliever.)
And then there’s the whole psychological issue – how would Ollie perform when he gets booed every time he comes into a home game?
Paul, I have the luxury of writing about whatever I wish, without any pressure from my editor to try and artificially boost traffic. I can assure you, I write about Oliver Perez because of a desire to write about Oliver Perez, and because I think the intersection between Perez’s current form and what the Mets need is an interesting one to me, given the history.
As far as upside over Justin Hampson- are you serious? Perez was striking out 12/9 at Triple-A, and has a track record, when throwing hard, of dominating lefties. His upside is not the issue, it is his downside and potential reaction from the fans.
Ultimately, trades shouldn’t be made for ballpark vibe. They should be made to help the Mets win the most games, which will itself affect the ballpark vibe. Would Perez be booed after coming in and striking out lefties? I doubt it very much. He’d have to succeed early, though, which is why the risk isn’t worth dealing much for.
But Seattle has no use for him. A C prospect, pay him the league minimum, jettison him if it doesn’t work? Why not?
Todd, that’s a great question. Bobby Bo came back, but he didn’t exaclty have a successful second act. F. Scott Fitzgerald would obviously oppose a Perez move.
And the Mets are STILL paying Bonilla! Ollie Perez redux? You advise Wilpon like Wolsey advised Henry VIII. The few remaining fans would take you to the guillotine and shorten you a little bit.
To those w/ kneejerk negative reactions, I’ll say what my high school english teacher used to say to me:
Are your beliefs that fragile that you can’t even entertain those of the other side?
Tell your English teacher to address his lame “advice” to the 10,000 fans who still go to the games. Excellence does not result from vacillation.
Let them eat Shake Shack?
Aide speaking to Marie Antoinette: “Madam, the peasants are revolting!” Marie responds: “Revolting? They’re Disgusting!”