By Peter J. Barrett
What if Carlos Beltran hit Adam Wainwright’s curve? That question was tackled by St. Louis Post Dispatch columnist Derrick Goold.
Goold wrote that Beltran, “would have joined the ranks of Ron Swoboda’s catch and Mookie Wilson’s run.”
But Beltran did not even swing. He just stood there, with a look of disappointment on his face—a look fans would see a lot of over the next half decade.
Following the 2004 playoffs in which Beltran slugged 8 home runs in 12 games for the Astros, rumor had it that the free agent Beltran offered the Yankees a $19 million discount.
The Yankees passed, and the Mets feasted, signing Beltran to a 7 year, $119 million contract. Despite the sentiment of Mets fans toward him, largely based on that NLCS strikeout and his degenerative knees, Beltran played well when healthy.
Beltran’s total Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 32.2 ranks second in the Mets 50 year history. He also ranks high in several other categories, including 6th place in home runs (149), OBP (.369) and doubles (208.)
Assuming his knees cooperate, Beltran will play his first game back at Citi Field on Friday as the Mets welcome in the Cardinals for a four game series.
But what if Beltran never left? If the Mets were in contention at the trade deadline last year, and did not have the financial cloud of debt hovering over them, Beltran could have at least finished the season wearing orange and blue.
From there, it is possible the Mets, who were unwilling to shed over $100 million on free agent shortstop Jose Reyes, would have been willing to equal Beltran’s current contract of 2 years, $26 million. They even had that option this winter, despite trading him.
He certainly has earned his pay early on in 2012. Beltran leads the NL with 15 home runs and is third in all of MLB with 42 runs batted in.
While current Mets right fielder Lucas Duda leads the team with 7 home runs, and ranks second with 26 runs batted in, that just proves how weak the Mets offense has been. So, is Beltran worth a little over $12.5 million more than Duda?
The best way to measure worth is to compare WAR. Duda has accumulated a negative .3 WAR, while Beltran’s WAR is 2.3. At this point in the season, two wins may be worth $12.5 million—especially because it would jump the Mets from third to first in the NL East.
The problem is, even if Beltran was putting up the same numbers in New York, he could not use that $12.5 million to put towards a time machine.
His time in Houston is characterized solely by his historical postseason performance. His time with the Mets is remembered most for that 2006 NLCS called strike.
Batters usually get three strikes in baseball. Mets fans turned on Beltran after just one.
7 Comments
Carlos was always too cool for school. A natural talent who, sadly, showed no leadership whatsoever until his last couple months with the Mets when he crawled out from under his turtle shell. Fans naturally don’t particularly like players who seem to play without fire and act nonchalant no matter what else they bring to the ballpark. Kevin McReynolds was possibly the Mets best natural talent in their entire history, but his apparent disinterest kept him from becoming a fan favorite.
Herman, you couldn’t be more wrong, both in terms of his leadership among his teammates, and by example by playing through pain.
That’s your opinion, to which you are entitled. However, the preponderance of Met fans disagree.
That may be true, Herman. But at one point, the preponderance of people believed the earth was flat.
Well, then if you wait another fourteen centuries, like we did for Columbus, you might have a shot. Why do you think a smooth NY center-fielder with .280/.367/.500 Met numbers, averaging 29 average homers per year, 108 RBIs, 100 steals in 116 attempts still, STILL leaves a bad taste in fans’ mouths? It wasn’t because of just one curve ball in 2006 game 7. That pitch simply defined his perpetual nonchalant, disinterested, non-leadership approach that Met fans don’t, and never will appreciate.
While it is true that Beltran never demonstrated the leadership qualities you would’ve expected of a player of his caliber, he was a remarkable player in his prime healthy seasons as a Met. For that matter though, did the Mets really have a ‘’leader’’ in recent years? Reyes had the most rallying type of power. Wright certainly has in the community. Delgado was just a big ego. The only player I truly believe shows dominance mixed with simply taking over things the way a leader can is Santana. Much more than Pedro Martinez. Pedro was good at the whole party theme. Santana simply pitches and has always been remarkable when healthy as a Met defying all odds now.
As for whether or not the Mets would be better with Beltran now, I’d say not by much. I know he’s doing awesome but I just don’t think he would’ve had those numbers here. A change of scenary did him well. Had Bay’s salary not been on our books they may have kept him. Trading him for Wheeler was practical because were out of it. If they wanted him back at the same money St. Louis gave him, he might’ve came back here. It was just time to cut ties with him. At least we’ll always be able to say Beltran played an interesting role in Santana’s no hitter.
All true. And you can bet that if Santana were an everyday player, he’d accept nothing but pure energy and enthusiasm from every position. He’s the leader as it is, even as a pitcher.