Let’s put it this way: I am far more confident about the decline of the Phillies than I am about the Mets’ ability to capitalize on it this year.
Consider yesterday. We learned that Roy Halladay will be out for 6-8 weeks. But that’s from an injury that kept Mike Morse out for three months. And Halladay is a pitcher. So I’ll believe he’s back and pitching when he’s back and pitching.
Now, consider how reliant on pitching the Phillies are. That situation in the sixth inning Tuesday night, when they couldn’t score the tying run from third with nobody out, is merely emblematic. That is a terrible offensive team. Even with a healthy, in-prime Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, they’d merely be ordinary. But those two players might not even exist anymore.
Now, with Vance Worley down, and Halladay down, the very ordinary Joe Blanton is the new third starter. Kyle Kendrick is the fourth starter. The fifth starter is TBD.
And the rotation was supposed to protect the Phillies against the limitations elsewhere on the roster.
Finishing first is going to be tough in the NL East. But finishing fourth just got significantly likelier.
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Metsies are scraping by because they have so many irregulars coming up that the opposition hasn’t figured out their chronic weaknesses, those weaknesses that have kept them in the minors for good reason. Like with Ike, once they do, it’s sayonara.