Here are the numbers: a 7-3 start, thanks to a 2.26 ERA from their starters.
1-5 since, thanks to a 7.80 ERA from their starters.
So they just have to get back to their initial production, right?
Well, sure, to play .700 ball. But the Mets now have a 4.12 ERA from their starters, which is more like what you’d expect from this group of five. As is the 8-8 mark. It makes sense that a larger sample of work would produce a more complete picture.
But wait: there’s more. That’s a 16 game sample which included 15 starts from their 1-5 starters, with only one game started by Miguel Batista. And that’s where the Mets start to run into trouble.
The chances that the five starters make all but 12 starts this year–150 out of 162–are extremely slim. And that’s where the starting rotation likely slips to a worse ERA, and below a .500 record.
All this reiterates a couple of basic truths about the Mets: if everything goes right, the Mets are a .500 team. And if everything doesn’t, well, the drop is immediately steep.