Like most of the other positions on the baseball field, second base offers a wide range of outcomes for the Mets.
The version where Daniel Murphy stays healthy and can hold down the position defensively is actually a potential boon to the team on par with Johan Santana regaining his ace form or David Wright swinging like it’s 2007. His offense last year- a .320/.362/.448 line in 423 plate appearances- was as good as nearly any second baseman in the game. And his range has always been strong- only the ability to stay on the field is in question.
Anyhow, that all makes ranking the Mets at this position awfully difficult, so I’ve ranked them both if Murphy stays healthy, and if he doesn’t. That would leave the job in the hands of either Justin Turner or Ronny Cedeno, and the deficiencies of both will be reflected in that ranking.
1. New York Mets (with Murphy): I know, I’m as surprised as you are. But let’s say Murphy holds down the position adequately. His OPS+ was 125 last year, so even a small regression leaves him ahead of Dan Uggla’s 109. And Murphy would have to be so massively awful in the field to surpass Uggla’s futility, I think it is fair to assume to do so he’d have to pass out in May and lie prone at second base for the remainder of the year, only stopping balls physically hit into his body.
2. Washington Nationals: Danny Espinosa over Chase Utley? We’ll get to why in a moment, but first, Espinosa. He posted a respectable 102 OPS+ last year on a .236/.323/414 line, and he’ll be just 25 in April, so further improvement is distinctly possible. His defense is probably the best in the division at the position, too. Espinosa has a home on several of my fantasy teams. Shouldn’t you find a place for him, too?
3. Atlanta Braves: Dan Uggla does few things well. But one of them is hitting home runs, and that’s good enough to push his rate value up considerably. And the other is to stay on the field, which maximizes the total value his teams get from that rate. His play at second base probably induces nausea in Bill Mazeroski’s relatives. But no one said it had to be pretty, except possibly Joan from Mad Men.
4. Philadelphia Phillies: There’s an argument to place Utley last. The next guy, Omar Infante, is a fine fielder, due for a bounceback year, and is a year removed from a 111 OPS+ and an all star appearance. But I just can’t. Utley slipped to a 109 OPS+ last year, appeared in 103 games, and his general manager seems to have no idea if or when he’ll play this year. But from 2005-2009, Utley was probably the best player in the National League other than Albert Pujols, with an argument based on position to be made for Utley. And I have this feeling he’s got a Carlos Beltran 2011 renaissance in him if he gets back that will make this ranking look foolish. Otherwise, it’s Freddy Galvis, and Infante laps him in performance.
5. Miami Marlins: Like I said above, Infante is a solid second baseman. If the Marlins fail to reach expectations in 2012, it won’t be because of Infante.
6. New York Mets (without Murphy): Oh, it’ll get ugly. Turner does not hit well for a second baseman, and his fielding is deceptively poor. Cedeno’s OPS+ last year was 76, and is 68 for his career. To put that in perspective, Brooklyn Dodger great Don Newcombe’s OPS+ for his career was 85- and he was a pitcher.
I guess what I’m saying is, pray for Daniel Murphy.
10 Comments
pretty sure we would probably see Valdespin there if Murph goes down, no?
Guess a lot of it depends on how much Triple-A time they think Valdespin needs. Could be for an extended period, they’d want to go with the backups on hand. But I could also be projecting my doubts about Valdespin as a prospect. You are absolutely right that he’d be in the mix.
Justin Turner isn’t a starting player in the major leagues. I think they know that. If you’re going to play defense like Justin Turner you’d better hit like Daniel Murphy. Ronny Cedeno isn’t even that great defensively. If you’re going to hit like Ronny Cedeno you’d better play defense like Roberto Alomar. I would think they would have to go with the young prospect if he is even remotely close to ready. If not for PR alone. Do you think the fans want to see Ronny Cedeno out there, or a prospect? Now if he’s not even close to ready it’s a different story. Also depends where they are in the standings.
I LIKE Murphy, but let’s face the indisputable fact: he’s a patch-job second baseman on a patch-job team.
Walter, we just don’t know that yet. About Murphy, that is. The man hasn’t had a chance to play the position regularly. That he’s getting a chance due to a roster cutting corners every place it can seems true, however.
With all due respect, although Murphy rightly deserves a place on this team as a reserve, this is supposed to be a major league franchise, and in NY no less. It’s not New Rochelle High School where they’re trying out a sophomore to see if he can learn to become a second baseman. He’s already been twice crippled while trying to turn a double-play.
Walter, if Murphy can play the position, his bat profiles among the best in baseball there. The problem isn’t trying Murphy there now- it’s that he should have been there sooner.
Right – as a high school sophomore.
Howard, great piece…as always!
I hope your projection is correct and Murphy’s glove is above expectation. I don’t think the Mets are going to have to worry about hitting this coming season…pitching…eh.
Big fan Howard, keep it coming
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