The LoHud Mets Blog

The king of prospects weighs in on the Mets.

There’s ample reason for optimism here, especially on the pitching side. It is important not to figure on any particular prospect, especially a pitcher. So it is less the impressive reports on Wheeler, Familia and Harvey, and more that all three of them exist simultaneously.

To me, the only thing mitigating optimism over Sandy Alderson’s overhauling of the farm system is the question of how much he’ll be able to spend on next year’s draft. For all their financial problems, the Wilpon group allowed Alderson to go over slot on a bunch of picks-Philip Evans’ presence in the team’s top 20 is just one result. But cutting corner could affect any aspect of the team’s expenditures. And with greater penalties for going over slot from the new collective bargaining agreement, even the same financial situation could produce additional restrictions from above.

That said, there are plenty of minor leaguers to track, and the management team understands that rushing them would be foolish, no matter the struggles at higher levels.

http://mobile.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/27/2664351/new-york-mets-top-20-prospects-for-2012

For those who haven’t seen on Twitter: @ThePhillyPhans is reporting that David Wright is going to be with the Phillies “very, very soon”.

Let me tell you what I know.

I know little about that site. This isn’t to disparage it- I just can’t vouch in any way for the site.

None of the sources I trust have anything on this yet. At the moment, no one is rushing to deny it. But there’s nothing to corroborate so far.

I’m about to pack it in for the holiday weekend. So I refuse to believe I’m about to deal with the aftermath of the Mets giving their fans a present to coincide with both Christmas and Chanukah of dealing David Wright.

Or I’ll put it another way: I’m going to need a lot more information than this to entertain the notion.

The deal is rumored to involve Domonic Brown. He’d be a nice fit. It isn’t out of line with the baseball deals and notions being put forth by this team- that is, building for the long-term. Wright just turned 29, and is only signed through 2012 (with an option for 2013).

Obviously, a Wright deal saves ownership a lot of money: $15 million next year alone.

Anyhow, that’s what I know. I don’t care if it is midnight on Christmas, I’ll update this blog if anything develops on the Wright front. That’s an especially easy thing for me to promise, since I’m Jewish, and used to working newsrooms on Christmas in exchange for getting covered on Yom Kippur.

But as of right now, that’s the only trade I can report.

Happy holidays, and cross your fingers.

Good morning! I trust you’ve digested the pair of financial stories. Rich Sandomir does a tremendous job on A1 of the New York Times detailing the perks owners could receive for a minority ownership stake, from quality time with Mr. Met to access to luxury suites that would otherwise be occupied by Lady Gaga. And the New York Post reported that the Mets will shut down a minor league team in the Gulf Coast League to save some money.

Short take on these: the Sandomir story lays bare just how little the team has to offer a prospective minority buyer. The Post story reinforces that while the Mets are cutting costs at the major league level, they are also cutting costs below, not reinvesting that money. Nothing new, per se, but both provide illuminating details about the crisis. Sandomir, in particular, is fantastic on those details.

But the big story yesterday was about the team’s interest in Eric Young, Jr.  The rumored deal would send Justin Turner to Colorado.

Let’s be clear: this is a win for the Mets if it happens. A simple comparison of skills makes this obvious.

Eric Young Jr.: ability to play second base, all three outfield spots at below-average levels, speed, patience

Justin Turner: ability to play second base, third base at below-average levels, small amount of power

Don’t know about you, but I’ll take the first set of skills over the second, especially given the team’s lack of backup outfield options, and David Wright at third base.

At least, that’s the only reason I can see for them to pursue Luis Martinez, the catcher recently designated for assignment by the San Diego Padres.

Martinez, 26, is right-handed, has no power whatsoever, and can hit for a decent average and control the strike zone, particularly against lefties. He’d make a perfect platoon for Thole, is what you wanted is a guy who had exactly Thole’s skills, no more, no less, just in mirror image.

I still don’t really understand why nothing was budgeted toward getting the Mets a backup catcher with a little power who could crush lefties, but Jon Rauch was deemed more important, so there’s no money left for a Kelly Shoppach-type. (That was only $1.35 million to the Red Sox, incidentally. Oh, well.)

While I have you here, I strongly encourage you to check out this site on your mobile device. Thanks to the magical James Kwansik, you’ll be glad you did. The site has been optimized for such things.

As you’ve probably heard by now, I have a new book out. It’s called Wilpon’s Folly, and it tells the story of Fred Wilpon, Bernie Madoff, how the Mets arrived at this legal/financial point, and what to expect going forward. I spend many hours poring over documents, talking to principals in and experts on the case, and I’m very proud of the work that resulted.

The Mets have responded in the time-honored way they respond when unable to deny something: character attack. That’s okay- they have a rich history of going after journalists who report something they subsequently have to admit.

The shame of it is, my strong preference is to write about a baseball team, not a legal struggle and financial death spiral. But as I’ve pointed out before, talking about the state of the Mets right now without factoring in their legal/financial struggles is like diagnosing the health of a patient while ignoring a gunshot wound. It just doesn’t make sense, doesn’t do anyone any good, and provides inaccurate analysis through omission.

That the story is also a fascinating one helps to make this work somewhat more enjoyable; but it isn’t work I sought, and I take no pleasure from writing about the decline and fall of anyone. As to the accuracy of the work, I would encourage anyone to read my work and decide for yourself, whether it is my book, my other reporting on this, or even the case I make for a particular trade/free agent signing. A writer who simply falls back on his qualifications, instead of making the persuasive argument, is a lazy writer. And when a response is a character attack, as opposed to a response to a specific raised, it’s a pretty obvious diversionary tactic.

More in a bit on Gio Gonzalez, but I felt I would be remiss not to mention this.

Color me skeptical that anyone, Sandy Alderson included, can build a winning team in 2012 with the extremely limiting financial parameters currently facing the Mets.

But if anyone can, it’s Alderson.

He needs pitching depth, as previously discussed. And he needs to do it with minor league free agents. So as targets go, Chuck James is a good bet.

James pitched to a 2.30 ERA in Triple-A last season, a 2.32 ERA in 2010. He split time between starting and relieving, so he fits the swingman who can be sent down that Alderson described earlier this week. And the price is right: no guaranteed MLB contract or spot on the 40-man roster necessary.

James is also left-handed, so if he doesn’t provide help as a starter or long reliever, he can be another lefty out of the pen. One warning, though: his MLB stats suggest he has no platoon advantage, so tread carefully on making him a second Tim Byrdak.

This isn’t signing Jose Reyes or Yu Darvish. But it is maxing out the things Alderson can do, and that story shouldn’t be lost due to the financial storm.

Just confirmed from the Mets that the team did not place a bid in the sealed bidding process for Nippon Ham Fighters hurler Yu Darvish.

Hey, it never hurts to ask.

Darvish, who projects as a frontline starting pitcher, presumably exceeded the team’s remaining player budget, which is [THIS SPACE FOR SALE].

No word from the Mets on exactly how much they didn’t bid.  The Yankees, true to form, reportedly did.

More on this story as it develops, which it won’t, since the Mets didn’t bid.

You know, unless Johan Santana can’t start the season, and then he’s your fourth starter. Or there’s another injury as well, always possible with pitchers, and then he’s your third starter.

That’s the only reasonable conclusion out of Sandy Alderson’s comments yesterday, when he pointed out something obvious- Johan Santana, off of shoulder surgery that has taken most pitchers more than a year to return from, is no sure thing to start the season- and added something puzzling,  after making it clear that he doesn’t expect any major moves in the rotation.

Here’s the comment on pitching depth:

“The problem with rotation depth is you have to hit the sweet spot. You have to find somebody who could be a swingman—because if everything goes right, we don’t have a spot in that rotation. So it’s got to be somebody who can either be a swingman out of the bullpen, or somebody who could go to Triple-A initially and maybe move up and down.

“There are some interesting names out there. We have to hit the right spot with the guy that gives us the kind of flexibility that will ultimately give us the depth. And that’s not always easy to find.

“We claimed [Jeremy] Hafner off waivers yesterday. I think he’s the kind of guy that would fit what we’re looking for in terms of depth – somebody that has options that we can move back and forth. He’s not an established name, but someone we think nonetheless might be helpful.”

Let’s break this down. Because they have five starters, they don’t want to take the chance that adding a sixth starter could produce a logjam.

Really?

First of all, Dillon Gee still has options.  And frankly, after a season of 84 ERA+ and 4.46 xFIP, he didn’t exactly make the case that he is indispensable and needs to remain in the rotation no matter what.

Second, let’s game this out. Let’s say Santana is healthy and dominating, Gee becomes a mainstay so great this spring that even keeping him as a long man is impossible to stomach, and the Mets have the unfortunate problem of a sixth starting pitcher who simply can’t fit in the rotation.  Oy, such problems. What to do?

Simple. The Mets trade a starter if stuck in that awful, never-going-to-happen position.

So yes, we know what this is really about. I hate to repeat myself on this, but the Mets are using Jeremy Hafner as sixth starter for the same reason they are using Mike Nickeas as their backup catcher.

Even a reasonable fallback plan is beyond their means right now.

The Mets gave up some outfield depth and right-handed hitting at the catcher position by non-tendering Mike Baxter and Ronny Paulino.

Baxter, a Queens native, had pop and could play the outfield corners. The move leaves the Mets in even greater need of backup plans for presumed starters Jason Bay, Andres Torres and Lucas Duda.

As for Paulino, his exit clears a path for Mike Nickeas, a good defensive catcher with a suspect bat.

The moves allow the Mets to officially add Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco to the 40-man roster, so they can quit sneaking around. Good for them!

To get a sense of what not having much money does to a team’s ability to compete, take a look at what’s going on at catcher for the Mets. (Try as I might to just write a piece about player acquisition, I think it’s an incomplete job at best if not put into financial perspective.)

The Mets have Josh Thole, a perfectly reasonable first option at catcher. He bats left-handed, has struggled (in few appearances) against left-handed pitching. But offensively, he’s above-average against righties for a catcher. So the perfect solution is to pair him with a very good right-handed hitting catcher.

And catchers who can play 60-70 games and mash lefties aren’t especially expensive, since most teams don’t have a Josh Thole already. Someone like Kelly Shoppach is a free agent, will probably get around $2 million to sign, and has a career OPS of .909 against lefties.

But just before signing his many relief pitchers, Sandy Alderson let it be known that the plan was to go with what they had at catcher. And tonight, at the non-tender deadline, the Mets are expected to cut Ronny Paulino loose.

Who is likely to fill the void? Either Mike Nickeas, a good defensive catcher who doesn’t appear able to hit, or Lucas May, one of three minor leaguers the Mets signed today. And as Ted Berg points out, May has displayed the ability to hit lefties well at a number of minor league stops.

But it is also important to put those numbers in perspective, something Major League Equivalents (MLEs) do for us.  That .339/.410/.642 line in 2010 against lefties looks great. But he did it for Alberqueque of the Pacific Coast League. What is the MLB translation for such production? .241/.308/.398. Afraid the change in levels, and the transition from the hitter-happy PCL, brings that number down quite a bit.

So let’s review, shall we? For around $2 million, they could retain Ronny Paulino- who, to be fair, got a great deal of criticism from within the team for his game-calling- or Kelly Shoppach. As mentioned, Shoppach’s career OPS against lefties is .909; Paulino’s is .860.

Or for the major league minimum, they could get Lucas May, whose best production at Triple-A against lefties still projects to just a .706 OPS.

Realistically, a major league team should have both, because if Shoppach is signed and gets injured, Plan B is necessary. So hopefully, that’s what happens. Sandy Alderson certainly knows how useful a lefty-masher as Thole backup is- he’s the one who signed Paulino to begin with last year.

However, if what Alderson effectively said turns out to be the case- they had money to spend on the bullpen, or a backup catcher, but not both-it is just a reminder that the current financial problems experienced by ownership are doing much more than just denying the fan base Jose Reyes, and will continue to erode the team’s ability to fix problems for as long as they remain.

The flurry of activity continues.

Ken Davidoff of Newsday reports that the Mets have signed Frank Francisco to a two-year contract. Jon Morosi reports the deal is for $12 million over two years. That’s a lot, but Francisco should provide decent value for the money. Still, feels like a bit of an overpay.

Francisco, 32, is a consistent strikeout pitcher (career 9.9 per 9, 9.4 per 9 in 2011) who usually walks around 3 per 9. He’s instantly supplanted Ramon Ramirez as the team’s best relief pitcher, a title he held on Twitter for around five minutes.

The Mets bullpen as a whole now looks like this:

Francisco

Rauch

Ramirez

Parnell

Byrdak

Parnell Edit: Parnell only counts once. Thanks, Gobias Industries.

Acosta

Beato

Herrera

That’s a solid group. Nice job, Sandy Alderson. Too bad the ownership can’t provide you with even a little more money; would be nice to see how you’d fix up the rest of the team.

An interesting trade appears to be close for the Mets.

New York would send Angel Pagan to the San Francisco Giants for outfielder Andres Torres and reliever Ramon Ramirez.

The trade makes a ton of sense for the Mets.

In Torres, they are getting a hitter just a year removed from posting an OPS+ of 122 while playing an extremely good center field. His offense dropped precipitously in 2011, just like Pagan’s, but Torres’ defense remained stellar. And after making just $2.2 million last year, he’ll probably check in around $3 million in arbitration; Pagan will get more like $5  million.

So it isn’t clear that Pagan is a better bet than Torres in 2012, both come with one-year commitments, and Torres is much cheaper.

But wait; there’s more.

Ramon Ramirez is a very good relief pitcher. He struck out nearly a batter an inning in 2011, walked a reasonable 3.4 per nine, and made just $1.65 million last year, putting his salary around $2.5 million in arbitration this year. He’ll instantly become the best relief pitcher on the Mets, which says a great deal about current inventory, to be sure, but reiterates that Ramirez is a help for this team.

No, they didn’t just win the pennant, for those who want to dismiss any minor move. But this is a good move for the Mets.

Multiple reports tonight have the Mets signing Jon Rauch, pending a physical.

Rauch is an extremely tall relief pitcher, and on an inexpensive one-year deal, the Mets got the kind of price-per-inch steal that will make people jealous throughout the garment district.

Rauch posted a 4.85 ERA in 2011, but that is likely the result of a home run rate that actually quadrupled from 2010. Since his fly ball rate remained pretty static, he’s a solid rebound candidate.

Jim Duquette has the deal at $3.5 million over one year. Rauch is a good bet to get some late outs. A solid signing; they needed relief pitching.

Here’s an artist’s rendering of what it will look like when Rauch stands next to Daniel Herrera.

The Mets now have the league’s tallest and shortest players under team control, having just missed out on Jonathan Broxton, baseball’s heaviest. Hopefully, a trade for 145 pound Michael Martinez of the Phillies is next on the agenda.

So the bad news is, Jose Reyes is property of the Miami Marlins. The good news?

The earth hasn’t crashed into the sun?

No, the good news (or, more appropriately, the somewhat silver lining) is that Sandy Alderson is in a position he’s familiar with. He needs to build a team on an extremely limited budget. It would be foolish to blame him for not spending money. No one asks a homeless man why he doesn’t buy tailored suits.

But he does know what he’s doing. Imagine if Omar Minaya were in charge of doing more with less- he’d sign Alex Cora to play second base and shortstop simultaneously.

So what is on Sandy’s shopping list? According to Jon Heyman, it consists of a closer, a setup man, a backup utility infielder, two backup outfielders and a catcher.  As of today, Alderson’s been told he has $10-15 million with which to do it.

But remember: assuming Mike Pelfrey and Angel Pagan return, that money needs to go a long way. They’d have eight players set to earn approximately $70 million: Johan Santana, David Wright, Jason Bay, R.A. Dickey, D.J. Carrasco, Tim Byrdak, Pelfrey and Pagan.

Even if we assume that the Mets utilize league-minimum salaries on the following: Daniel Murphy, Jon Niese, Ruben Tejada, Bobby Parnell, Ike Davis, Josh Thole, Dillon Gee, Pedro Beato and Lucas Duda- another nine players a around $4.5 million to assume first base, second base, shortstop, right field, catcher, two starting rotation slots and two bullpen slots- that means that $10-15 million needs to cover nine remaining roster slots.

Put another way, Heath Bell wasn’t walking through that door.

Accordingly, Free Agent Fit will now try and evaluate those free agents the Mets are rumored to be interested in through that framework. So no Jimmy Rollins, no C.J. Wilson. (And at those prices, probably for the best,anyway.)

I suggest, as you play Hot Stove League in your head, that you do the same.

Jose Reyes will make $3 million less per season than Carl Crawford, on a deal that lasts a year less, even though Reyes plays a more important defensive position and was a year younger at time of signing.

So you tell me: did the Marlins overpay? Or did the Mets simply let their best, most exciting player go because they didn’t have the money to sign him?

Not to depress you further, but Sandy Alderson’s full meeting with reporters Sunday night contained plenty of reason for pessimism beyond the major topic of the conversation: that Jose Reyes isn’t coming back to New York.

Listen to this answer from Alderson about whether ownership’s losses with Bernie Madoff played a part in the decision not to sign Reyes:

“Bernie Madoff and his specter are always referenced in these situations. I don’t really think Madoff has that much to do with it. But when a team loses $70 million irrespective of Bernie Madoff or anyone else, that’s probably a bigger factor in our approach to this season and the next couple (emphasis added) than anything else.”

In other words, this new austerity isn’t anything temporary. And Alderson didn’t even commit to spending the money not spent on Reyes on other players.

But what does the next couple mean? Let’s say it is the winter of 2012 and 2013. What exactly would put the Wilpon ownership group in position to, at that point, afford anything? They have a $430 million loan against the team due to be paid back in full in June 2014. Think that’s a year they can spring for more payroll? They have a loan against SNY of $450 million due back in full in June 2015. Think that’s a year they can afford anything? And we’re not even touching the $600 million they still owe, in bi-annual increments of around $25 million every six months, nor any judgment against them in the lawsuit brought by Irving Picard, trustee for the Bernie Madoff victims. Or the still-being-negotiated deal with minority investors, which would call for the Mets to come up with around $170 million in 2017. That sounds like a year they’ll increase spending, right?

If it helps any, all that is what makes it unlikely they’ll be around as owners to exercise such draconian measures over even the medium-term.

But we’ll have more here on the potential signing of Matt Capps. And I mean that in the largest possible sense, until the day new owners take over the team.