ESPN’s Jayson Stark caused a fuss yesterday by discussing a potential Mets-Phillies trade. The parameters: pitcher Vance Worley, outfielder Domonic Brown and at least another top piece for David Wright.
Before we get into the specifics here, a few words of warning about those who would dismiss the rumor for one reason or another.
To those who would take issue with Stark, since he is a Philly guy, I’d respond: you aren’t paying attention. Stark is one of the best, most plugged-in writers in baseball, and has been for decades. Whether his loyalties as a fan are with the Phillies, or any team, it is his professional responsibility to get it right. Over and over again, he does. That’s what matters.
And for those who claim the Mets will suffer an attendance hit by dealing Wright- have you been paying attention since 2009? Attendance went from 3.1 million in 2009 to 2.56 million in 2010 to 2.35 million in 2011. But attendance, absent Reyes, won’t keep dipping in 2012 because the Mets keep Wright? I’m sorry, but “Hey, we didn’t lose both cornerstones!” isn’t a slogan bringing fans into Citi Field in droves.
As for the idea that if the Mets trade Wright, it shouldn’t be in-division: I don’t get it. Sure, the Phillies are a direct rival, so giving them David Wright makes no sense. But the Mets wouldn’t be giving Philly anything. They’d be trading. And the essential aspect of a swap is that you are getting something in return. Moreover, if you are making the trade, you at least think you are receiving more than you are giving up.
By that standard, isn’t an in-division trade ALWAYS better than a trade with, say, someone in the AL West? It is the equivalent of an in-division game: you get to help yourself and hurt an opponent at once! I’d also bet on Sandy Alderson over Ruben Amaro, Jr. in trade negotiations.
The proposed trade would do that, too, since the Phillies are rapidly reaching their expiration date. With some of the best starting pitching in recent memory, the Phillies won 102 games despite a below-average offense. In other words, this Phillies team will rise and fall on the performance of its aging starting pitching staff. Whether you think that happens in 2012 or 2013, it is likely to happen sooner than later, especially as the offense continues to deteriorate. The bloated salaries on the books also limit Philadelphia’s ability to retool. They’ve largely emptied the farm system, and haven’t been spending on player development over the last few years. Now, can David Wright help delay that offensive downturn? Yes, but he can’t make up for the declines of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins (if he even returns) all by himself.
Meanwhile, if Jose Reyes doesn’t return, and the smart money says he doesn’t, the Mets aren’t realistically looking to contend in 2012, and probably not 2013, either. In other words, they’d be getting young talent in Worley, who’d instantly become a top-of-the-rotation starter for the Mets, and Domonic Brown, who is valuable if he plays right field, super-valuable if he can stick in center field. By 2014, Wright is on his next contract, anyway- and 2013 if he gets traded, since that voids his 2013 club option.
I do feel the need to put this standard caveat in my analysis- the “this could all be avoided if ownership still had the capacity to spend generously on MLB salary, allowing them to keep Wright/Reyes, augment them, while also spending money to properly develop young talent, you know, like a big market team should” caveat. I’m providing analysis based on what is- but I don’t want people to forget that this was no more inevitable than any other man-made crisis.
So with that caveat, good luck, Sandy Alderson. If significant talent can be had for Wright, make the deal.
10 Comments
Worley, Brown, and a top prospect is a deal NY has to make, if it can. Question is, does Philly want to add another 15 mil to an already top-heavy payroll?
This deal would be highway robbery by the Mets. But I disagree with you that the Mets couldn’t compete in 2012 if they do this deal. Brown is ready (or close to it). Worley is ready. If they get May in the deal, May is almost ready. If the Mets add some bullpen depth or starting depth they will be a much better team than they were in 2011 EVEN IF they let Reyes go and get a draft pick, as they still Nuwenheis, Duda, Murphy, Davis offensively. No no no this deal is terrific from a Mets point of view-question is would the Phils do it
Brown hasn’t done anything yet. There have even been rumors that the Phils are so unhappy with how he looked this yr, they will put him back in the minors.
And Worley? Who knows, he had a solid year, but could be a flash in the pan or just a situation where being on a great team in a great situation rubs off… ala JA Happ who looked great for the Phils and terrible in Houston after he was dealt.
Meanwhile, Wright gives Philly the best 3b they’ve had in about a decade, gives them a much needed bat and solidifies their lineup.
If Wright gets traded…especially to Philly…its going to have to take a lot more than Brown and Worley
The man said Brown, Worley, “…and at least another top piece.”
I’d much rather them let Wright play in “New Shea” before they trade him to the Phillies, where he would likely rake in their little league stadium. And Worley and Brown? I don’t want Worley, we have enough prospects better than Worley who should be ready soon enough, and I’m not sold on Dom Brown, not for right at least. Not happening, not now.
Wright could bat .320, hit 30 homers and this team still will finish near the bottom. He’ll also contribute 30 errors and (despite being a nice guy,) contributes precious little enthusiasm and leadership. Keep Reyes. Time for changes and some excitement.
We’d love to have Wright esp. if you figure we have maybe 3 more years of good contention-with that said dom brown blows-he already sealed his fate here when he didn’t run out a possible single fans boo’d the piss out of him and his defense has more holes that a lesbian porn movie-he’s a cry baby who thinks he’s the sh#t and I don’t think mets fans want another ball bag after your clearly going in another direction-vance is ok but remember he is the 5th starter in this line up-with that said i’ll take that trade anyday
fillyfan-more holes than a lesbo porn flick-that was good
This is actually has potential to be a great deal for both sides. Phils fans hate Brown. I think he still has a high ceiling. Mets could put him in CF in place of Pagan, though I’m not sure about his defense. For the Mets Duda and Nuwenehis would round out that outfield which IMO could be very very good. Phils dont need another OF as they have Victorino, Pence, and Mayberry.
Also Phils dont need Worley or May and the Mets I am sure would really like to take them of the Phils hands.
To comment to LG about Happ-Happ is still a very good pitcher. Sure he had a high ERA but he still struck a lot of people out. Hmmm a lefty with 1 bad season? If he can get his walks down he can be a very very capable starter. I wouldn’t mind giving him a second chance on a team
Point is this could be a great trade for both sides, but especially for the Mets IMO (and no I’m not a Met fan)
Depending on the unnamed pieces the Met’s got to make this deal. And it might make some sense for the Phillies since their window is closing very rapidly.
The Met’s aren’t a contender in 2012 even if they sign Reyes. They begin to get interesting in 2013 and potentially a contender in 2014, just when right is on the way out.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts!