Yes, I’m as disgusted by this idea as you are. But it’s been raised again, this time by Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. Renck writes:
“Opposing executives expect the Rockies to be aggressive in their pursuit of the Mets’ David Wright. The Mets have said he’s not available, but that could change if they commit to re-sign free- agent shortstop Jose Reyes for big money. Wright, however, is not without his issues. Though just 28, he has dealt with a back injury that limited him to only 102 games last season. Wright is owed $15 million next year with a $16 million club option for 2013 that can be voided if the Mets trade him. Hitting anywhere but Citi Field would likely boost Wright’s numbers.”
Look, Wright is obviously a good fit with the Rockies- like Jose Reyes, he’s a good fit pretty much anywhere, since he’s one of the best players at his position. Still, that doesn’t mean it won’t make sense to trade him, given certain other realities. Here are some things that are worth keeping in mind:
“Should the Mets trade David Wright?” is not a binary question. I cannot stress this first point enough. Trade him or don’t trade him has everything to do with what the Mets can get for him in return, and what the overall plan for the roster is. I would actually argue the opposite of what Renck does- that it is precisely if the Mets don’t sign Jose Reyes that the prospect of dealing Wright starts to make more sense.
(And let’s not pretend this wasn’t all avoidable, by the way. It only makes sense not to keep your developed superstars in their 20s if you are suffering from the kind of financial problems that the Mets are.)
But if Reyes and his 5.8 WAR (wins above replacement) sign elsewhere, here’s a list of the other possible returning 2011 Mets among offensive players, ranked by WAR: Daniel Murphy (1.9), Ruben Tejada (1.6), David Wright (1.4), Ike Davis (1.3), Lucas Duda (0.8), Jason Bay (0.6), Nick Evans (0.6), Jason Pridie (0.6), Josh Thole (0.5), Justin Turner (0.3), Scott Hairston (0.2), Angel Pagan (0.2).
Leave aside the fact that Nick Evans was worth as much in 194 plate appearances as Jason Bay was in 509 plate appearances for a moment. What do we see there? Well, for one thing, the most valuable 2011 everyday Met other than Reyes (and the dearly departed Carlos Beltran, at 3.4 in just over half a season) was Daniel Murphy, who would slot in well at third base. He appears to play the position well, his bat is quite valuable at the position, and he’s still a low-cost alternative.
But the more significant takeaway is how little the Mets have in terms of offensive talent at this point should Reyes leave. they don’t have a catcher with more than half a win. Jason Pridie was their most valuable center fielder, and was still short of a win.
So the question starts to change. It isn’t whether the two years that remain on David Wright’s contract with the Mets are valuable. It is whether the Mets are in any position to take advantage of that value. The argument against dealing him has always been that due to a clause in his contract, if he is traded, his 2013 option held by the Mets is voided. Simply, he’s got two years left with the Mets- but any other team gets him, and they control him for only one year. So he has more inherent value to the Mets, right?
Well, no. Not if the Mets are planning for 2014, and another team sees Wright as a strong fit in 2012.
Mike Silva, over at New York Baseball Digest, floats a trade idea with Colorado:
“There are three players I would target from the Rockies if I were Sandy Alderson: centerfielder Dexter Fowler, catcher Wilin Rosario, and one of their top pitching prospects from the group LHP Tyler Matzek, RHP Chad Bettis, and LHP Drew Pomeranz.”
Fowler’s defensive metrics aren’t great, but I’d be reluctant to read too much into them- and entering his age 26 season, I like his bat to get even better. I don’t love Rosario’s 2011 offensive regression, but he can handle the position defensively, while catchers often develop later offensively. Most important would be the pitcher- Pomeranz is ready to sit atop the 2012 New York rotation now.
But let’s just remember here: this is not part of some great master plan. This is a Plan B, necessary because the Plan A anyone rational would choose: keep your 28-year-old star players at hard to fill positions and build around them- has become untenable financially.
25 Comments
HM, you say that it makes less sense to trade Wright if the Mets sign Reyes than if they don’t.
But it seems to me that one problem with the Mets roster is that there is too much of the payroll tied up in too few players, given what we’ve been told about what the overall payroll will be. If the Mets sign Reyes, that exacerbates that problem still further. It may be difficult for Alderson to contemplate keeping both Wright and Reyes long-term, at least so long as Santana and Bay are on the Mets’ books at least through 2013. And if Wright is to be traded, it makes more sense to do it now than to wait.
And one other thing: Trading Wright (acknowledging that it depends on who he nets in return) would really solve the Daniel Murphy problem. I think that Murphy can be a passable (not great) defender at 3B, and having him in the everyday lineup would be a real plus for the Mets. I have never been enthused about putting Murphy at 2B, especially after seeing him seriously injured twice at that position (never mind the fact that he will never be a good defender there). And the way he hit in 2010 makes me think that his talent is wasted as a part-time player.
So, if trading Wright would enable the Mets to fill 2-3 other holes, it seems to me an idea worth taking seriously.
Wright’s offensive numbers in Colorado would really escalate.
I happen to think Murphy would be fine at second base- his defense has been solid there, per both eyes and defensive metrics. But there’s no question it would be an easier fit to play him at 3B.
And as far as payroll goes, consider that if the Mets merely stayed at $145 million, they’d easily have room to keep both Wright/Reyes and build a team around them, even if Santana/Bay contribute nothing in 2012-13. The payroll issue is the team’s need to cut it significantly. This is a self-created problem.
But a self-created problem is still a problem. . . .
The Mets, perhaps not above all else, but in addition to everything else, need an on-field leader. They seem to have a bunch of nice guys, which is good, but this team needs someone who will back Collins up and give him a break once n a while. I couldn’t believe my eyes when Beltran FINALLY started to fill this role in his waning days.
And lest I forget, it might be nice to have a pitching coach who demands that the staff starts to throw inside and tight now and again. As an example, Parnell’s major league career may depend on it.
And, I’m getting a bit tired of Wright being often buzzed and no retaliation from the staff. And that includes his buddy, Pelfry.
No disagreement, acoustic567. I just think it is important for everyone to keep this in context. Even with Santana/Bay deals, it is the changing financial circumstances of ownership that create the need to keep Wright OR Reyes.
Keep this in context: This is New York and this team, fully constituted as it is, couldn’t even scare .500
The next step is to get rid of Wright or Reyes. The next step is to significantly cut payroll. The next step is to fill in the blanks with talent-weary, inexpensive castoffs to fill uniforms. The next step is cheaper seats and declining attendance. The next step is losing even more money, necessitating more of the same. The above is what you keep in context. Billy Beane, according to the NY Times, with his fan shrinkage, inefficient philosophy and oncoming depression, is thinking about a new life of fly-fishing with Bobby Knight and Brett Favre. Wilpon should make a visit to L.L. Bean, charge himself a pole, and join them.
I would trade Wright for Pomeranz in a heartbeat. Based on Wright’s production the past three seasons, he’s no longer the MVP-caliber 3B that he was from 2005-08. He may still have two good seasons left in him for the duration of his contract, but the Mets aren’t contending in 2012 and even 2013 may be a stretch. Getting a stud pitching prospect like Pomeranz, who’ll have major league experience by 2013 to top a rotation with guys like Harvey and Wheeler would be an enormous coup for the Mets.
One part of the equation that always gets neglected in discussions about trading David Wright: the $15 Million he is owed in 2012. His new team is going to have to pay that on top of giving up big-time prospects. That’s why I don’t think he’s going anywhere.
These players might be fan favorites but they haven’t given us any substantial wins.
Be smart, blow it up and start over, enjoy the success for years to come
We won 77 games with them, I’m sure we can win 77 games without them
It’s a terrible situation that we may not be able to keep our two, still young, home grown stars because we are payroll constrained (thanks Bernie!) and because of the insane decision to give Bay a super star contract for someone who had only been a complimentary player on a good team. So, essentially we are trading Reyes and Wright for Jason Bay! We, as Met fans, have complained for years that this ownership group is embarrassed of our “lack of history” and icons. By not signing Reyes and trading Wright, the prophecy remains self-fulfilled. #5 and #7 should be retired one day after 15+ years as Mets. Just like #18 and #16 should have been (and I think should still be retired along with #17 and # 8).
I say trade Wright and get a good young pitcher, Keep Reyes and make the new core your building around Ike Davis, Jose Reyes, Daniel Murphy (3B), Rubin Teyada, Lucas Duda and the top young pitcher you get in return for Wright. Then in 2013 or late 2012 you add a home grown pitcher or two. All in all this makes for a better team. But would the Rockies part with enough talent to make this happen is the key. If they would I hope the Mets pull the trigger.
I am going to say I trust Sandy to be a good baseball man. Let’s not rule out him doing some creative trading this off season. I think he fully understands the feeling of the fans for Wright and Reyes. That this is NY and he can’t blow it up and start from scratch. He has been good at dumping dead wood. Maybe he can find a taker for Bay, even if it means we eat half his contract. Bay at 9 million may be worth a bet by Boston or the Rockies. Pelf should go. That would save 15 million next year add on to the 41 million you are coming down Ollie, Louie, Beltran and Krod. Starting pitching you lnly need a fill in the blank 5th starter and resign reyes and that still leaves him about 10 plus million to spend. Keeping in mind we have some good pitching prospects that may be ready by mid next year. Johan and Ike add about 10 more wines from what we had this year. Alos, one of these years things have break our way or at least not against us and the future could start improving mid to late next year. I am a long time Mets fan. I have to believe!
It’s been recently reported that the Wilpons, rather than losing money with Madoff, actually MADE 300 million. They still have not paid any “clawback” dollars, so they theoretically still have this money. In addition, Major League baseball loaned them 25 million to “shore up their finances,” indicating that they were in deep trouble well before the Madoff scandal erupted. The judge’s latest decision indicates that, in a worst-case scenario, they will have to pay back only the extra 300 million that they supposedly earned illegitimately. Now, hiding behind the Madoff excuse, they’ve decided to give NY an underfunded, rag-tag team.
I hate seeing great players traded, but its a necessary to improve your team alot of times, as long as you can get a good value out of him. I wouldn’t mind seeing Wright on the cubs.
Fred, to Jeff and Katz: “Good news! Nineteen comments on Howie’s blog. We’re drumming up interest.
I think if the Rockies put Fowler, Rosario, and Pomeranz out there as an offer for Wright, I’m not sure Alderson would think twice. I love Wright, but let’s be honest, that’s a pretty good deal for a rebuilding franchise. Really good actually.
I don’t like their names. Sounds too much like a law firm.
Great back-and-forth here. To briefly weigh in:
1. The Wilpon/Katz group had $500+ million in assets with Bernie Madoff disappear overnight. That had huge financial ramifications, because they’d used that as collateral in a large number of their other deals, meaning it had to be replaced immediately, and it served as their cash for expenses, meaning they suddenly had far less flexibility to spend.
I am not arguing that they weren’t net winners. No one is. But the reality is they have far less to spend than their public posture would indicate, not more.
2. I agree- Fowler/Rosario/Pomeranz would be pretty solid return for David Wright.
3. It is shameful to consider 5 and 7 not retired on the left field wall. Could be the reality. At least Ed Kranepool will get to keep the franchise hits record.
I’ve been saying it over and over again on every Mets-related site and will say it until I am blue (and orange) in the face. SIGN REYES.
Trade Wright and Pelfrey to COL for a windfall of prospects. They all but announced to the world that they want David and are now saying they covet “an innings-eater type SP”.
The trade would look something like this :
TO COL : 3B David Wright
SP Mike Pelfrey
IF Josh Satin
and a throw-in RP DJ Carrasco or Acosta or even Schwinden
TO NYM : CL Huston Street
C Wilin Rosario (their #1 prospect, and #3 C per MLB.com)
3B Nolan Arenado (their #4 prospect, and #8 3B per MLB.com)
LHP Tyler Matzek (their #5 prospect, and #9 LHP per MLB.com)
OF Kyle Parker (their # 6 prospect, a former 2 sport-star and Clemson QB)
Parker’s line @ Single A 2011 : .285 Avg , 75 R, 23 2B, 21 HR, 95 RBI, .367 OBP, .483 SLG
Trade OF Jason Bay to CHC for SP Carlos Zambrano (owed $18 mill in 2012 and in walk year)
Sign CF CoCo Crisp as a stop-gap .
Sign Grady Sizemore to a 2-yr incentive-laden deal and put him in LF,
if CLE does not pick up opt. If he is injured you bring up Capt. Kirk.
or move Pagan to LF.
Lineup : SS Reyes Rotation: SP Santana
2B Tejada SP Zambrano
3B Murphy SP Niese
1B Davis SP Dickey
RF Duda SP Gee
LF Sizemore/ Pagan
C Thole/ Rosario
CF Crisp/ Pagan
BN Pagan Bullpen: CL Street
BN Evans SU Parnell
BN Turner RP Beato
BN Nickeas RP Byrdak
BN Nieuwenhuis RP Herrera
BN Pridie RP Acosta/ Stinson
LR/6 Capuano
There’s a lot to like in that plan. But why would the Cubs trade Zambrano for Bay, when Bay is owed $35 million ($16MM in 2012, $16MM in 2013 and a $3MM buyout in 2014) and Zambrano has just $18MM left?
I’m also not sure the Rockies would give up nearly that much for Wright.
Zambrano and Milledge. May as well bring back Bobby Bonilla and Vince Coleman as a third and fourth for in-game locker room poker.