So much of the conversation this week, with the 2011 season over, has centered around what the team’s payroll is likely to be in 2012. Sandy Alderson has stood by a number between $100-110 million. And a number of people have taken great pains to point out that hey, lots of teams can win at that level- only two of the eight playoff teams spent more than $110 million this year!
There’s a huge problem with that, however. Take a look at those rosters: how many contracts do you see akin to Jason Bay’s, who provided a 0.6 WAR this year, and is scheduled to make $16 million next year? Or Johan Santana, who provided zero innings, and is set to make $24 million next year? Not many. Detroit had about $23 million with Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez, making their effective payroll around $88 million. Texas, Milwaukee, Arizona and Tampa Bay had nothing like that. The Yankees had A.J. Burnett while the Phillies had Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge, but again, their overall payrolls were so high that their effective payrolls were still way above $110 million.
Now, Santana may recover from a complicated shoulder surgery and pitch 200 innings. Jason Bay may regain his 2009 form. But neither one is particularly worth betting on. And you can be sure that Sandy Alderson knows he can’t build a team around those assumptions.
So effectively, the number he has to build next year’s team, even at $110 million, is really $70 million. And unlike Arizona and Tampa Bay, both of whom have build through the draft for years, the Alderson Mets have been doing that for exactly one draft. That’s not Alderson’s fault, of course- he and his crew handled the only draft they had extremely well. But that’s not going to help them in 2012.
Now, as we’ll get into shortly, it isn’t necessarily clear that outside of Jose Reyes, the Mets have many compelling reasons within this free agent class to spend the $40-50 million that will get them from next season’s commitments (Bay + Santana + Wright + Dickey + Carrasco = $60.5 million) to $110 million. That’s the other problem- those playoff teams, in addition to spending more effective payroll than the Mets even can next season, didn’t spend the lion’s share of that payroll on free agents. Now, simply bringing many of the other 2011 Mets players back, raises, arbitration, etc., will raise that number from $60.5 million to around $75 million, give or take a Pagan. But that’s still a large percentage to spend on a weak free agent class.
3 Comments
On the other hand, total combined outlays for Niese, Beato, Parnell, Thole, Duda, Murphy, Davis, Tejada and Turner is under 4 million. If this “Moneyball” graduate and his “Moneyball” managing associates are as smart as they have been promoted to be, they’ll have dollars to work with in fielding a young, competitive, watchable team.
The 2011 team was a fun team to watch. Young, talented players looking to make their mark don’t cost that much.
I’d rather watch a scrappy, young, improving, energetic .500 team that fights every night and shows promise than a perpetual second- place contender with the likes of Beltran, Ollie Perez, Moises Alou, Kris Benson, Bobby Bonilla, Luis Castillo, Pelfrey, and others of their ilk. And they should have jettisoned the lethargic, can’t- run- out- a ground ball, uninspiring Fernando Martinez when they could have received something for him.
Beltran, despite all his talents, only in his final months here barely STARTED to show some leadership. The fans will back a hustling, forward-looking team with personality. Despite a pathetic offensive year, Jason Bay remained somehow still watchable because of his hustle. We need more Pete Rose wannabees.