The LoHud Mets Blog

So much of the conversation this week, with the 2011 season over, has centered around what the team’s payroll is likely to be in 2012. Sandy Alderson has stood by a number between $100-110 million. And a number of people have taken great pains to point out that hey, lots of teams can win at that level- only two of the eight playoff teams spent more than $110 million this year!

There’s a huge problem with that, however. Take a look at those rosters: how many contracts do you see akin to Jason Bay’s, who provided a 0.6 WAR this year, and is scheduled to make $16 million next year? Or Johan Santana, who provided zero innings, and is set to make $24 million next year? Not many. Detroit had about $23 million with Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez, making their effective payroll around $88 million.  Texas, Milwaukee, Arizona and Tampa Bay had nothing like that. The Yankees had A.J. Burnett while the Phillies had Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge, but again, their overall payrolls were so high that their effective payrolls were still way above $110 million.

Now, Santana may recover from a complicated shoulder surgery and pitch 200 innings. Jason Bay may regain his 2009 form. But neither one is particularly worth betting on. And you can be sure that Sandy Alderson knows he can’t build a team around those assumptions.

So effectively, the number he has to build next year’s team, even at $110 million, is really $70 million. And unlike Arizona and Tampa Bay, both of whom have build through the draft for years, the Alderson Mets have been doing that for exactly one draft. That’s not Alderson’s fault, of course- he and his crew handled the only draft they had extremely well. But that’s not going to help them in 2012.

Now, as we’ll get into shortly, it isn’t necessarily clear that outside of Jose Reyes, the Mets have many compelling reasons within this free agent class to spend the $40-50 million that will get them from next season’s commitments (Bay + Santana + Wright + Dickey + Carrasco = $60.5 million) to $110 million. That’s the other problem- those playoff teams, in addition to spending more effective payroll than the Mets even can next season, didn’t spend the lion’s share of that payroll on free agents. Now, simply bringing many of the other 2011 Mets players back, raises, arbitration, etc., will raise that number from $60.5 million to around $75 million, give or take a Pagan. But that’s still a large percentage to spend on a weak free agent class.

Ryan Braun’s inexplicable decision not to get one hit, then sit out (he’d actually have needed three hits at least) means that Jose Reyes is your 2011 batting champ, at .337. He’s the first Met to accomplish the feat.

Dave Magadan, Cleon Jones, Ryan Thompson, John Olerud and Tim Spehr all failed to do it, with some in that group coming closer than others.

For Reyes, goodbye

For Batista, one last gem

For Baxter, a start

Jose Reyes bunted for a base hit in the first, then came out of the game. Mets fans were denied a chance to see him one last time (contract pending), or even cheer him at shortstop. He finishes the year at .3374 in batting, meaning Ryan Braun can pass him with a 3-for-4 tonight.

John Updike wasn’t here to record it, and that’s probably best for him. Plenty of boos when Reyes came out of the game.

If this is goodbye

Reyes gives fans a pair of

Long shot memories

In case you missed it, I had a piece in the Sunday New York Times discussing the myth of Citi Field hurting the New York Met hitters. But in a must-read Q & A GM Sandy Alderson did with Newsday’s Ken Davidoff, Alderson raised a different issue.

“As [Mets pitching coach] Dan Warthen has said, a park like this is not even in the best interest of the pitchers. You can develop a habit or a tendency that can impact you on the road at parks that aren’t forgiving to pitchers,” Alderson said.

Let’s take a closer look at just that possibility. In three years of pitching at Citi Field, the Mets’ pitchers have ranked 11th in the NL (2009), 14th in the NL (2010), and 16th in the NL (2011) in road OPS allowed. One can compare that to the home rankings of seventh, sixth and ninth, but that doesn’t provide a ton of clarity, since the home park doesn’t offer the presumably neutral environment that the road does (all teams are playing road games in roughly the same environments- home parks vary widely). What we do know is that Met pitchers aren’t succeeding on the road. That’s more evidence of a need for a change than what exists for Met hitters at home, whose success is in line with the typical home field advantage.

Alderson has also raised the issue of more offense leading to more ticket sales, and while that can be read as an altruistic way of pleasing fans, it is worth remembering that his or any GM’s job is easier with each additional dollar that comes in. Put another way: a better offensive environment won’t lead to a better net offensive gain-the opponents get to hit at new Citi Field, too. But if 10 percent more fans come to see the action, the Mets have 10 percent more to spend on players- and that could lead to a net offensive gain.

Consider me skeptical that more offense can do anything against the fierce headwinds Met attendance is facing heading into 2012. I’m not high on the slogan, “The 2012 Mets: Come Watch Us Lose, 8-6!”

But Alderson’s comments suggest that while the public sentiment for changing the dimensions of Citi Field comes from trying to improve the offensive production of current Mets, the actual rationale is about nearly everything else.

Is Stinson the goat?

Or Reyes, thrown out at third?

Evans? Or Collins?

It should come as no surprise that RA Dickey, who is basically the Dos Equis guy with a knuckleball, would post an interesting statistical profile. Seeing him pitch a no-hitter into the seventh inning, only to come away with a no-decision once again, I wondered: just how anomalous was his season, with a 4.8 WAR (wins above replacement), and yet just eight victories to show for it?

Going back to 1980, among pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched, just four pitchers have posted higher WAR than Dickey’s 2011 total of 4.8 with no more than eight wins to show for it. Jim Abbott’s 1992 (7-15 record, 5.5 WAR) tops the list, while a season I thought would be up there, Nolan Ryan’s 1987 (8-16 record, 5.5) is tied with Abbott’s. I recall having my first doubts about the usefulness of W-L records during that season. I assume no one actually thinks Ryan was somehow deficient in racking up victories- his career total, after all, was 324.

In third place stands Tom Candiotti’s 1993 (8-10 record, 5.3 WAR), and fourth place is Joey Hamilton’s 1995 (6-9 record, 4.9 WAR). Candiotti was a hard-luck pitcher for much of his career- in two seasons other than 1993, he led the league in losses- while Hamilton won 15 games the season after his 6-9 year, despite a WAR around half as positive.

But the pitcher just below Dickey on the list is probably the best example of how W-L records are completely a function of the team around pitchers. Bob Welch, in 1986, pitched to a 7-13 record with the Dodgers, despite a 4.5 WAR. He threw 235 innings. Four years later, Welch pitched to a 27-6 record with the A’s, posting a 2.5 WAR. He threw 238.1 innings.

It will please fans, RA Dickey and the Mets if the 2015 Mets are as impressive as the 1990 A’s. The good news is, both teams stand a reasonable chance of having been built by the same General Manager: Sandy Alderson.

Pelfrey rocked once more

A solid series, and yet

Catching Phils? Still tough

A competent Gee

Bests bumbling Phils defense

Meaningless, but fun

Dickey near perfect

Pascucci draws Mets even

Wright strikes winning blow

Tonight’s game against the Phillies has been rescheduled, meaning I won’t need to watch the game on delay after the 7:40 showing of Moneyball I’m about to see.

Tomorrow, the Mets will play a doubleheader, with the tickets from tonight’s game good for the 7:10 start. The 1:10 start will proceed as usual, and require separate admission.

Guess it was more important to milk fans for a little more money with Jose Reyes as a guaranteed draw.

Sunday will now be a 2:10 PM start, FYI. 

Mets: out of nowhere

Cards: flying to October

Harris: shoots them dead

September pleasures

Watching different arm each night

Blow another game