“He thinks he’s going to get Carl Crawford money. He’s had everything wrong with him. He won’t get it.” – Fred Wilpon
“The guy just can’t stay healthy,” an official of one of those teams told [Jayson Stark] this week. “He’s a great player, but he just can’t stay healthy. He’s the kind of guy who really shouldn’t get any more than a three-year deal. The Mets might give him five, but … that would feel way too risky for me.” Rumblings, Jayson Stark, ESPN.com
Alex Rodriguez, 1999: 129 games
Alex Rodriguez, 2000: 148 games
Alex Rodriguez, average games 1999-2000: 138.5
Alex Rodriguez, number of 150-game full seasons through 2000: 1
Alex Rodriguez, contract signed winter 2000: 10 years, $252 million
Jose Reyes, 2010: 133 games
Jose Reyes, 2011 pace: 138 games
Jose Reyes, average games 2010-2011 (estimated): 135.5
Jose Reyes, number of 150-game full seasons through 2011: 4
Jose Reyes, contract signed winter 2011: ??????????
Don’t get me wrong: Rodriguez was a better player, and younger. Reyes does have the 36-game 2009 campaign on his resume, though I am loath to blame that on Reyes’ durability with so many other factors involved (doctors misdiagnosing, pressure to prematurely return).
The point is that if health is the thing that is supposed to keep Jose Reyes from getting massive years and dollars this offseason- well, a similar health background sure didn’t keep A-Rod from getting the richest contract in the history of the sport (only exceeded by the subsequent deal he signed himself).
My strong suspicion is, assuming he returns in a similar amount of time to his first hamstring injury and plays out the season, that it won’t stop Jose Reyes from getting big money and many years this winter, either.
1 Comment
A big stretch to describe them as having “similar” health backgrounds. ARod had higher avg. games played for 5, 4, and especially 3 year period prior to free agency. And though you acknowledge that he was younger, he was 3 years younger than Reyes will be, which is huge. Not to mention that Reyes had nagging leg injuries early in his career, though perhaps fair to forget about those since he had 4 healthy seasons after dealing with those. But speed is also a much bigger part of Reyes’s value than was for A-Rod. In 2000 you could fairly have said if ARod lost some speed and range, convert him to a less demanding position (how about 3B?) and he’ll still have more than enough offensive potency to offset the loss in speed and higher replacement value. Not so much for Reyes.