The LoHud Mets Blog

Heroic Dickey throws with heel torn asunder

Preventing the Pirates from offensive plunder

His line, thanks to eighth, was slightly less fetching

As Mets lose another one after fan stretching

So the Adam Rubin report that has the Mets entertaining a trade of David Wright, using the Wright salary to sign Jose Reyes, is an interesting one.

For one thing, Rubin’s source points out that the Mets simply don’t have money for both, and that certainly appears to be the case. Either they don’t actually have the money, period, or else they simply may not want to spend so much of their 2012 salary on four players- Wright, Reyes, Jason Bay and Johan Santana.

So put it another way: what could keep Wright and Reyes together would be a massive enough renaissance from Santana and/or Bay that someone will take on at least a portion of those contracts. Unlikely, I know, but Mets fans need to root for both of them for this reason as much as any.

But where Rubin’s source lost me, logic-wise, was that now is the time to trade Wright. For the first time in his career, his durability has been compromised. And his performance, pre-DL, was easily the worst of his career. And if he comes back and finishes strong, the rationale for dealing him-that he’s a non-superstar making superstar money- becomes moot.

Also? I respectfully disagree with the source that Reyes won’t get “monster money”, unless this is not a reference to a Carl Crawford-level deal, and instead to a currency with pictures of zombies on it. I guess time will tell, but I don’t see why a younger Crawford who plays a far more premium position won’t get at least as much as Crawford did.

Still, the basic point is vital- if the Mets can only keep Reyes or Wright, as ludicrous as it is that this should be the case, it behooves them to evaluate it, rather than letting the arbitrary end of Reyes’ deal decide for them.

But one other point that I thought of just before the Rubin piece ran. Starting Daniel Murphy at third base, if you consider Murphy the better option going forward than Justin Turner (and I do, as I wrote earlier today on this blog), doesn’t make a lot of sense. After all, Wright is back soon, signed long-term, while second base is the position that needs filling.

Alternatively, if there’s a chance that third base will be open, then the Mets would be foolish not to try Murphy at third.

Naturally, they’d be pretty foolish, in ordinary times, to give up either Wright or Reyes. But as we all know by now, these just aren’t ordinary times for the Mets.

Look, I don’t wish to step on the adulation of a folk hero. And Justin Turner, with his 21 RBI in 99 at-bats, is justifiably the folk hero at the moment for the New York Mets.

But I think that obscures a more interesting longer-term question: what does that mean for the team at second base?

Daniel Murphy, to my mind, is still the best choice the organization has going forward.

Let’s take a look inside Turner’s numbers. He’s currently at a slash line of .337/.384/.467, which is terrific. It’s good for an OPS+ of 138. But he’s doing it with a batting average on balls in play of .380. Not only is that unlikely to continue for anyone, it represents a higher BABIP for Turner than he’s posted at any level since rookie ball.

Meanwhile, Daniel Murphy has settled in as a major league hitter right between his 2008 and 2009 numbers. For the year, he’s at .278/.337/.418, good for an OPS+ of 111. Unlike Turner, he’s done it with a sustainable BABIP of .299, right in line with his .302 career BABIP mark.

And while the conventional wisdom is that Turner has starred at second base while Murphy has erred, the defensive metrics actually like Murphy’s performance at the position a good bit more than Turner’s. This is not to say it is predictive, given the small sample. But it certainly doesn’t provide any evidence that Murphy can’t play second base, and it seems he’d be likelier to improve than regress as he becomes more familiar with the position.

This is all moot right now, and probably will be until Ike Davis returns, since Murphy is the best option on the big league roster to play first base, too. It is worth noting, however, that Lucas Duda has been tearing up Triple-A since returning from his back injury. So if Davis is out for the long-term, bringing up Duda and moving Murphy to second base wouldn’t be a bad idea at all. Turner remains at third until David Wright returns, then becomes a strong utility infielder.

But that shouldn’t be Murphy’s fate. Second basemen who can handle the position and post an OPS+ significantly above average aren’t easy to find. Don’t believe me? Take a look at the team’s recent entries at the position. Murphy deserves a chance to hold the position. Turner’s results are likely fleeting. But the evidence is piling up that Daniel Murphy, Second Baseman is for real.

Pirates at Citi seems pre-ordained fate

This time the victims of Gee fanning eight

Thole’s bat finally showing signs of zest

While K-Rod draws closer to games-finished vest

Sad news from the Mets, as Jose Reyes just learned that his grandmother passed away. He’ll be on leave for 3-7 days, as per the bereavement leave policy.

The Mets have yet to name a replacement on the roster, but this could be the means by which they replace RA Dickey for tomorrow’s scheduled start without putting him on the DL. This way, if he only needs to miss one outing, they wouldn’t lose him for the full 15 days. More as information becomes available.

UPDATE: Terry Collins says Dickey will make his start. The Mets may still call a pitcher up to shadow Dickey, though this is just speculation on my part.

UPDATE II: Bobby Parnell will replace Reyes on the roster. So it is the beleaguered bullpen that gets the temporary boost.

Last time out, Mets had been blanked by Vance Worley

This time they clubbed him, not slowly, but surely

Reyes twice tripled, a vision so grand

His agent may get a bit more than he planned

Pelf parries Phillies

But Howard’s eighth-inning thrust

Proves the fatal blow

Some sloppy defense

Leads to familiar result

Against due south foe

Well. That was quite a week.

Let’s start with the new minority owner, David Einhorn. As I discussed in this piece for Capital New York, Einhorn is a good bet to either step in when the Wilpons settle/lose a judgment to Irving Picard, or to be investing long-term with the belief that whoever comes next will continue to inflate the value of the team. Keep in mind that despite all the well-documented missteps, the Mets were valued at $392 million in 2002, and $747 in April 2011. So as an investment, particularly with Picard’s efforts likely to result in new ownership, Einhorn’s bet makes sense here.

Preliminarily, Einhorn looks like a strong presence for Mets fans as well. The hallmarks of his work on Wall Street appear to be a similar approach to Sandy Alderson’s in baseball- information-based, long-term goals, steady plans. I’ll continue to research him and talk to people familiar with his work, and keep reporting as I learn more-since that’s what a responsible writer does when something vital breaks on his beat, rather than throwing one’s hands in the air and taking a wait-and-see attitude. This New York piece from a few years ago is a fantastic read on Einhorn, incidentally.

In on-field news, R.A. Dickey was sent to the Hospital for Special Surgery to have his sore right heel examined. This doesn’t mean the worst-case is upon us, but I’d feel a lot better about the severity of the injury if he’d been sent to Ralph’s Band-Aid Emporium, or better still, The House of Guaranteed To Make His Next Start. I’ll keep you posted as that news breaks.

Chances are the replacement for Dickey in the rotation will be Chris Schwinden. To learn more, check out Toby Hyde’s breakdown here. In short- he throws about as hard as Dillon Gee, but seems to have better late movement on his fastball, and comparable command.

In better news, looks like Angel Pagan will be back today, with Fernando Martinez heading back to Triple-A to get regular at-bats. The logic inherent in Sandy Alderson moves never gets old, after a couple of decades without it.

And if you’d like some optimism heading into this weekend against Philly: Roy Oswalt, who pitches Friday, hasn’t been the same in terms of strikeouts or velocity since returning from the disabled list. Saturday’s pitcher is Cole Hamels, who got knocked around his last start and pitches poorly against the Mets historically. And Vance Worley, who goes Sunday, continues to have control issues and got roughed up in his last start. The Mets miss Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay.

In weather that would induce angst from a stoic

Carlos Zambrano’s arm, bat were heroic

And week that has veered between sad and surreal

Sees Dickey’s Achilles Heel may be his… heel

Mets fans, like any other group, can’t really be classified. Yankee fans are often labeled as “entitled”, but we all know Yankee fans that inherited the team from a parent, an older brother, who lived through Horace Clarke or Hensley Muelens.

And Mets fans aren’t all like Dana Brand, a wonderful man who died yesterday afternoon, much too soon, at age 56. Mets fans aren’t always looking for happiness in the face of often unrelenting bad news. Mets fans aren’t always so thankful for the great plays and able to provide humorous perspective on the no-so-great plays. Mets fans don’t always have a proper sense of historical perspective, or the ability to make literature of baseball seasons.

In other words, Dana Brand wasn’t typical of Mets fans. That’s only fair; those who had the privilege of knowing him better than I did can verify that he wasn’t typical of men, either.

He’s just how I pictured the ideal Mets fan. A learned man with proper appreciation of baseball and family. Someone who provided a roadmap of a life to aspire to- writing and studying words for a living, outwardly appreciating his family in every available moment. A product of a Brooklyn Dodgers upbringing who embraced Mets history so completely that he’d created a symposium on the subject, which is scheduled for 2012.

I’m sitting here with my worn copy of Mets Fan, Dana’s remarkable book on the study of our particular plight. As I’ve told his daughter, Sonia, I bought it the night I met Dana, in November of 2007. And I kept it in my car, actually- it helped me get through an offseason. Dana understood this difficulty. He wrote of the offseason: “It’s as if someone you know has disappeared.”

And maybe that’s why I can’t quite process the idea that he’s gone. Dana’s like baseball, right? Voices like that have to return after a little while. They don’t disappear permanently. They show up when the weather starts to warm again.

It was comforting, even this week, to read his thoughts about the Mets. In an April 28 post to his blog, he wrote about believing in his team, even after the 5-13 start.

“Wouldn’t it be great if the people who dumped on them in the press when they were 5-13 were to not merely say that the Mets have surprised them.   Wouldn’t it be great if they admitted that they were foolish to bury the Mets on the basis of one-tenth of the season, that they were craven and cynical, making a story that wasn’t a story because they had to try to sell newspapers?”

Now we know that Fred Wilpon was one of these people, disparaging all the wrong Mets on the very night the team dropped to 5-13. We’re supposed to be okay with this because it somehow proves he loves the Mets.

But Dana loved the Mets the right way. He loved them intelligently, optimistically and unreservedly. If current ownership loved the Mets like Dana Brand did, the Mets would be in a far better position than they are.

So I intend to honor Dana’s life this weekend the way he lived it. I’ll be attending a Mets game with my family, and enjoy it whether they win or lose. I’ll be re-reading his work, and reading it to my daughter. I’ll call my father to talk about the team. I’ll write about the Mets. I’ll think about the Mets.

In short, I’ll find the happiness in how Dana lived, rather than simply dwelling on the idea that I won’t get to hear his perspective on the continuing difficulties concerning the franchise we both love, or that I won’t get to hear him next month at the Tappan Public Library, where he was scheduled to read.

I like to think that by doing so, I am following the example he set. I only wish I could provide comfort to those who knew him better, and will feel this loss even more acutely.

Check back here for updates and live reaction:

11:33: Well, we begin by hearing Einhorn won’t answer any questions about the terms of this transactions. So with that, little that is useful will come of this.

11:36: Okay, both reporters and Einhorn ignoring that warning. Einhorn said he’s hoping deal will be completed by end of June, and is a personal investment.

11:39: Einhorn keeps stressing that this is a personal experience he’s buying into-no specifics about the way the team is run. Generally, that they will improve financially over time. And there’s truth to that, obviously- if he can hold on through a majority change, good chance new owner will want to invest heavily in his team.

11:41: More to that point- talked about how most of his investment opportunities “are on the long side.”

11:47: He’s not allowed to go into the structure of it. So those details will not come from this call. He talked about having no interest in SNY. But as previously reported, keep in mind that the New York Post reported that the terms of the debt against SNY meant Sterling cannot make a profit from selling their stake in SNY, and that Comcast has first right to buy any of it. So that was never on the table.

11:49: Einhorn had a one day at a time response to a question about his interest in buying a majority share. The right to do so is likely at the crux of negotiations to come, you’d think.

11:52: Hopefully, Einhorn’s positive words about Sandy Alderson mean he really will be supportive of him if he takes control down the line. But Einhorn continues to stress that this is a personal investment, whatever that means.

11:57: Again, Einhorn talks about holding this investment for a very long time. Given Picard, that sure sounds like betting on the next owner, even if it isn’t Einhorn himself. Not a crazy thought, given the financial advantages of New York’s lone National League team.

12:01: Question to ask: will he own Mets independent of the Wilpon control?

12:02: So Einhorn’s best friend was Bud Selig’s next door neighbor. Small world, isn’t it? That’s the end of the call.

With team facing a calamity

And GM in need of clarity

Mets found, in Cubs, baseball rarity

Pitchers who believe in charity

Briefly, here’s the reason I think Fred Wilpon’s comments in The New Yorker and Sports Illustrated are so significant to the fan base.

I think he took away hope.

See, it doesn’t matter what is happening in a baseball season- fans can still find ample reason for optimism. Maybe they’ll come back tonight. Or if not, maybe the winning streak starts tomorrow. Or fine, this year is shot- but what about a big offseason acquisition? Next year is the year.

So what did Wilpon do? In the span of two interviews, he made it clear that this team, in his opinion, isn’t coming back when trailing. They aren’t good enough to win this season. And he’s cutting payroll, so the winter won’t fix anything. With a relatively moribund farm system, that means a difficult 2012, too.

That’s a lot of hope to extinguish before Memorial Day.

As to the reasons why, I think people are looking too deeply into the Machiavellian reasons Fred Wilpon did this. Did he have reason to believe Omar Minaya could turn this team around for years before firing him? Of course not. Same with Steve Phillips. And so on.

The man makes a lot of decisions that aren’t in his best interest. If you think otherwise, Bernie Madoff has a black box strategy to sell you.

And the ramifications are going to be profound. The Mets weren’t drawing well before this. But fans are going to stay away in much greater numbers. And those that show up are going to protest. That is the new reality coming to SNY every night.

This is unprecedented. This isn’t George Steinbrenner expressing rage at his players and vowing to get better ones. This is Fred Wilpon disparaging his best players and vowing to replace them… with nothing.

Only a quick intervention from MLB, or a speedy trial with Irving Picard, can keep this worst-case scenario from becoming reality.

In wake of Wilpon

Mets decide to heed his words

Bad night. Worse owner.