The LoHud Mets Blog

Phils do just enough

Score a pair for Halladay

Who scatters singles

This one deserves a haiku:

Pelfrey still ailing

Ike’s and Pridie’s homers moot

Thanks to Howard’s bat

If I needed to tell you that the Mets and Phillies are set to play three important games this weekend, you wouldn’t be here at the LoHud Mets Blog. But let’s take a step back and look at what is really at stake here, tangibly.

1. If the Phillies sweep the Mets, New York will be 8.5 games back of the likely division leader as May begins. That isn’t insurmountable- there’s a lot of season left- but it will make winning the division mathematically unlikely. A small percentage of teams make up 8.5 games or more, even just a month into the season.

2. The Mets are catching the Phillies at a near-optimal time.  Much of the offense is struggling. Injuries dot the roster, leaving Vance Worley to start Friday night, Carlos Ruiz sidelined, and Chase Utley still weeks from a return. And both Jose Contreras and Brad Lidge are out for the bullpen, leaving Kent Tekulve, I believe, as the closer.

It isn’t that Philly is awful by any means- they are 16-8, and the Mets face Roy Halladay Saturday and Cliff Lee Sunday. But this may be as vulnerable as they will be all season.

3. Attendance at Citi Field has been awful. And I generally don’t think performance in short bursts will make much of a difference- for example, a series win in Milwaukee probably doesn’t change the Citi Field number that follows.

But this weekend, a sweep over the Phillies would get some attention. On the heels of a six-game winning streak, beating Halladay and Lee back-to-back, both on national TV, climbing to within 2.5 games of Philly, and heading into better weather next week, that sounds like a recipe for jumpstarting the team attendance.

And if you don’t care about off-field issues, you are ignoring the difference that ticket sales make on the field. The difference between two million and three million tickets sold is more than what it will cost to sign Jose Reyes annually. And a smaller difference than that can give the team the chance to sign more players over slot in the draft, leading to a deeper farm system.

Simply put: it matters. And this may be one of the few times this year that the Mets can change perceptions quickly, instead of through sustained success. Don’t get me wrong, that success needs to follow to make the gains permanent. But this weekend, they can get the casual fan’s attention.

4. Beating Philly is a pleasure for its own sake, isn’t it?

Livan slows Mets with his pitches like snails

Ninth-inning rally, surprisingly, fails

The expatriates from the land of poutine

End win streak in game that was merely routine

I love Rob Neyer’s work. Generally, I could just retweet his pieces and save myself a lot of time and energy. But I found his Mets piece from today a bit curious, since I only agreed with around half of it, plus his conclusion (I see the Mets at around a .500 team this year, too. My fearless prediction: 84-78.)

Specifically, Rob described the starting pitching this way: “The pitching’s a mess, though, and will probably continue to be a mess.”

He goes on to describe the extent to which the Mets don’t have an ace, which is absolutely true. But lost in that frequent refrain is this: if healthy, none of the five Met starters has a particularly low floor, either. And that makes for a likely staff outcome far better than their current 4.81 ERA, good for 13th in the National League.

Of the five starters: RA Dickey, Jonathon Niese, Mike Pelfrey, Chris Capuano and Chris Young, only Young is significantly beating his ZIPS projection, and he’s already missed 40 percent of his starts. Let’s put it in handy chart form:

PITCHER             2011 ERA            PROJECTED ERA

Dickey                 3.82                       3.86

Pelfrey                 7.23                       4.12

Niese                   5.10                       4.27

Capuano              5.95                       4.15

Young                  2.65                       4.53

In other words, if healthy, the Mets should expect a starter ERA around 4.19 from these five. They check in at 4.81. They’ve also received an average of just under 5.7 innings per start, well under what Dickey (6.7), Capuano (6.5 in last healthy season), Pelfrey (6.1),  Niese (5.8), and Young (5.8 in last healthy season) should average. Needless to say, the more innings they provide, the lower the bullpen ERA is likely to be as well.

And all of this doesn’t include a single start by a certain Johan Santana, whose rehab has progressed to throwing off of a mound this week.

Now, you’ll notice I keep using the caveat “if healthy”. That applies to all pitching staffs, but particularly to the back end of this one, with both Capuano and Young attempting to pitch full seasons for the first time in several years. However, looking forward, it appears that Dillon Gee will be the sixth starter the Mets, like virtually every team, will employ this season. While he has also outpitched his ZIPS projection in his two outings so far (2.31 ERA vs. 4.88 projected ERA), notice that his projected ERA is A) only marginally worse than the rest of the group and B) still below 5. In other words, it is reasonable to think that the Mets can sustain an absence from either Capuano or Young without the bottom dropping out of the rotation. If both drop out, option seven is Pat Misch, whose projected ERA (4.75) is actually better than Gee’s, and better than the starters’ current ERA.

Johan Santana’s ZIPS ERA, by the way, is 3.39. So a healthy Santana would substantially improve the overall outlook of that group of five.

Putting it simply: it would be a mistake to assume that every best-case scenario for the Mets’ pitching staff will come to pass. But by median projection, the rotation should be significantly better than it has. And for the staff to perform as poorly as they have so far, nearly everything would have to continue going wrong. There’s no reason to assume that, either.

Umpire blindness costs Reyes a triple

But for the Mets’ chances caused barely a ripple

Murphy’s pinch-homer is moment of bliss

But on play at second, his presence is missed

Mets then battle back, a sac fly from Hu

And two batters later, Murph again comes through

Is it the talent? Some luck? Or a mix?

Here’s what I know: the win streak’s at six.

Kudos to the Mets for winning yet again. Even with their slow start, if the Mets continue not to lose a game for the rest of the season, their 149-13 season mark should make them a playoff team for sure. For comparison, the vaunted 1986 team finished 108-54, or 41 games off of that pace.

Naturally, the Mets are likely to lose again. But what I pondered last night was this: just who are the most popular Mets? Sure, Jose Reyes and David Wright are the most common jerseys in the Citi Field crowd, but what has always marked Mets fans is the love of flawed players.

For every Seaver, Mets fans loved Wayne Garrett, Ed Kranepool and Ron Swoboda. Lenny Dykstra and Wally Backman became the symbols of the 1986 Mets, even with Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry on the roster. Mike Piazza is a Hall of Famer, but Joe McEwing and Benny Agbayani jerseys are work at Citi Field to this day.

And I have to think such relationships are forged in these good times, and survive the next losing streak, which will undoubtedly happen. Hopefully, this recent five game streak has reassured fans that the 2011 roster may not be the equal of 1986’s, but is far better than 1993’s or 1962’s.

So who will be the beneficiary of that success? If the Mets all ran in an election for the title “Most Popular Met”, here’s how I think the balloting would go right now:

1. David Wright

2. Jose Reyes

3. RA Dickey

4. Johan Santana

5. Ike Davis

6. Carlos Beltran

7. Mike Pelfrey

8. Angel Pagan

9. Josh Thole

10. Daniel Murphy

There’s a steep dropoff after the top two of Wright and Reyes, with Dickey holding the traditional role of cult Mets figure (the Tug McGraw/Roger McDowell, in essence), and Davis’ strong start making him a likely ascendant figure in the casual fan recognition category (think Dave Kingman, though that grossly underrates his potential).

But it is easy to see things go in a very different direction. Dickey, unlike McGraw and McDowell, didn’t come to the Mets young, and his tenure could be more limited (though his knuckleballing ways could help ameliorate age-related decline). Josh Thole, whose hit was the difference last night, is precisely the kind of player Mets fans have historically embraced: home-grown, useful without starring, consistent. Daniel Murphy fits this definition as well.

And with Beltran, whose salary likely kept a certain contingent of Mets fans from appreciating him as they should have, on his way out, whoever his replacement is will be well-positioned to earn fan love. Perhaps it will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, off to a strong start at Triple-A.

in the meantime, much of 2011 will be spent by the fan base trying to figure out exactly where its sympathies reside. So much energy had been diverted into hating Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez-my favorite player, incidentally. I am in the market for a new one.*

But the scapegoats are gone. There will likely be new ones, the holders of the Doug Sisk Chair in Anger Inducement. But my guess is the next great emotion for Mets fans to feel will be love. And it will be fascinating to see who they, and I, latch onto for popular support. My daughter’s next jersey hangs in the balance.

*One of my favorite recurring conversations on my last book tour went like this:

Child Mets Fan: My favorite player is David Wright. Who’s yours?

Me: Oliver Perez.

Child: (Incredulous look)

Child’s Father: He’s kidding, son. No one likes Oliver Perez.

Me: Actually, I’m not.

Child: (Starts crying)

Child’s Father: Um, can we return your book?

Tallest Met, in return, goes rather short

But bullpen has upgraded from last resort

Difference was Thole, previously bereft

Of hit off of someone who throws with his left

Suddenly an idea no longer seems silly

Meaningful games played this weekend in Philly?

The now-invincible Mets, after three weeks of extreme vincibility, resume this evening with Chris Young on the mound. But I’d like to direct your attention instead to this piece of news: Brian Bannister has no plan to pitch this season, after fleeing Japan following the earthquake/tsunami.

Bannister, you will remember, was once a Met. He surprised everyone, especially the presumed fifth starter Aaron Heilman, by winning Heilman’s job with a stellar spring training in 2006. But after a leg injury cost him most of the 2006 season, the Mets traded Bannister to the Royals that December for Ambiorix Burgos, a hard-throwing reliever.

Throughout 2007, Omar Minaya and the Mets took a lot of criticism for this deal, thanks to Bannister’s 3.87 ERA as a starter, Burgos’ arm injury, and the 2007 Mets seeming to need just one reliable starter to help them make the playoffs.

But that is the kind of deal you always want the Mets to make. Burgos didn’t make it, but he struck out a ton of hitters. He was entering his age-23 season when the Mets got him, and pitchers who strike out a batter an inning in around 140 major league innings at age 21-22 don’t grow on trees.

Unfortunately, Burgos will be remembered primarily for his ability to hit, not miss, and for making the Mets the only organization in MLB history with more than one Ambiorix (who can forget Ambiorix Concepcion?!?).

Bannister was already 26, didn’t miss many bats, and his subsequent downfall was pretty predictable if you looked beyond his superficial 2007 numbers. For the record: a 5.58 ERA over three seasons from 2008-2010.

As strange as it sounds, I wonder to this day how the Mets would have fared with Aaron Heilman, starter. He’d been promised the starting gig, and it was clear it was what he wanted to do. Heilman is a bright guy, and naturally overthought his relief role. The Mets made strange choices, deciding Brian Lawrence and a month-rested Phil Humber were better choices to start games than simply stretching out Heilman. The Mets weren’t exactly awash in pitching alternatives in 2008, either.

It is easy to say that Heilman was under contract to the Mets; if he wanted to relieve, too bad. But the Mets have a responsibility, as all teams do, to put their players in position to succeed. That responsibility isn’t some obligation to the players; it is in the team’s best interest, since more success comes of it.

It may not be a popular position, but I believe that handled differently, Aaron Heilman could still be in the Met rotation, pitching well. One thing’s for sure: he was a better bet to have an extended major league career than Bannister or Burgos. And, like it or not, he is.

With Chris Young scheduled to start Tuesday in Washington, the Mets activated Young from the Disabled List, but chose not to demote Dillon Gee.

Instead, Gee stays with New York, while D.J. Carrasco heads to Triple-A Buffalo.

This move makes sense for many reasons. Gee pitched well, while Carrasco hadn’t pitched in a week. This way, Gee continues to work as a long man, something the Mets tried to get from Carrasco, though he wasn’t stretched out. And Carrasco will lengthen with a pair of starts at Buffalo, at least.

Carrasco is signed to a two-year deal, so the Mets can get him properly aligned for the role he can best perform in over the longer term.

And Gee, much as some would like him to be, isn’t a star in the making. Even at Triple-A, his ERA gets inflated by too many slow fastballs and straight changeups, neutralizing his strong ability to miss bats and throw strikes. Not that he can’t help- he’s just more of a back-of-the-rotation type, or a long man.

Good to see the Mets evaluating and using a player properly. The Sandy Alderson Era may only be 9-13 so far, but he has plenty of wins in the roster construction category.

Mets keep on bashing, showing their might

Home run from Pridie, two more from Wright

Armando lost a perfecto by umpire’s choice

Mets made sure they needed no help from Jim Joyce

Bay’s bat arrives, roughly 16 months late

While Gee pitches just well enough, though not great

Davis hits one to the right field scoreboard

While Murphy’s hit guarantees lead is assured

After four starts where clean innings were rare

Big Pelf succeeded, with outs in the air

Ike clouted big fly just when one was due

(Though it only counted on further review)

Met win streak, in single day, has now doubled

Is Atlanta’s hold on fourth place now in trouble?

Wow, apparently the Mets see Willie Harris and Scott Hairston differently than I do! Angel Pagan hit the DL this afternoon, and Jason Pridie got the call from Triple-A.

Pridie, once a top prospect with the Twins, is more of a glove than a bat in center field. He starts tonight, and it will be interesting to see if he gets regular time there, or if Harris/Hairston share it as well. This isn’t a prospect situation anymore, in terms of Pridie. But maybe, a team with the defensive struggles of the Mets just wants a great glove out there right now.

There was a lot of demand for Scott Hairston to be replaced on the roster by Nick Evans early this season. And I do understand the sentiment- Hairston struggled early, Evans is a homegrown talent.

But Angel Pagan’s injury last night puts the need for Hairston and Willie Harris into sharp relief.

With Carlos Beltran now a right fielder- as he should be, to minimize the wear on his knees and maximize his offensive production, this appears to be the depth chart at center field.

1. Willie Harris

1a. Scott Hairston

3. Mookie Wilson

Seriously, who else is playing the position. Injured Triple-A slugger Fernando Martinez? Not on the 40-man Kirk Nieuwenhuis?

Hairston/Harris is a solid platoon option at any of the three outfield positions, a good job by Sandy Alderson to stretch his budget. They could even both play second base, if necessary.

If only Nick Evans had that versatility, he’d be on the roster. Meanwhile, Hairston/Harris will fill in for Pagan, and the Mets will continue to play a starting outfielder short.