Amazin’ Avenue posted projections for the Mets hitters and pitchers that are straight from the pages of the new Bill James Handbook.
At least two positives and two negatives stand out to me:
Positives â€” The projections for Nick Evans and Dan Murphy, who James projects to post OPSs of over .800. If they hit that well, the Met offense will be much more productive. Especially if Murphy’s at second base.
Negatives â€” Projections for Jose Reyes (.798 OPS, a decent amount lower than 2006 and 2008) and John Maine, at least in regard to his IP (just 145). Maine threw 151.2 in 2006 in the majors and minors and 191 in 2007 before falling off to 140 this year because of the bone spur. … To James’ credit, he predicted Maine to finish 2008 at 12-11 with a 4.05 ERA, numbers Met fans considered blasphemy after Maine’s breakthough year in ‘07. Turned out James was right, although you could argue Maine performed much better than the projection until his shoulder started barking.