“The K-Rod Konundrum”
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- October
- 10
Watching the playoffs has to make you wonder how the Mets would’ve fared in October. Yes, bullpens are at a premium in the postseason (duh), but just consider who contenders trot out with the game in the balance — guys named Papelbon, Lidge and Broxton, not to mention the likes of Justin Masterson and Hideki Okajima; J.C. Romero and Ryan Madson; Grant Balfour and Chad Bradford; and Corey Wade and Hong-Chih Kuo.
Whether it’s readers griping about hitting with runners in scoring position, or a sportswriter laying out his or her offseason plan, it doesn’t matter. The Mets, no matter what has happened, are still just as good as anyone in baseball in their lineup, in their rotation and on defense. It’s the shoddy bullpen that cost them this season.
No team had a better run differential through six innings. So before bullpens became a factor in the average game, the Mets were the best club in baseball.
You can talk about trading Carlos Beltran, cutting ties with Carlos Delgado, and debate whether or not Ryan Church likes New York, but to do so you miss the point entirely.
The Mets can’t afford to just toss a band-aid on their bullpen problems — and this is where the K-Rod Konundrum comes in: Should the Mets sign Francisco Rodriguez or should they leave him and his many red flags be?
If only it were so simple. If only someone like Jonathan Papelbon were on the open market. But he isn’t. And guess what? K-Rod is no Papelbon, no Rivera. Heck, he’s not even Lidge.
Statistically, K-Rod had his worst season as a pro. He broke the saves record by saving 62 games, but practically every other measurable deteriorated in the process. Consider:
— K-Rod threw just one more inning than his previous career low (68.1 to 67.1) yet allowed the most hits in his six full seasons (54).
— His 34 walks were the second-most of his career. His most (35) came during a season when he threw 18 more innings.
— His strikeouts dipped to a career low (77). One year he actually struck out 123 while allowing less hits and walks than he did in 2008.
— His strikeout per walk ratio was the worst of his career (2.27).
— The opposition had a paltry .216 batting average against and .314 on-base percentage against. Still, those were career-worst marks. His .629 OPS against was also a career worst.
If it sounds like I’m against the Mets signing K-Rod, then you’ve jumped to a conclusion. I’m not. Why? Because there is plenty to like about him too.
Here are the top 5 positives in ascending order:
5. He is 26.
4. He’s proven, having 208 saves in 241 chances.
3. He’s reliable, having pitched in 59 or more games six straight years.
2. He is very confident in a time when the ‘pen could use a little mojo. K-Rod has already pitched in five Octobers, and won’t be spooked by the spotlight. (He cherishes it.)
1. He’s the best option on the market. Period.
Reason No. 1 is exactly why K-Rod may prove the perfect fit, despite what appear to be diminishing returns. He is the best man for the job, and the Mets desperately need that man right now to right the wrongs of 2007 and 2008. But dropping between $60-80 million in the lap of a pitcher whose velocity has dipped from the high to low 90s and who has a violent motion is risky.
Of course, it’s not my money and it’s not your money, but it is the Wilpons money. They, along with Omar Minaya, have to decide whether the second list outweighs the first.
This entry was posted
on Friday, October 10th, 2008 at 4:57 pm by Josh Thomson.
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I say, pass. Go after Fuentes who might net the same number of saves with far less risk, and, I might add, at a more reasonable cost. The decline in K-Rod’s stats are alarming considering what he will attempt to receive in dollars and years. We need a closer, that’s for sure, but not one such as K-Rod who could be long-term liability vs. good for a year or two.
thank you for stating the facts..beltran is the core..
and we have to get a closer threw the met farm..simple
parnell has my vote..
Just a thing to note, in the 2005-2006 offseason it was said to be the free agent class deep with closers, this included:
B.J. Ryan, Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman, Armando Benitez, Danys Baez, Joe Borowski, and Todd Jones.
Yeah i know the last couple of guys weren’t that good to begin with but at the very least Wagner, Hoffman, and Ryan could be considered elite, with Benitez coming off one of the best seasons for any closer.
Look at where all those names are now, either ineffective or hurt or got hurt bad. The risk on the relievers is a scary risk…
EXCUSE CAPSLOCK NEEDED FOR DISABILITY…
CLOSERS ARE VERY TOUGH TO EVALUATE STATISTICALLY. #SVS DEPENDS ON #SVO. ERA IS USELESS SINCE ANY ERA LT 18.00 CAN GARNER A SAVE IF LEADS INHERITED ARE 3R. PERSONALLY, LOOKING AT H/9 & BB/9 AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITY CONVERSION RATE (SV/SVO) INDICATES EFFECTIVENESS, TO ME. OF THE 4 OPTIONS REPORTEDLY AVAILABLE, PUTZ, STREET, K-ROD, FUENTES THEIR CONVERSION RATES TELL A REVEALING TALE.
PUTZ CONVERTED 65.22%
STREET ” 72.00%
K-ROD ” 89.86%
FUENTES ” 88.89%
FOR COMPARISON SAKE THE COMBO OF WAGNER/AYALA CONVERTED 80.00% TO GARNER 36 SVS OUT OF 45 OPPORTUNITIES. TO WEIGH THAT FOR ‘09 IF ONE OF THE ABOVE HAD THOSE 45 OPPORTUNITIES
PUTZ WOULD SUPPLY 29 SAVES, STREET, 32, K-ROD 40, FUENTES 40. BASED ON THE NUMBERS FOR ‘08 FUENTES WAS AS EFFECTIVE AS K-ROD. GUENTES IS 6 YRS OLDER @ 33. FROM A COST EFFECTIVNESS POINT WITH CUZA REPING FUENTES AND BORAS REPING K-ROD. YOUR CHOICE OF POISON IS COBRA? OR MAMBA? REGARDLESS OF WHOSE COIN, FUENTES WOULFD CERTAINLY BE THE BETTER CHOICE WITH THE $$ DIFFERENCE INVESTED IN SETUP UPGRADE.
Everyone has made some good points, although I can’t say I agree that using Parnell as the closer is a good idea. The guy has been a career starter in the minors, and only became a reliever at the very end of the season. He only pitched a few innings for the Mets, and while he was impressive I think handing the closer role to an unproven rookie is something that should only be done by small market teams, and even then it would preferably be a top prospect with minor league closer experience.
Our best bet, I feel, is to try and grab Brian Fuentes instead of K-Rod. There are just too many red flags about K-Rod, and while he would be awesome and add a ton on pizazz to our bullpen, I just feel like Fuentes has the right mentality to pitch in New York and the fact that I feel the two pitchers would be so similar in effectiveness, with Fuentes coming at half the cost. (Random fun fact: the Rockies originally aquired Fuentes from the Mariners in 2001 in the trade that sent Jeff Cirillo to Seattle).
The fact is, Fuentes has been thriving in Colorado since before they installed the humidors or whatever they do with the balls now to de-juicify them. Although he had an off-year in 2004, he was on the DL twice that year, which surely affected his performance. He has been otherwise durable and has always had a good strike out rate, with more Ks than innings pitched (470Ks in 410 innings) with the Rockies). Fuentes’ career walk rate is slightly better than K-Rod’s. Plus, the fact that he has pitched in Coors for so long and excelled as a closer means he can handle pressure situations. Not only that, if you’ve seen the guy pitch it’s obvious that he has nasty stuff.
K-Rod has also proven his ability to thrive in pressure situations and in the playoffs, where experience counts for a lot and Fuentes has had far less than K-Rod. In fact, it appears that Fuentes did not pitch in the 2007 post season, as I can’t find any stats for him. But we all saw K-Rod cough up a JD Drew homerun that won the game for the Red Sox in game 2.
Another reason Fuentes would be a better option is the fact that as a southpaw, he matches up better against such division powerhouse lefties as Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.
All things considered, I feel Fuentes would be the best option mainly because he and K-Rod would provide nearly identical production, on paper, plus he would come much cheaper. There are no alarmists shouting about his dropping velocity and violent motion like there are for K-Rod, and at 33 years old, Fuentes is right in prime closer territory, where he has some know how and experience, but still has youthful stuff. A three years deal for him would take him to his age 36 season, still reasonably aged, especially for a lefty. If we signed K-Rod, we’re hearing it’d have to be for 5 years. That’s alot riskier than 3 for a closer.
The money issue is most important when we remember that there are many holes to fill on this team and will be in subsequent years as well. With Wagner already draining us of 10 million dollars next season, saving some money at the closer role would be welcome.
One drawback is that Fuentes would almost assuredly wait until K-Rod signed to sign his deal, as is the way they usually work these things. So if we went after Fuentes, we would be going against every team that missed on K-Rod and looked at Brian as their Plan B. Maybe the Mets should swoop in early while everyone is obsessing over K-Rod and make Fuentes an offer he can’t refuse.
Of course, if we do end up with K-Rod, let me remind you that I won’t be complaining one bit. That would be a great pick-up. I just feel that when comparing the two, Fuentes is less risk and less money for the same production. Plus he matches up well against our top rival’s best hitters.
Very good article. I didnt know about krods numbers going down. Since the yankees dont currently need a closer, Nobodys going to outbid the Mets for fuentes if they go after him. Wipons not going to raise the payroll, so forget about Krod anyway.
So using a youngster is for small market teams. Once again you show your total ignorance of MLb. I guess Jonathon Papelbon was a seasoned veteran of 23 playing for the small market Boston Red Sox when handed the closer’s position. How about doing some homework so you don’t always look like the moinor leaguer or amateur or intern you are. This blog, this rag both will go the way of Lehman bros, and deservedly so.
PATHETIC JOURNALISM!!!!!
I thought DELCOS was pathetic. You interns make him look like a pro…...
I bet you think you’ll win a journalism award for telling the world its the Wilpon’s money, and how about that, you put it in bold because you thought your readers didn’t have the intellect to read all the way to the bottom without a little gimmick.
BRING BACK A REAL BEAT WRITER