Today in The Journal News
-
- August
- 29
We all know about Mike Pelfrey and his ever-increasing innings count. The 24-year-old has already entered the deep end. Every inning he throws extends his career high IP. Theoretically, it also brings him closer to suffering potential arm troubles, at least if you believe in research done the last few years by the stat guys.
This week I asked Pelfrey what he knows about that research this week and he had a couple reasons for why he’s may not be in the same danger as you think. Here’s the story.
I also contacted Baseball Prospectus for the story, and BP’s Will Carroll helped outline what history has told us about young pitchers’ risk. Carroll said pitchers 25-and-under are at risk if they throw 30 or more innings than they did the year before. Here are the variables: 1. Age, 2. minor-league IP aren’t as stressful as those in the majors.
I asked about size (Pelfrey being a big boy at 6-foot-7) and he said it wasn’t currently a consideration. I also asked if Pelfrey would be safer if the Mets dialed back his IP late in the season but he still exceeded his IP limit in October…Carroll said he’d still be at risk.
What didn’t make the story but is certainly interesting was Pelfrey’s thoughts on this year compared to his final year at Wichita State. As a junior he made 19 starts and threw 139.2 IP — doing so in basically three monhs of work. He started on three-days rest. He threw pitch-counts that were barely considered.
“In college I threw about 145 innings in three months,” Pelfrey said. “The workload there was a lot more. There were times I came back on three days rest.”
If you remember, Pelfrey didn’t pitch in pro ball that year after he was drafted. The Mets were rumored to be pleased, out of fear he’d hurt his arm on the heels of a busy college season.
Clearly, the guy’s been busy before.
There are examples of injuries who derailed guys’ careers (Prior and Wood, Fausto Carmona this year), but there are others who were fine. One is comparable to Pelfrey — Justin Verlander, the Tigers’ 6-foot-7 RHP. The 23-year-old (at the time) Verlander tossed 186 IP in 2006, a 56-inning increase from the year before. How’d he make out in ‘07? 18-6, 3.66 ERA, good for fifth in the AL Cy Young voting.
This entry was posted
on Friday, August 29th, 2008 at 10:56 am by Josh Thomson.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
Print This Post
| 
I always think the total number of pitches thrown per year, not the number of innings, should be used. In the case of Pelfrey, last year it would take him 100 pitches to finish 5 innings, this year it’s 7 or more. So the number of pitches are the same but the innings increases.
Well done article, Josh. There are always 2 sides to every argument and you found the other side. When you are in a tight pennant race, you are going to have to go with your best. Pelfry is almost at co-ace status at this point. Hopefully we can put some distance between us and the phils, so the guys can rest up a bit at the end. I wouldnt count on that happening, though.
Maine increased his ML inn by 100 from 06 to 07.
OP increased his by 70 from 03 to 04.
Santana increased his by 50 from 02 to 03 and by another 70 from 03 to 04.
Pelfrey has thrown a little over twice as many pitches as last yr.
Maine is hurt, but OP and Santana are not.
Who knows what makes one guy get hurt and another not.
Sadecki: This is getting really bad. Stop writing stuff I agree with!!!!!!!!!!
Well, Chiti, When you start calling for Omars head, Saying the Millege trade was a disgrace and Willie was a good manager, we can fight again. :D