Today he was the good Ollie
-
- March
- 17
Oliver Perez was on his game this afternoon, showing us how good he could be. Perez gave up one run on two hits in five innings in easily his best start of the spring.
That’s two good starts in a row for Perez.
I think the problem with Perez and the expectations is that his stuff is so good, and he shows us these glimpses, that when he doesn’t pitch lights out we’re either disappointed or frustrated.
I’d like to say, pencil him in for 17, but the flip side of that are the 10 to 12 games he might lose and how he’ll lose them.
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on Monday, March 17th, 2008 at 3:13 pm by John Delcos.
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There is alot of $$ on the line for OP. I’d bet he will do 15 wins, 3.5 ERA like last yr. Hopefully more inn/start. But it will cost Mets $$$ to keep him. He could be 2nd best SP available (after CC).
If we get the good Perez for 15 – 17 wins with the occasional stinker, I’ll be happy.
What are the Jacket’s three sides of the triangle—pitching skills, conditioning, mental toughness? Ollie has the first two, but he’s inconsistent with the third. Look what Pedro did yesterday—got in a little trouble, turned it up a notch and got out. Ollie needs to learn how to do this. I want to see him harness his emotions and be able to win 20. And get that no-hitter that he has just waiting to burst out. I mean, even if this means him leaving us in FA. I want him to achieve his potential. The Good Ollie is good, but he could be the GREAT Ollie.
The Hardball Times had an interesting article a year or so back where they discussed the “consistent” Steve Trachselesque starter vs. the “up and down” ollie perez starter. The article is VERY interesting, here’s the link:http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/same-old-same-old/
For those who don’t want to read the whole thing, here are some choice cuts:
They asked the question: “Is a guy who goes out there and pitches seven innings giving up three runs every time out really more valuable than a guy who pitches six innings and allows five runs half the time, while holding the opposition to one run over eight innings the other half?”
Their conlusions: “How is it that an inconsistent pitcher will generally win more games than a consistent pitcher? It’s actually pretty logical. Imagine the two pitchers were even more extreme. Imagine that Mr. Consistent allowed 5 runs every game he pitched. He would go 15-15. Now imagine that Mr. Inconsistent allowed no runs in half his starts and 10 in the other half. He’d win all his 0-run starts, but he’d also win the occasional 10-run start (about 18% of those starts, actually). Overall, he’d win around 18 games, three better than Mr. Consistent. As our example becomes less extreme, so does the difference. Nevertheless, it’s there.”
“In fact, this all goes back to the old axiom: A run saved is worth more than a run scored. Mr. Inconsistent will have more low-run starts, and more high-run starts. However, as long their RAs remain equal, Mr. Inconsistent’s low-run starts will add more value than his high-run values will lose him.”
the difference between Ollie and the very good to great pitches in this league are those situations, the men on base, after the bloop single, after an error, after a tough walk. The good pitchers buckle down, like a Pedro did yesterday, and they get outs. Ollie on the other hand is apt to have it blow up in his face. He gets frustrated. He needs to realize that giving up hits happens, errors happen, walks happen, but its what you do after them that counts. Ollie seems to strive for perfection and when things don’t go his way, he gets frustrated, loses concentration, and things blow up in his face. I’m not sure that will ever change, but he’s a still a pretty good #4 pitcher.
Metsfan – Ollie is a #4 pitcher who was in the NL top ten in strikeouts and era in 2007. Not too shabby.
Hey John … I’m Oliver Perez’s biggest fan. I’ve followed him closely ever since his days pitching for the Bucs. Did he look that much different today than in his previous three starts? Locating his fastball is key – did he do that effectively? How was his breaking stuff? Electric? Thanks John. Love your work.
Keith … Interesting article. I’m assuming you pointed it out to compare someone like Ollie to Maine.
The issue Ollie has is his lack of composure and concentration on the mound which is a big reason for his inconsistency. He allows a lot of unearned runs, the most last year in the majors. As such, he allowed 4.58 runs/9 IPs vs. 4.24 for Maine.
As I said a week or two ago, I think they are about equal in accomplishment coming off last season. But I think Maine will pull ahead of Ollie this year. It will be interesting to see which one, if either of them, distinguishes himself.
I hope Ollie does well this year and that we are able to resign him.
Perez as the number 4 starter gives the Mets a formidable starting staff, regardless of who is #5. You gotta believe that Pedro will be strong, Santana a given, Maine has looked awesome all spring. Both Wagner and Hielman have looked good too. Wise is a nice addition to the pen. Everyone says Sanchez is an important cog, I don’t agree. Mets did not lose last year because of Sanchez not being there. They can get along fine without him. I would like to see them keep Register on the roster. Add in Feliciano and the Mets have a balanced pen and tough starting pitching. Not impossible to win some low scoring games with this staff and if the bats are alive some blowouts as well.
JK, I actually think Maine has a chance to be better than merely “consistent.”
If Maine’s changeup can improve, he will have a chance to be a really devastating pitcher. He’ll be able to change a hitter’s eye level with his rising fastball, followed by the diving change he has exhibited some in ST. His slider has just enough bite that if he throws it in the right spots, that this will make for a solid repertoire. Add in his composure and I think Maine has a chance to make a similar leap to what Haren made a couple years back.
Keith, I agree with you about Maine. I wasn’t saying he could be classified as a typical “consistent†pitcher, just that I thought you were more or less putting him in that category by referencing that article in relation to Ollie.
Maine actually was pretty inconsistent himself last year – only much less so than Ollie.
What will be interesting to see is if Maine and Ollie (and the rest of the staff) improve with Schneider and Castro calling the majority of games. I suspect they will. It’s always hard to know how much a catcher’s game calling is impacting games because they rarely reveal that type of information, but I got the feeling they weren’t pleased with Lo Duca’s game calling. He always seemed to be angry at something or someone and brought that baggage with him onto the field, and perhaps this clouded his thinking and judgment from time to time Maybe at times down the stretch, he was heavily distracted by his contract status when he should have been thinking more about the games.
Maine handles trouble better than Perez??????
Lets SEE:
Maine Perez
none on .242 .225
men on .223 .235
RISP .233 .216
close/late .250 .214
bases loaded .273 .071
Perez over the course of the season far exceeded Maine in imnproving while in trouble….