One more time on Johnson vs. Santana
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- February
- 7
The point is about team expectations, not in pitcher comparisons, either by age or record.
When the Yankees got Randy Johnson, it was assumed they would go to the World Series. The expectations are the same by many of the Mets because of the addition of Johan Santana.
The point is the Yankees did not win with Johnson because they had other flaws. Likewise, we can’t assume the Mets will win just because they got Santana.
Both were considered the missing piece to put their team over the top. Their age and what league they are irrelevant to the point.
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on Thursday, February 7th, 2008 at 5:38 pm by John Delcos.
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and for those who think the age difference maters; in Johnson’s first year with the Bronxites he pitched well over 200 innings won 17 games and had an ERA under 4 in the “harder league”. So the comparison was good in all respects.
Well, yes while age is a concern regardless, when you factor in injuries. There was speculation he was hurt- sure, Santana has that too, but he is much younger – and switching leagues probably didn’t help Johnson either. I didn’t think he would be the Randy Johnson everyone expected, but I didn’t think it would end up like it did.
Well, if there are Mets fans convinced that Santana alone is the team’s ticket to the World Series punched… they’re… they’re nuts, of course.
I think unless the Massive Injury monster shows up, he’s the Mets ticket to the PLAYOFFS punched but…
The Mets took two steps back in their offense by committing to Castillo and throwing away Milledge and Estrada for the anemic bats of Schneider and Church… along with the fact that Alou will not stay healthy all season and Delgado will certainly regress even further.
Mets have three legitimate major league hitters who have any kind of a chance to stay healthy most of the season.
We can’t forget that the off-season was essentially an unmitigated disaster until the Santana move. Three steps forward, there.
The net gain is one step, y’know.
At the end of 07, the Mets were almost a playoff team.
After decimating the offense to get in “nice” guys into the line-up, the Mets weren’t much more than a .500 club… and with Santana, they’re a playoff team.
But when you consider that the left fielder and first baseman are in what should be the last year of their careers, the secondbaseman in the next to last year and… the catcher and rightfielder were platoonsmen for the Washington Expos?
That eats into a lot of Santana’s bounce.
People might say that is the case but we know that it isn’t. They need Pedro, Maine, and Perez to pitch effectively and El Duque needs to stay healthy (sike). They need Reyes and Delgado to bounce back, Alou to not get injured (sike), and Church to perform. The bullpen needs Sanchez to be healthy and they can’t overwork Feliciano or Heilman because those two fell apart. A bullpen of Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman, Feliciano, Sosa, Schoenweis, and another guy would be good. That spot would go to someone like Smith, Wise, or Register.
I don’t feel like getting into it, but there’s this thing called defense, it wins championships, so let’s not keep rating players by their fantasy rank…a lot more to the game than batting average, especially behind the plate
If one doesn’t feel like getting “into it” then why did you post. There are no fantasy stats posted anywhere on this post but you bring it up. Are you defending Schneider?? A guy who has shown a worsening ability to throw out runners for the last 3 years? Are you speaking about Church, the guy, who another poster has pointed out hasn’t touched Right Field for most of his career but is being touted as the next Roberto Clemente in right? Are you talking the Defense of Alou who can hardly reach a ball hit to him much less one where he needs to run for it? Are you talking Delgado a golden glover NOT?? I think your statement that you don’ty want to get into is bull, but I don’t want to get into it.
Every team in the NL east and for that matter in the NL has issues. While it is easy to focus on Mets problems, let’s look at some others.
Braves-Glavine and Smoltz are old; do they have anything left; Hampton-does he have anything left; their BP is not very good; they lost Reinteria and AJ
Phils-back of their rotation looks awful; they lost Rowand; will Lidge be able handle Philly
Fla-they should flat out stink
Wash-same as above
I think if Pedro and Elduqe can win 20 games b/w them, then Mets have a very likely chance of winning 90 games b/c the SP win 65+. When your SP win 65+, your team wins 90+. 90 games in the NL east should win it.
Yes, Schneider and Castillo used to be very plus defensively… but Castillo’s knee went and now he’s marginally above-average… and Schneider has regressed but his bat was so awful to begin with that ten Gold Gloves wouldn’t make up for it.
And, yes, Church is above-average defensively… but with a full season of major league experience, Milledge’ll be at least that good and after two or three seasons, he’ll surely be better.
Alou is a brick defensively but his bat makes up for it if he’s healthy. Delgado is a brick defensively and continues to regress.
Defense certainly does win championships… in football.
In baseball, what matters is defensive competency to go along with your bat.
Plus-offense has a lot more marginal utility than plus-defense, even though… yes… not being disasterous defensively is very important.
The value of extraordinary defense levels off in value at a certain point, the value of extraordinary offense never levels off.
Put it this way. How many times will one fielder be in a situation where having extraordinary defense pay off in a game-changing fashion? Most defensive plays are either in an average player’s range or outside of even an outstanding player’s range.
How many times will that same player be in a game-changing situation as a hitter? Almost always at least four times.
and when you make playoffs, you have chance to win WS.
I want to root for a team that has a chance come each spring to be in the playoffs.
No one player can guarantee a WS. But they can make the difference b/w playoffs and a chance to win WS, and staying home.
The Mets main weaknesses this year are… being extremely old/injury-prone across the roster and a scary lack of line-up depth against left-handed pitching.
The Mets main weaknesses last year were… starting pitching depth and the worst back-end of the bullpen money could possibly buy.
We’ll see how these factors play out.
The 2005 Yankees have nothing to do with the 2008 Mets.
Like… just nothing.
The had bad defense, with the exception of Mariano Rivera an incredibly unreliable bullpen, and c’mon now, do you want me to name thier starting rotation?
Aaron Small, Shawn Chacon, Al Leiter, Carl Pavano, and Jaret Wright were guys BESIDES Randy Johnson, that the Yankees were counting on.
Any team that relies on those guys named above are doomed.
Oliver Perez, El Duque, and John Maine are light years ahead of those five clowns named above, its not even close.
They also allowed Tony Womack to have 351 plate apearences.
Enough said.
The only people who REALLY and honestly thought the Yankees were going to win a World Series were the media and fans that were blind as bats. They were good becuase that had an amazing offense but every other aspect of the team was bad.
Team expectations? Guess who’s in charge of that? The media is. The countless stories will brain wash people into believing anything.
On the subject of expectations, look at Carlos Beltran, his expectations were so incredibly unfair that some people believe he’s a bad player. Carlos Beltran continues to do what he’s done his entire career, get on base, hit with 30 homerun power, while batting .270. YET the expecations placed on him when he became a Met were unreal. Not his fault some fans are idiots and want him to be a player he’s NEVER been.
all the ifs and this are great but in the end its the choice the player makes on how hard he’s going to play and whether he plays injured and if that injury affects his game.
My dad had a saying that is very base and if you think long and hard the meaing is quite clear.
If the dog didn’t stop to sh.t he would have caught the rabbit.
My dad, with all his flaws had a lot of insight. ;-]
There are no guarantees (other than Tampa Bay being horrible). In spring 1987 the Mets look unbeatable for the next 5 years after winning the NL East and trading for Kevin McReynolds. Then Gooden got suspended and 500 other things went wrong.
benny quote: “The only people who REALLY and honestly thought the Yankees were going to win a World Series were the media and fans that were blind as bats.”
Sounds just like the media and the Met fans this last week.
And its not the media, its the Met fans that have suddenly forgotten Alou, Schoeneweiss, wagner in the clutch, Delgado etc etc from the seconfd this trade was made.
Don’t get me wrong This was great trade. It made us CONTENDERS again. It didn’t make us champs. If you don’t beleive me about the media not raising the expectations look at the posts since the second this trade was made. That’s why the Johnson trade was good example. It made the Yanksd CONTENDERS and they made the playoffs because they lessened their weakness, thats what happened here. we are CONTENDERS, but only the Giants are Champs. And none of you thought they were going to be champs.
Remember Tiki quit, Eli is a bum. The Giants won’t make the playoff. It takes a lot more than a good trade. It takes luck, chemistry, heart, good subvs to repalce those injured,and a lot more. And we have a GM who says he’s done his job and that’s starts bad chenistry. OIne big check mark last week and now one bad X and now a second X as Pedro is gonna have PETA on his butt all year. The Mets gonna poo poo it. If so it will be on sportcenter for months with every mike asking him and Willie about it rather than baseball. 2 big Xs since the big checkmark in less than a week.
Sloppy –
I agree with all that you have said.
However, if the meet and greet tour in DC continues, the Mets can quietly start their Spring Training and get to work while the press rushes to cover the show at the Rayburn building.
Pedro may get some questions, but nowhere near as many as he would have gotten had the Congressional hearing not turned into a circus.
slop, “It made us CONTENDERS”
All one can hope for is that your team has a chance to make playoffs. When they make the playoffs, anything can happen (ie., Giants).
Mets are now a team that will contend for a playoff spot.
Who cares what the media thinks.
scoop: That’s right we are contenders. That’s all. We’re not the perfect team. We’re certinly not the ‘86 or ‘88 team in depth or talent and one of them won and one of them didn’t. Too many fans are running around like Yankee fans acting like the season’s over. First slump there’ll be 50,000 booing people in Shea because the team ain’t 162-0. All Delcos did was point out the team has holes and weaknesses. And he’s right.
I still don’t get your point JD. Nothing is ever guaranteed. Otherwise how else can you explain what the Rockies did at the end of last year or the Met collapse? The Yankees obtained Johnson and ALL HE DID was go 17 & 9 with a 3.79 ERA and ALL THE YANKEES DID was win 95 games and the division. What Santana does for the Mets is give them an excellent CHANCE at making the World Series. So why can’t you just say that nothing is guaranteed and leave it at that? It’s not brain surgery to realize that.
How about a post about how the Wilpon’s are total frauds when it comes to the behavior of their players. They did nothing for a kid like Milledge but let him be hanged for a rap song and giving fans high fives during a game, but a vet participates in cock fighting and the Mets issue a statement that tells us its legal in the Dominican. Then he lies about participating and doesn’t apologize. I guess its ok because he makes big bucks while a kid doesn’t. All Pedro needed to do was issue an apology. But he didn’t now this will hang as PETA prepares picketing and anti-Met PR for the season. Good job guys. Think the press doesn’t matter scoopcoop. Ask Bonilla and Randy Johnson….
There’s no guarantee that the mets will make the playoffs IMO.
To me, delgado is shot, alou is always hurt. I’m not overly excited with church in right field. Martinez and el duke are old and a DL away. Wagner last year is showing his age at 36. Sanchez hasn’t pitch in over a year and I’m not convinced that he will ever be the same that he was in 2006. Who knows if your going to get the same thing out of Maine and perez from last year. These are allot of uncertainties with tis club. It will definitely be an interesting season to see how this all plays out.
Tom G: NOTHING is guaranteed! Utley can get hurt again for the Phillies, Lidge can collapse, Ryan Howard can break his leg….Glavine and Smoltz’s arms might fall off because they are old, Escobar might tank at SS..etc…Get my drift? The Mets are good enough to make the playoffs. It’s doubtful that Perez and Maine are going to regress. It’s extremely possible that Pedro won’t hold up for the year and Delgado might indeed be shot…OR, Delgado bounces back to his 2006 production and now that he probably has most if not all of his arm strength back, Pedro will win 15 games. There are uncertanties with every club in the major leagues except maybe the Red Sox.
By the time you get to “Johan Santana doesn’t guarantee a World Series ring just like Randy Johnson didn’t,” you’re not really being some dispassionate voice of reason. You’re just pitting the perfect against the good; not to mention being a curmudgeon.
The Santana deal doesn’t just make the Mets “better” in the abstract. It makes them the odds-on favorite in their division, a point basically conceded by their rivals (with all the standard “let’s see it on the field” caveats).
So, pointing out that Santana doesn’t bring any guarantees with him is like telling me that people breath. The Mets have flaws? Really? Say it isn’t so. If you want to be insightful tell me a) as of right now, who in the NL East is better and why? b) if you’re implying that the Mets should have done something different, then pray tell, enlighten us rubes.
Steve,
I agree with you, I’m just worried about the mets. I don’t care about the braves and phillies.
Letsgo: Do you enjoy veal? Do you know what is done to calves to make veal? Animals are constantly slaughtered to give us good tasting steak, or chicken, or lambchops. Do you like to hunt? Do you like to make lobster at home? All of this is perfectly legal in the United States. Just like cock fighting is in the Dominican. You can agree with it or disagree with it, but there is no reason for the Mets to reprimand Pedro for doing something perfectly legal in his country.
Steve: I am not a moron like you imply. I wasn’t commenting on my lifestyle or yours, but fact that a group like PETA has jumped, the fraudulaent Wilpons claim they like peoiple with only the finest moral fiber and its bull, and I didn’t ask for a reprimand , I said he and they should have apologized. Why don’t youy read to read before you respond?
By the way I don’t hunt, I don’t eat lobster and I don’t eat veal… now so what it doesn’t make Pedro right or wrong does it?? You are either an apologist for anything that your guys do or you are very naive to think this will go away quietly.
Steve the original’s defense of cock fighting is obnoxious and typical of the lack of understanding and decency so prevalent throughout the world. Mr Martinez was filmed starting a cock fight. PETA asked him to apologize and to taking a counseling class that we offer. The fact that he and the New York Mets defended this action by saying it was legal demonstrates there lack of understanding of animal suffering. While not illegal, like the Michael Vick activity, one would think that an organization like the New York Mets and a public figure such as Mr Martnez would not shrug this off so lightly.
PETA appreciates the coverage that ESPN2 gave the issue this morning. I’m sure the Mets, like bad politicians will step by step, always too late, change their position as public opinion and bad publicity increases as the baseball season begins.
I guess then in order to be a member of PETA you also need to be a vegetarian. (Now THAT was obnoxious)Anyway PETA, answer my question about the way veal is made. Letsgo, I don’t think Pedro owes anyone an apology for being part of something that happens in his country and more importantly is legal. This is what Pedro has grown up with all his life. It’s what he knows. It doesn’t mean that it is immoral. I find Ryan Church being an anti-semite much more offensive than what Pedro did.
Letsgometsgo – It occurred to me that maybe, just maybe, Pedro’s not sorry.
As far as JDs post, yes there are still weeknesses on this team, that’s a fact. But the most important part of any team was addressed. There are other factors to address but I believe they will be handled in season to ensure that they are proved to be a weakness.
I am happy to start the season with this team. And I do believe that over all they are the best team in the NL. I don’t believe that this always means a winner, but on paper …
That being said I’d like to ask JD and the posters this question – Who in the NL really scares you? Who improved so much that you are scared?
The DBs improved starting pitching but that wasn’t their downfall, hitting was. The Rockies look good, The Phils lost key people and don’t scare me. The Braves? Third place again I would bet.
What really scares me? The Mets. They have always been a hard luck team!!! As Sloppy said “It takes luck, chemistry, heart, good subvs to repalce those injured,and a lot more.” I’ll take the luck anyday!!!
Santana/Pedro/Maine/Ollie/El Duque.
I can very easily see 4 15 game winners from this group. It may not happen but is very do-able.
If there is not a rash of injuries, they play the basics like their manager teaches, play D, play small ball and stay focused this will be a good season.
If they do the above this season will take care of itself and altho we will find out who scares us no one jumps out. We scare them.
Dave
You guys are pretty freakin sick for defending cock fighting. Its legal in New Mexico, but that doesn’t keep it from being disgusting. What Milz did wasn’t illegal but he sure was bashed for his rap album. I love the hypocrisy. If you are on the Mets anything goes but once you leave the Mets you are an evil piece of crap. I love Pedro but he screwed up and should be a man. Orignal, you been to a cock fight? I was, it was freakin bad, sick, gross.
As far as teams scaring me, I don’t know and I don’t care what they have. If we’re good we win, and if we’re not good enough we won’t. If we have heart we’ll be ok, but I’m not sure we have so much heart and fire on this team. The new position guys are used to perennial losing. Can they play when it counts? The left fielder can’t stay healthy. The 1st baseamn may be done. The SS collapsed in his first real tight race. Was that him or just a bad time for a slump? The closer chokes when it counts, another benitez and Heilmann is the same in the clutch. Maine and Perez and Pedro and El Duque they all got the heart and the fire and so does Wright and Beltran. Santana we’ll see. He got the stuff but does he got what it takes on game 162? Don’t you all wish anyone pitched that last game other than the Brave?
tomg, “I’m just worried about the mets. I don’t care about the braves and phillies.”
Care or not you have to look at your competition to better assess your prospects.
Braves and Phils are defintely flawed, as are Mets. But I like the Mets chances.
slop, “We’re certinly not the ‘86 or ‘88 team in depth or talent and one of them won and one of them didn’t. Too many fans are running around like Yankee fans acting like the season’s over.”
If we were 86 or 88 teams we’d be talking about a team that can easily win 95+. This team is a 90 win team. That is enough to make playoffs in NL. Once in, youv’e got a chance.
Any fan who knows something about the game and is objective has to look at this team and say they have a chance. But if they are like most callers who call into the radio talk shows, I agree. They don’t know BB and they think their hearts not their heads.
Ah Scoop and slop but what about those two great teams that didn’t even make the playoffs? The 85 Mets were a great team and the 87 team was great, and almost won despite the fact that every starter spent time on the DL.
Personally, I think by Delcos posting this crap, he’s being demeaning towards Mets fans intelligence. WE KNOW Santana doesn’t guarantee us anything, there’s 162+ games to play, we’re not stupid. But we do know Santana is a hell of a pitcher, IT HELPS. YOU CAN’T DENY THAT. Now enough with this, what about Randy Johnson thing? It doesn’t fit, every situation is different, every team is different, every year is different. We’ll see what happens, but we’re not stupid enough to think all of a sudden we’re guaranteed anything. He’s one pitcher (a great one) but he’s one guy. STOP INSULTING OUR INTELLIGENCE.
Mike C., you make some good points, but you need to be issues a citation by the hyperbole police.
“The Mets took two steps back in their offense by committing to Castillo and throwing away Milledge and Estrada for the anemic bats of Schneider and Church… ”
How do you figure? What did Milledge do that was so fantastic? You call Church’s offense anemic, but have you checked out his stats? His offense last year was comparable to a normal Aaron Rowand season. Remember, Paul O’Neill didn’t become “Paul O’Neill” until he came to the Yankees. While he certainly isn’t O’Neill now, and most likely will never be as good as him, he is far from “anemic” as you put it.
Schneider is not here for his bat. He is here to play defense. He’s going to get about 100 games with Castro getting the other 62. Everyone forgets this. Schneider/Castro is going to be a nice catching situation.
I don’t understand how the Nationals misusing Church constitutes any kind of valid judgment of his skills. Last I checked the Nationals/Expos were a poorly run organization. I also don’t put a lot into Bowden’s evaluation of Church. Much like Minaya, he’s spent his first few seasons there bringing in “his” guys: Wily Mo, Kearns, Young, etc.
I really hate to have to be the one to always defend Church, because I come across as making the guy out to be the second coming, but this just isn’t the case. He’s not going to turn into Shawn Green circa 1999, however I also doubt he’s going to be Todd Hollansworth. IMO, Church is going to be a solid everyday OF who sometimes sits against tough lefties.
As for his defensive abilities, even if he’s not very familiar with RF, he HAS to have more range than Shawn Green circa 2007.
As for Castillo, while I would have much rather seen them just hand over the position to Gotay, let’s not pooh pooh Castillo’s contributions. He played very well down the stretch last year, gave us a legit #2 hitter for the first time in a few years, and he is a maestro at turning the double play, even with his diminished skills. You could do a lot worse than Luis Castillo.
I share your concerns about Alou and Delgado, however I will say this: if healthy, Alou will hit. The guy is a very good hitter, even at this advanced age. I’m willing to give Delgado the benefit of the doubt. He’s in pretty good shape, and should come into the season stronger since he did not have to endure two offseason surgeries this year. Yes, I am aware he broke his arm, but a broken bone is usually easier to come back from than ligament surgery.