Spring Training a month away
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- January
- 14
Spring training is a month away. The Hot Stove season has cooled. Hell, for the Mets it never really began.
They could still do something between now and PSL, but I’m not holding my breath.
Assuming they do nothing, are they better or worse than the team that crashed and burned at the end of last season?
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on Monday, January 14th, 2008 at 8:56 am by John Delcos.
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According to the Boston Globe, two GMs have said that the Mets are now the front runners for Santana.
The hot stove didn’t really begin for anyone, except maybe the D-Backs and Tigers…Sure the Yankees signed a lot of players, but those players were incumbents. Omar did the same…either way its not over yet—as Benny mentioned, there has been some rumbling out of Boston that the Mets are the front runners in the Santana derby…of course, that could change with the wind
The Mets are definitely worse.
1. They have not improved a hurting and very weak depth wise pen.
2. They have weakened the starting rotation by having an older El Duque and no Glavine and a high risk Pedro.
3. they have an older and frailer left fielder.
4. They have a mediocrity with no high ceiling inright field, vice a kid with potential and excitement.
5. They have a Catcher with no offensive skills and with deteriorating defensive skills. He is on a 3 year decline for anybody who wants to go past the Minaya propoganda.
On the positive side, the Wilpons have sold lots of bricks!!!!
And to Ravi. Some teams had a good hot stove. Try the D-Backs getting Haren to give them the best 1-2 punch in a NL rotation. Try the Angels getting Hunter. Even the lowly Reds signed an good reliever.
Whatever Sloppy said. :-)
They are worse. Mostly because we lost a pitcher who won 13 games and pitched 200 innings. We have not replaced this pitcher which this blog almost uniformly hates.
The only positive is Pedro is back ( hopefully ) and Johnny Maine is a year older and hopefully wiser.
We also lost LM ( which at this point is minor ), but it means our depth is a bit less.
Oh yes. I saw that Endy got hurt this winter.
Mets played .500 baseball for the last 4 mos.
I don’t expect them to be more than an 85 win team as constructed now with a very possible downside (75 wins) if the old guys have old guy yrs.
Hence, I give them good chance to finish .500
But they could make playoffs by default b/c Braves and Marlins are probably worse than last yr w/the losses of Reinteria/Jones and Cabrera/Willis, Nats still stink and Phils only added Lidge but lost Rowand and their SP after Meyers and Hamels is bad (but it was bad last yr too).
To make playoffs assumes old guys don’t have old yrs. Pedro, El duqe, Alou, Delgado, Castillo have to perform well. That is asking alot.
Thus, I expect Muts to do what they did last yr: .500 BB.
Better.
Annie: Can you explain how this team is better than last year?
If Delgado comes back closer to 06 then it will help the team. Better offense will help the pitching and they can relax. Since he was not available all year it hurt the lineup which was only good when Alou was healthy.
As much as I wish Pedro is effective I think Delgado is more crucial.
I’m looking at a team that is slightly inferior on paper, but we shouldnt expect them to tank again down the stretch. They may not be better, but they could win a couple more games. Chances that they again get swept four times by the Phillies is low, and the Marlins are a AA team now so they shouldnt win games at Shea like they did last year…
1) Rotation: Same or worse: Pedro and Pelfrey need to step up and replace what Glavine gave the team from April through August. Maine, Perez, and Duque need to be what they were last year.
2) Bullpen: Same or better: They’ve added quantity, but I dont see the quality. The pen should stay fresher overall due to there being 7-10 active bodies to use throughout the year (unlike Sele and others) but they could blow just as many games on lack of skill this year as for tiredness last year.
3) Lineup: Same. More consistent production is needed as everyone was streaky last year, and couldnt hit w/RISP. It would be nice to see this lineup carry the team for stretched like it did in 2006 rather than compile like 2007.
4) Bench: Much improved: Having Marlon Anderson all year will help alot, and Health will be an ongoing issue.
Right now i vote with Annie that they are better than at the end of last season.
remember, last years team was almost like 3 different teams in the beginning/middle/end of the season! And it might not be hard to be better than the late Sept. team, but it was also largely the team that was cruising in mid-May.
At least the pen is finally rested! And Mota and Sele going is addition by subtraction.
Glavine needed to go too.
Pedro being healthy is a hug addition (his cameo seemed to prove the surgery was a success, and he has the winter to continue building strength without worrying about if he could still pitch).
Maine and Perez are primed to be better (just hitting peak years, and can build on last year).
Pelfrey of Sept. was better than Pelfrey of April.
RF, if they get a bat to share time with Church, will be overall better.
Reyes had his slump, and hopefully had a chance to relax and will learn something from it (he is still only 24, right?)
I believe that the Mets are better than the team “that crashed and burned at the end of last season”. For one I do not believe that Mets will continue to play significantly below the talent level of Reyes and Delgado as what occurred last year, paticularly at the end of the season. I think if Pedro returns even at 70%, he is better than more than half starters in the league today, plus he knows how to win. Losing Glavine will not be end of the world, but, should be a wake up call to Randolph to stop letting the team run him instead of the other way around. Try the kids, see what works, and, stop being so impressed with your team’s talent and payroll when they are not executing. And stop trying every re-tread in the world looking for lightning in a bottle. All of that having been said, the Mets I believe are better than their “crash and burn” evil twins. I just do no think they are the dominant force that many expected them to be and that they showed at the beginning of last season. They will be a wild card contender based upon the lack of any one team’s dominance in the National League East and can go either way depending upon injuries.
I think they’re better because:
1.) Church will be an upgrade over Green in RF
2.) A full year of Castillo (who, hopefully, will be healthier after his knee surgery) will be an upgrade over what they had at 2B during the first half of 2007
3.) The bullpen, with the return of Duaner Sanchez and with Matt Wise replacing Mota, will be an upgrade last year
4.) The bench, which is now missing Ricky “Cooperstown” Ledee and David Newhan (will his father continue to post here next year?), will be an upgrade over last year
The possible areas of decline (other than players getting older or having off-years) would be replacing Lo Duca with Schneider behind the plate and replacing Glavine with Pedro in the rotation. Methinks if Pedro is healthy enough to throw 200 innings, he’ll be an upgrade over the 2007 Glavine.
She’s an optimist. That’s ok. I think some of you are too pessimistic. The core is still there : Wright, Beltran, Reyes. Alou can still rake and even though he’ll only get 400 PAs thats 400 PAs of a very good hitter. I think Castillo is way overrated but he’s a decent on-base guy, regularly around .360 OBP. Maine and Perez are young pitchers coming off of good years. We’ll Pedro Martinez for a full year. Pelfrey should be considerably better this year than he was last year. There are reasons to be optimistic.
The pen is not that bad either. Wagner, Feliciano and Heilman are all good relief pitchers. Joe Smith showed great promise at the beginning of last year. He stumbled a bit but I expect he’ll regain the early season form. Jorge Sosa did fairly well out of the pen also. Schoenweiss is good if used primarily against lefty batters. I think this team could win 95 games if things break right for them. If not about 83 or 84. Most likely 88.
Taylor
Taylor, or basically what they showed over the last 2 years! similar talent levels (but different configuration).
In 2006, everything seemed to go right, and they won 97
2007, everything that could go wron did (and more!), and they won 88. And without the spectacular crash (say just a close call limp in!) they win 90.
So, I peg them at 90 wins as the target. Highly doubt it drops below 85, or goes above 95.
So say 90 +/- 4 wins. Does that seem fair?
IOW, a playoff caliber team but not likely to threaten the regular season win total the Mariners put up a few years ago (116?)
Of course some things have to break right to crack 90, but that goes for every team.
stick that seems fair to me. I’m eager for the PECOTA projections to come out but of course the final roster is needed to make those projections. I’m guessing their PECOTA projection will be from 88-90 wins. We’ll see. I think the one way that fans tend to be overly optimistic is in the case of players who had excellent seasons the previous year. Fans always expect them to repeat or even improve on them. But they don’t usually do that. Usually they fall back to their more established performance levels. PECOTA is good that way. It makes you think “Should I really be assuming that this guy will have another year like last year?”. That was part of the over-optimism of 2007. Valentin and LoDuca were not likely to repeat their 2006 performances. Even Beltran was likely to come back down some. All of that happened. Then again fans are too pessimistic about guys that had down years. They always think they are finished. Delgado is an example. He’s kind of old but I think he’ll probably bounce back some this year.
85 wins is more realistic w/so much depending on old guys doing well and not getting hurt.
No David’s Dad will not post on this site.
Regularly Panning the 25th man on the roster shows the lack of quality of the NYM fan base.
And PS: The team as constructed today will not match the win total of last year. The only area that Minaya has strengthened to date was the bench and then only if Easley and Chavez return to form. The fact that Chavez is suffering more leg problems this Winter indicates he will not be able to take advantage of his speed. And Easley’s status is certainly a question mark after a major injury.
Minaya is banking on too many players returning to form coming off major injuries, and is depending on too many players with serious age performing at a level they can’t perform at any more.
I foresee Randolph being fired as a scape goat around the All Star break, and I see Minaya being fired at the end of the year or at the end of 2009. As usual, the Mets made a short burst on the scene and are on another downward spiral.
How can they not be better. We now have the “Rey Ordonez of Catching” behind the plate ? LOL
I hate to say this but this guy who is pissed at Met fans has nailed our status as of today. And the sadder part of the whole matter is trading for Santana probably only delays the inevitable fall since our minor leagues are so shallow.
Hey Pop, the fans were frustrated at the lousy players Minaya added and your kid just was emblamatic of the crap he brougt in. But I thin kwe hated Mota and Schoeneweis more than NewhaN! Maybe he’ll make it with KC or some team like that.
This is a fantasy that we have this great defensive catcher. A little better than average maybe, but Grote he isn’t.
I don’t worry about our offense…
Somehow, I don’t really worry about our bullpen either(ps: I only worry about Wagner when the postseason comes)...
GET SANTANA!!! and we will be a better team… He gives us a legitimate ace and saves the bullpen every fifth day… It’s just that simple…
And if Pedro could be 80% of his old self, we would be in the World Series this season!!! (if Wagner didn’t blow it in postseason, of course…)
The longer this drags on the better our chances of landing Santana. It really depends on the twins. Do they need to trade him? can they accept a package of prospects for one of the best pitchers in the game?
I hope so.
According to the Mets roster on Wikipedia, Rickey is gone. I haven’t been keeping up with reading here, so I’m not sure if I’m way late on this. Just in case, letting everybody know!
Dave:
I know you don’t like to lose F-Mart… Fine, then let Twins PICK 5 to 6 prospects they like, except F-Mart, or maybe Pelfrey for the emergency starter or reliever…
Then GET THIS DEAL DONE!!!
Well I see the fans as too pessimistic in some cases and too optomistic in others. Still think talent wise this is the best team in the east. That’s how you have to look at it as the playoffs are a crapshoot.
As far as hatred of players? Isn’t that at least a tad too strong? I don’t hate any of the players. That being said I am glad that “Tommy” is gone. His reaction to his loss of the last game not withstanding, I couldn’t stand the constant “I’d rather be in Atlanta” mumblings. He is there now. And as a part of that “hated team” I hope the Mets pummel him everytime they play him.
clm, “Still think talent wise this is the best team in the east.”
Only if all the old guys and injured guys have decent yrs.
If several falter, the team is gonna have trouble playing .500
Two more reasons we are weaker than last year. For all his faults LoDuca could bat 2 7 or 8. The new catcher can only bat 8. Now we have a 2nd baseman who can only bat 2. So when Alou goes down or when Beltran needs a week off, Chavez has far less value then he did in the past. He cannot bat 2 or or 8 in this lineup, and he can’t bat anywhere else. So thanks to poor managment by Omar you all will be criticizing Willie for bad line ups half the time starting the day Alou gets hurt.
Somebody above said that RF will be all right if we find a righty to platoon with that star outfielder we got. Well, if you made a trade for a guy you have to find a platoon partner for, you made a very bad deal. We don’t have nine man pitching staffs anymore.
The way this team is right now is the same team we had in 2007. The major difference is that Willy will not have Mota coming out of the bullpen practically every single night hoping he finally rediscovered his stuff. That fact alone will add 8 wins to last season’s totals, which would put us on top of the NLEast.
What was the team last year? An 88 win team (thanks to a great start) or a team that played .500 ball the last four months. I think they are an 83 win team (I was going to say 85 but I remembered how they won 83 games a year in the early 1970s).
RIP Don Cardwell
Camillo’s point about Mota is well taken. Mets management should make sure that Willie is introduced to ALL of his relief staff this year. The Mets will not be better no matter what staff they have if Willie intends to again over use the seventh and eighth inning man or men to get to Wagner only to have them waste a good or very good outing by the starter which happened way too many times down the stretch this past year. You could have Seaver, Gibson, Cy Young, and, any of the other all time greats that have pitched and the Mets still would not win if their set up pitchers can’t hold the lead. That is, unless, the starter goes nine like the ones above used to. Unfortunately, that was a different era and a different game.
Believe it or not, Church was actually better against LHP in 2007 than Green.
Other than Green stole more bases, I’m trying to understand how this isn’t an upgrade over 2007.
With or without Santana the season hinges on Alou.
If Alou plays 100 games or more the Mets go to the postseason. If not the Mets will not win more than 81 games.
sloppy: at least the new catcher will not complain when he is hitting in the 8 spot. LoDuca whined all season about where he hit and just about everthing else. I am very happy he’s gone as I am about Glavine.
Benny: Because Lastings Milledge could have provided much more than Ryan Church will end up contributing so that is why some Met fans are blinded. But if you are comparing him to a light hitting Shawn Green from last year, then Church is definitely an improvement. In general though if every IF comes thru, this team will win a championship…they are as follows and they are all huge IF’s:
Pedro being healthy
Duaner being healthy and regaining his 2006 form
Heilman gets the Molina homer out of his head
Alou stays healthier than last year
Willie decides to use the squeeze play with Castillo up and Reyes on 3b with less than 2 outs
Delgado returns to 2006 form
Maine doesn’t regress
Ollie doesn’t regress
Pelfrey starts pitching like a 1st round pick
Wagner becomes trustworthy
Castillo makes it thru healthy
Geez, if I come up with anymore IF’s, my head is going to explode! :-)
I’m not convinced that Milledge will become better than Church. He’s younger, for sure, but his SLG numbers have been dropping with each level of advancement, his OBP seems to be largely fueled by his HBP (which will likely result in an injury sooner than later) and he hasn’t shown an ability to adjust to breaking pitches.
If Milledge is going to be better than Church, I think it will be years from now, not in 2007.
I also believe Milledge right now needs more than minor work on his fielding. He does not look smooth in the outfield and last season played more than a few fly balls into adventures. Playing centerfield exclusively may help this, but, not without a lot work in allowing him to better judge fly balls hit at him. I did not see Church play the field except in a few games, however, his stats and the reports mention no issue with his fielding.
It doesn’t matter how fast Milledge progresses. Church in his prime is an ALMOST average player. And unlike Milledge, he ain’t getting any better. An I did see him play, and I guarantee you you’ll never go WOW when he’s in the field.
I also believe all Met prospects are being hurt by the way this organization develops them They place them at levels they are not ready for, they play them in positions they won’t play in Queens, and they send them down or bench them for little reason time after time. I expect much better development with any who are traded.
Benny: You may not be convinced, but I sure wish we would have had the chance to see. To me we pretty much know what Church is capable of doing and I can definitely see Milledge surpassing it. I know it’s a small sampling but Lastings had a .961 OPS at home in 102 AB’s..would have loved to see him get the chance to improve on it.
Steve, that IF list isn’t really that bad, and probably not much different (and not as bads as!) the ones for other teams.
GSE – I agree. get Santana.
slop, “I also believe all Met prospects are being hurt by the way this organization develops them They place them at levels they are not ready for, they play them in positions they won’t play in Queens, and they send them down or bench them for little reason time after time. I expect much better development with any who are traded.”
Exactly. Milledge played CF in the minors. He is a CF. When Beltran went down and Milledge had a chance to play CF, he played it well.
RF in MLB is alot harder than in MiLB. The balls hit by RH to RF are hit w/authority that MiLB does not see. And if you never played it, and then try to do it at ML level it isn’t gonna be easy.
It is an aspect most people miss when the watch the game. And it is not unusual for this org to put players in positions they never did before b/c the ML team can “fix” those guys.
Even ML who have never played certain positions are asked to play somewhere else-Piazza, Easely, Valentin, etc… It can work for a few games, but not in the long run, expecially for a young guy who has even less experience.
Back to the better or worse than last yr.
If you look at most people who think the team is gonna be better, they have alot of ifs, ands, and buts.
Take any subject in life and put alot of ifs, ands, buts and see if you are as optimistic. I doubt you will come to such a rosey conclusion.
Hope for the best, but expect the worse. .500 BB this yr folks.
Church is an almost average player? His career OPS+ is 113, and he’s already produced a 131 season.
As for whether Milledge can surpass Church’s production, it’s worth noting that Church has slugged over .500 at every level (except AA), including the bigs. Milledge did it once—in A ball.
They could’ve had a starting line-up with Johnny Estrada, Ruben Gotay and Lastings Milledge in it… they now have a starting line-up with Brian Schneider, Luis Castillo and Ryan Church in it.
If that’s not an offensive regression at three positions, man, I don’t know what is. They are definitely worse for this off-season. Considerably so.
Wise is an upgrade over Mota in the bullpen, sure, and there’s an extent to which people getting healthy (Sanchez, Padilla) and more mature (Smith) will upgrade the bullpen automatically.
But they stood pat on their bench and stood pat on their starting pitching, improved their bullpen moderately and downgraded their offense by a large step backward.
Pitching got slightly better, defense got slightly better (Castillo and Schneider ARE good defenders, if only Castillo could stay healthy and Schneider could… hit a baseball with his bat) and hitting got a whole lot worse.
There are only four legitimate major league hitters on the Mets roster… Beltran, Reyes, Wright and Alou… and Alou is so ridiculously injury prone that if they get 90 starts out of him, it’s a miracle.
Not. Good.
And no one among the Estrada-Gotay-Milledge trio can play a lick of defense. They’d be scoring six runs—and letting in seven.
Benny; He may look good with your fantasy numbers, but when a guy is 29, has never had 500 ABs in a season, was sent to the monors at 28 years old, has a high of 15 HRs and 273 average, HE IS A BELOW AVERAGE PLAYER. The Mets will be sorry they got him and he will be booed out of town quickly.
The difference between good front office and bad. The Braves got Kotsay to let their kid minor leaguer have a year to develop. Good front office. The Mets bring up Milledge too soon because of a panic trade giving up Nady. Then they think better and get a vet (Green) to fill the slot and let the kid develop. So when Green’s time is up they trade the kid for a BELOW AVERAGE 29 YEAR OLD who will never be very good. Bad front office. This team will never sustain on top becauae there is no plan except panic, or sleep in the org.
Sloppy, were you thrilled when the Mets got Xavier Nady from the Padres? Probably not. Who is to say Church can’t duplicate or exceed what Nady gave the Mets in 2006? Plus, it’s not like we are relying on Church to produce monster numbers. The Mets will get that from their core players, Reyes, Beltran, and Wright.
A below average player?
League Average for Batting Average, 2007: .265
Ryan Church, 2007: .273
League Average for On-Base Percentage, 2007: .334
Ryan Church, 2007: .349
League Average for Slugging Percentage, 2007: .424
Ryan Church, 2007: .464
And that was 2007; he was much better in 2006 when he slugged nearly 100 points higher than the league average.
I believe he finished something like 11th or 12th in SLG among qualified outfielders in 2007, and would have finished 6th in 2006, had he had enough ABs to qualify.
No matter how you slice these numbers, you cannot come up with “below average.”
And, check your facts regarding his time in the minors at age 28: I believe he was recouperating from a serious shoulder injury sustained by running into the outfield wall.
Camilo: How do you know how I felt about the Nady trade? Since ytou spoeak to me instead of asdk I shouldn’t tell you, but to try to educate people like you here’s how I felt and why.
The trade for Nady didn’t bother me a bit because
1. Cameron was an unhappy center fielder playing right field.
2. Cameron was a below average hitter for an outfielder, a guy with pop but tons of wiffs and a low batting average.
3. Nady was young. Unlike Cameron he had upside.
4. Nady would not be an unhappy center fielder and was in fact a decnt replacement at first base some day when Delgado got old.
One more time about today.
You don’t trade your supposed most reaady for the nig time hitting prospect for a 29 year old who has shown nothing above average in any category and a catcher you could have had for nothing because he has zero offensive skills and defensive skills that have deteriorated for three straight years.
Benny:
As for your numbers they are poor and misleading becuase you should have compared Church’s numbers to outfielders because that is what he is. If he was a Catcher he’d be great, but as an outfileder who doesn’t play every day he sucks. Also, since he doesn’t play every day his numbers should be more impressive because he is protected from guys he can’t touch. And he is still below average in the outfield world. Come back and tell us what a star he is in the world of outfielders. Also, since he was so awesome in 2006 tell us why a 28 year old player in the prime of his career was sent to the minors by the worst offensive club in the league. The reason Benny is because he stinks.
And if he is a star like you are trying to tell us, did you buy a Church jersey for Xmas? I’m sure Omar will thank you for protecting him, but he has done this fan base no favors.
Hey Sloppy—Go fuck yourself.
Hey Benny: Shame shame…. The Ryan Church fan club using bad words. Especially the CHURCH fan club. Shame shame….
PS Benny: Your man Church played 58 games in the minors in 2006. Ryan Church was not on the disabled list in 2006. He has not been on the DL since 2005. So why was he sent down? Sent down in the prime of his baseball career?
Benny You are a disgrace.
I don’t care how great you are defensively… Ryan Church hits like Al Leiter against lefties and Schneider hits like Al Leiter… all the time.
The few stretches of time that Milledge and Gotay got consistent stretches of time at their positions? Shockingly… with repetition, they quickly improved defensively and continued to improve!
I know this is going to sound crazy but… if you stick with young players for more than two seconds, they get BETTER AS THEY PLAY MORE.
Wild, right? Minaya and Randolph never seem to have heard of this idea.
Not to mention Brian “The Animal” Schneider’s and Luis “Ol’ One-Leg” Castillo’s former defensive prowesses have already begun to slip prodigiously.
As for Estrada, yeah, sub-par defensively.
But I’ve gotten used to poor defensive catching after all these years of LoDuca and Piazza.
If it means having a catcher who can hit better than Ollie Perez… then I’ll take “eh” defense.
Schneider’s an eight-hole hitter, Church is an eight-hole hitter against lefties, Castillo and Delgado have regressed due to injury to where they’re both basically eight-hole hitters no matter what they used to be.
Congratulations, Minaya, in your pursuit of “good clubhouse guys”, half your everyday line-up are guys you’d wanna hide before the pitcher and hope for the best.
Seriously. Not being ridiculously cup-half full, which of the following line-ups does better next year?
Reyes
Castillo
Beltran
Wright
Alou
Delgado
Church
Schneider
(pitcher)
or
Reyes
Milledge
Beltran
Wright
Alou
Estrada
Gotay
Delgado
(pitcher)
Take off the rose coloured “defend your front office to the death” glasses and tell a dude which is better offensively, day in and day out.
You seem to have some problems with reading comprehension, so I’ll try to simplify it for you.
From what I understand, Church suffered his injury during the middle of the 2005 season and was still recovering from it when he was sent down to the minors in 2006. It was a serious injury. It’s also worth noting that the previous year, 2004, Church hit .346 in AAA—so it’s not like he needed the extra seasoning.
Further, in terms of comparing Church to other outfielders, the astute reader will note that in my post above, I did just that. In 2006, had he accumulated enough ABs to qualify, he would have been sixth among all NL outfielders in slugging. In 2007 he was ranked somewhere around 12th. (If you want to make it worth my time, I’ll actually look these things up; however, if you’d rather take this down personal, name-calling routes, we can do that, too. The choice is yours.)
dear curse boy. I will once again show how bad your info is about your favorite mediocr all player, Ryan Church. Ryan Church was disabled for a sprained ligament in his rib cage in June 2005. He was on DL for all of 2 weeks, not three months like Piazza was when he hurt his rib cage. He was then disabled in Aug 2005 for 2 more weeks for a broken toe.
An astute reader knows that a guy sent to the minors has stats that are not usable because he has limited playing time and played only in the most advantageous situations. An astute reader knows that the stats of part time players always worsen when they are forced to play full time. An astute readr knoiws that fantasy numbers don’t make for good real teams. But curse boys are not smart enough to know or debate anything without cursing.
PS: Who did the cursing?? Oh it was you…... very deep, curse boy, very deep. Who else cursed. Nobody. We want a real debate, not a Metsblog debate curse boy.
interesting interview of boston globe’s nick cafardo below. he thinks the red sox may be hoping the mets get santana.
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/16/q-a-with-nick-cafardo-of-the-boston-globe/
You can’t give up both F-Mart and Gomez for anyone… even Santana… because they traded Milledge for a pair of boots and a sandwich.
If you trade away your best outfield prospect for two bench pieces that would only be starting if they were on the Washington Nationals, you then definitely cannot trade away your second and third best outfield prospects away as well.
The Mets would have exactly one legitimate starting major league outfielder, Beltran, in their entire organization after Alou retires.
Endy’s a wonderful 4th OF but he gets exposed at the plate if you use him too much… Pagan’s 75% of Endy Chavez… Church is a platoon guy at best… Marlon Anderson is a great pinch-hitter and a butcher at every defensive position… Easley is an emergency outfielder who probably won’t get through this season without injury to begin with.
Once Alou inevitably goes down with injury, the Mets have Carlos Beltran and… Carlos Beltran… in the outfield.
No matter how good a pitcher Santana is, that’s robbing Peter to pay Paul at BEST.
Once you started in with the Ryan Church jersey nonsense, I was just accelerating our discussion to its envitable conclusion. If you don’t like that, then stay on topic and keep the personal stuff out of it; otherwise, I don’t see how you can complain about it.
Oh, and by the way, whatever Church’s injury—I had seen it reported as a shoulder injury from running into an outfield wall—it was a lingering one. He was being demoted because his injury was impacting his performance on the big-league level. The guy hit .346 and slugged for .622 at AAA (those are real, documented, objective numbers, by the way—the fantasy stuff is what’s going on in your head, pal) and didn’t need more time there.
Tell me, when’s the last time Lastings Milledge went .346/.430/.622 anywhere? I’m guessing you’d have to go back to high school.
Oh—and by the way—our part-time player has enjoyed success in his career against guys like Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Anibal Sanchez, Noah Lowry, Jeremy Bonderman, Jonathan Broxton, Billy Wagner, Al Leiter, Brad Lidge, Tim Lincecum, Braden Looper, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Ricardo Rodriguez, Ervin Santana, Jason Schmidt, Jeff Weaver, David Wells—you know, only the “most advantageous situations.”
There is a title for a player who has time and again proven that he can only hit lefties or righties and not both. That title is “a platoon player” and that is by definition a part-time player.
Yes, Church is a solid hitter against right-handed pitching. Not by any stretch an all-star but an above-average hitter, sure.
And my grandma has a better chance against lefties. He’s not a complete player and doesn’t look to ever end up one.
The floor of Lastings’ talent involved… you know… hitting both kinds of pitchers. Church’s ceiling doesn’t.
And that’s about all that needs to be said. Horrible move.
Dear curse boy…. Now you are giving us minor league stats for a guy show should be in the prime of his career and comparing them to stats for a guy who is 7 years younger and who has been jerked around by his organization…. I notice that since I correctly stated Church’s less than average outfielder stats, you bring up his AAA stats. Well, thank you Omar for another AAAA player on our roster. Newhan did good in Norleans, so I guess we should have given him a long term deal, right curse boy? Newhan hit 347 in NOrleans last year. How did we let him go? Benny your arguments are getting more pathetic by the post. Time to curse me out again. pal…....
Oh and Joe McEwing could hit Randy Johnson… BFD
Mike C.—By your definition, Milledge, too, is nothing more than a platoon player, as his career numbers against RHP are worse than Church’s against LHP. And, guess which type of pitcher is more likely to be on the mound?
Actually, I’ve provided you with MLB stats (which showed Church to be among the top 12 NL outfielders in SLG during the last two years), as well as minor-league stats, which provide a broader context of his potential. Both the MLB and minor-league stats show Church to be an above-average offensive player; if you’re having trouble understanding that, I can try to explain it for you. But the real, documented, objective data leaves no doubt as to whether Church is above average.
You’re correct in noting the age discrepancy between the two players. But, that said, providing me with David Newhan’s AAA numbers doesn’t exactly prove a thing about Milledge and his potential. A close look at Milledge’s minor-league numbers will show that his SLG has dropped as he’s faced tougher competition, and that his OBP has been fueled by HBP (rather than BB). You can’t say the same thing about Church, who has hit for power everywhere.
Finally, in regard to Joe McEwing, his mastery of Randy Johnson is only one example; in my post, I provided 20 examples of closers or front-end starters Church has done well against. Moreover, it was your argument that Church hadn’t been facing real competition; I’m still waiting you to either withdraw or refute this.
Dear curse boy. I’m sorry you can’t read or interpret what you read, so go on and beleive your misinformation all you want. I can’t wait umtil stat heads like yourself bemoan the lousy right fielder and catcher we have by May. or late April…...
PS Milz creamed minor league pitchers last year but only a fool like you would brag about it. If you are happy about trading top propects for less than average 29 year olds then fine, enjoy your mediocre team next year. I’m hoping dor top notch players and Omar didn’t get them, yet he gave up top prospect for them. Mike C called it right. The youth get better but fools like you and Omar don’t see it.
Anyway, when iss your next 4 letter word post coming curse boy. Any one who posts stuff like you did has lost all credibility forever, curse boy.
I’m wondering if you could provide any real, definitive evidence—i.e., not just fantasy stuff from your head—that would indicate that Church is less than average. That would be a real treat, but don’t strain yourself, OK?
And, yeah, that was a convincing sample size for Milledge last year. You still haven’t expressed a cogent thought about Milledge’s potential and the limitations that have been exposed during his minor-league career.
And, yes, of course, Omar is the fool—and you’re the genius. Anyone can see that one a mile away.
Benny:
Yopu lost your case to Sloppy many posts back when you reverted to cursing. Don’t you see he is now continually egging you on, and, successfully so.
Personally, I as a Met fan hope Church hits 340 and drives in 145, but guess what Benny, when a guy takes so many years to come along so slow, you know it ain’t happening. Omar made another bad deal and your throwing stats about the guy won’t change that.
Good morning curse boy….. I will give you a couple stats then I will put you in my dead person’s file…..
For cursing you deserve nothing. These stats will be very simple, kindegarten level so even the dumbest curse boy could comprehend….
1. Average batting average for outfielders in 2007 = 273
Church batting average in 2007 = 272
This includes every guy brought up out of desperation because of injuries, so in reality if Church is a rgualar he is even more below average than indicated.
2. Age comparison
At age 22 Ryan Church played low A ball and hit 287. He was promoted to hiugh A ball and hit a lofty 242.
At age 22 Latings Milledge hit 272 for the major league New York Mets. Amazingly, despite all the flaws in his swing that are mentioned by curse boys he hiot for the same average as the mature, fully developed Ryan church hit at age 29.
Good bye curse boy. What’s worse then you losing is that all Met fans except you lost because of the trade. But the fool is you curse boy for thinking your GM is perfect when in fact he has been a bad GM for the last two winters.
Oh, I get it: You think batting average is a more relevant stat than, say, on-base-percentage and/or slugging percentage.
You ought to adjust your sightlines to see a.) how often a player doesn’t make an out and b.) whether he’s putting himself into scoring position and/or advancing runners already on base. These are both much more critical than merely focusing on batting average.
But I will give you credit for trying. I mean, relying on something as limited as BA is better than just regurgitating the fantasy stuff swirling around in your head.
Finally, I’m confused as to why my personal attack on you as somehow worse than yours on me, particularly when you made yours first. Isn’t this really the pot calling the kettle black, and isn’t your stated intent to put me in your “dead person’s file” really just confirmation of it?
It’s not successful, OP. He made a personal attack first, and has since attempted to capitalize on my response as a mechanism to do what he’s wanted all along: An exit strategy from having to defend his criticisms of Church. Methinks if he had a cogent argument here, he wouldn’t have initiated the personal attacks.
I’ll agree that Church has taken awhile to come along, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s somehow limited or has a low ceiling. At age 24—which is a very appropriate age for that level—he absolutely demolished AAA pitching. If he were breaking through against AAA pitching at age 27, I’d be concerned; but he did it at 24. He’s been derailed by injuries since then, but has also given glimpses—slugging over .500 in the bigs in 2006—that it’s still there.
As for whether it’s a bad trade, we’ll know in time. But if the other Omar harbored any doubts about whether Milledge would develop enough power to warrant a corner-outfield position (and his SLG numbers have been dropping as he’s moved up the minor-league chain), then he had to deal him sooner than later.
Benny:
First of all my name is not OP, it is OMAR. The only OP is Ollie.
Secondly, I have to agree with Sloppy. If you think that any minor league stats at the age of 28/29 are good then you are in a fools’ dream. The only guys who still play in the minors at that age are fringe players, what is known as AAAA. Also, I did not see him attack you, just your positions and you responbded with a go f yourself response. Therefore I am surprised you got any response.
You asked the guy for stats. He gave you basic stats and then he gave you creative stats and of course you rejected them. Why are your stats any more valuable then his? When was OB% ever part of the triple crown? Why doesn’t Milz getting hit by pitch count? It never bothered Frank Robinson any did it? Do you even know who he is?And I agree with him. You don’t trade a 22 year old who is your most ready for the bigs prospect for a 2 pieces of junk like Minaya did. Don’t use me to defend your position especially when it is so bad.
Mike C
I would take option #1. Delgado won’t stink this year like last and having LM ( who can’t hit a breaking ball ) will strike out with Jose at the plate and the power guys will come up with no one on.
OP—I disagree with you on several counts.
1.) No one is quoting Church’s stats as a 28-yr-old minor leaguer. I quoted his stats as a 24-year-old. A little accuracy goes a long way.
2.) He did attack first. He spouted some crap about me buying a Ryan Church jersey, which had absolutely, positively nothing to do with our discussion, except for personalizing it. If you’re going to initiate a personal attack, I don’t see how you can complain about how it subsequently escalates.
3.) OBP has been considered to be much more important since Branch Rickey first championed it, some 60 years ago. (Now it’s my turn for the condescending question: Do you even know who he is?)
4.) If you think it’s a bad trade, then be able to explain your position beyond farcical comments like Church is “below average.” There’s no responsible data to support that conclusion. If you want to argue that you don’t trade your best prospect, great. But if you’re going to say Church is junk or below average, then you should have something to support these claims—something beyond sideshows about buying Ryan Church jerseys.
When I think of Ryan Church I think of Benny Agbayani. They are very similar players…both late bloomers for MLB, and didn’t do much at least in Benny’s sake after the age of 29. I fear that Church is no better than him.
Benny: Listen to yourself. You are upset about the Ryan Church line!!!!!!
Pretty funny stuff. If that’s your rag I believe you are sad. Actually if that is what sets you off, you need to see a shrink, real fast. because that is something called sarcasm, which obviously you were never taught about.
Second, Don’t tell me or anyone else what we have to do. We don’t have to do anything. We aren’t your slaves.
PS: What number is your Ryan Church jersey? HAHAHAHAHA
I don’t see the difference in his Ryan Church jersey comment and me telling him to go fuck himself. I believe the intent of each comment was the same. Perhaps you can clarify, eh?
I generally agree with what you’re saying re telling what to do and the slavery; I phrased that, err, sloppily. What I’m trying to say is that if you can’t substantiate your position without resorting to personal attacks, perhaps you shouldn’t be advacing that position and, more important, shouldn’t be surprised by the subsequent responses. You can’t make the personal attack—and then feign outrage when it’s returned back at you.
I don’t think Church has a shot (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) at being Agbayani. I’ve seen pictures of Agbayani from his AAA days and he was actually a lot smaller. Makes you think he made the most of his shot (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) at the bigs.
Since you can’t see a differnce I can’t explain it any more since you obviously haven’t advanced beyond a third grade intellect. By the way did you see the other post: For 600 bucks you can go to PSL and kiss your boy’s butt in person!!! HAHAHAHA!!!! Please post a shot for all of us.
No, honestly, OP, I don’t see the difference. What if I had written that he “stick it up his ass,” rather fuck himself? Would that be appropriate? What if it were a suggestion to “have intercourse with himself”?
There’s virtually no difference between what he wrote—and what you just posted this evening, for that matter—and me telling him to go fuck himself. The intent in all three communications are the same; it’s only a slight semantical difference.
So, please, explain to me why word choice should make a difference when intent is clear. I’m dying to hear this one.
You guys all shut up. Nobody cares about your feelings so take it somewhere else. Thx.