Santana … why keep dancing?
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- January
- 11
As long as Johan Santana is on the block the Mets will be mentioned. They will because the Mets are a New York team with money.
However, as long as the Red Sox and Yankees continue to play chicken, why should the Mets be willing to up the ante? Neither Boston nor the Yankees need Santana, and it is questionable whether the really want him. Their interest is primarily to keep him away from the other.
Sure, the Mets can sweep in if they give the Twins a half-a-dozen prospects and Santana $140 million. Why should they? They should start taking prospects off the table. Tell the Twins to take-it-or-leave it. And, do the same with Santana when it comes time to talk contract. Then, we’ll see how anxious the Twins are to move him and how badly he wants to leave.
The Mets are being played for suckers if they continue this posturing with the Twins, and if they did do the deal, it would set back the franchise. The Mets have future holes after this season that having Santana wouldn’t fill. It’s time to dance with somebody else.
This entry was posted
on Friday, January 11th, 2008 at 11:56 am by John Delcos.
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JD: The Mets have the money to plug in any holes the trading of the prospects mentioned would cause. They have a few high draft picks this year that can also be used to replace the prospects that would be traded. Do you think Mulvey or Humber or Guerera in their dreams are going to be as good as the next 5 years of Santana? I'm all for the here and now. I'm tired of waiting for the future. You go for the gold when you can get it and Santana is gold. You forget that this team is in sore need of an Ace and not one pitcher in their farm system projects to be an ace either. And who is to say that F-Mart doesn't become the next Alex Escobar?
First, thanks for the new post so we don't have to argue Santana on a Clemens post!
Why the hostillity about the Mets getting an ace. What holes do these prospects fill down the line? First base, NOPE… Closer… Nope…. Ace starter NOPE….
Left Fielder, yes. Catcher NOPE. But we've seen what this GM thinks about giving a kid a chance to fill a hole. First he gets Green to block the kid then he gets Church. At second, a kid is doing good and he gets a veteran. At catcher, knowing a hole was coming he didn't even protect the only decent catching prospect in the system from the Rule 5 draft! So what holes down the line will these guys fill. Maybe at best left field, but Minaya would probably search for another vet anyway so what the heck do they do for us. Maybe a 5th starter but Minaya would prefer a Lima or a Lawrence over a kid.
Maybe the Mets are being played. If so shame on Minaya, again. That would be winters in a row. But if the Mets get Santana, there really is not much of a loss since the front office doesn't care about youth.
As for the salary, when they signed Beltran for too much, it has only taken 3 years for guys like Hunter to get more money. So signing Santana for too much will only be a temp thing as well. He's certainly worth more than Zito isn't he? As for the fans, the Wilpons are jacking prices up so much it doesn't matter what the payroll is. We get burned either way.
To John…..Well said!!! I could not agree more! Give them an offer with only some of the prospects mentioned and then move on if it is not taken. As long as this dance with the Twins continues, the Mets cannot make any other substantial moves if they wish to go in another direction than Santana.
JD-
yeh I'mm gonna have to go ahead and disagree with you on this one mmmmmkaaaaayyyyyyyyy. Seriously, the only good prospects we have are FMart, Mulvey, and Guerra. Sorry Gomez and Humber aint that good. And damn we need Santana. And, why should we care what Santana gets paid? I'd rather they raise tixx prices and pay extra for a good team, than watch a repeat of 07.
Give them and ultimatum, Take it or Leave it? Howd that work for Hank and the yanks when they tried that in december?
JD, "It’s time to dance with somebody else."
sane, "As long as this dance with the Twins continues, the Mets cannot make any other substantial moves if they wish to go in another direction than Santana."
Who would that be? I don't see any Santana's available except the one in Minn. Who else can they trade with?
Please don't tell me Blanton. If that is the direction, just let Pelfrey or etal start.
JD, "if they did do the deal, it would set back the franchise."
I assume you mean the rumored deal of 5 for 1. 5 for 1 is alot and I would hope Omar does his best to bring down the price. But Santana gives you the #1 they don't have and I believe won't have w/any of the players mentioned.
Unless you believe these players are legit all stars it has little effect on the franchise. All the "pundits" including yourself have stated that these players are not top talent.
None of the five have made any contribution to the ML team yet and none of them are expectd to do so for at least a yr and in some cases several yrs.
To top if off, Mets have poor record of player dev. why have things suddenly changed?
Lastly, 40MM comes off the books next yr. From an ability to buy players, I don't see how Santana's contract will have an impact.
Last point. Mets won WS in 1986. Last time they had a #1 SP.
I usually agree with you on everything you write, but not this time. The Mets need Santana who is a real ACE. He will make the rest of the starters better; he will make the bull pen more rested; he will take pressure off the hitters every 5th day by guaranteeing to keep the team in the ball game against the opponents ACE. Most of the prospects are not going to be All Stars or ACE's. Those we have to buy on the open market. Esxept that ACE's are no longer available on the open market. Therefore over pay in this trade by one extra prospects and get Santana and play meaningful games in September and October were ACE's beat hitters.
Interesting debate. My 14 year old has already asked if he can get a Santana jersey if the Mets and Twins can make a deal. Just a perspective on at least one part of the fan base.
My bias would be to not do the deal and play the kids. But, given they are jacking up prices to lead into Citi, and their history of not playing kids, I'm not sure ownership or management is interested in sending the "we're gonna take a step back and build with youth signal".
Besides, they'd like to sell a lot of Santana jerseys and shirts.
Delcos and firends are ohj so wrong on this one. This team neds excitement. Santana gives them excitement. This team needs an ace. Santana gives them an ace. This team needs legitimacy. Santana gives them that. This teasm needs help for Pedro. Santana gives them that. This team needs a guy to help the pen. Santana gives them that. Thisteam needs a fan base that will come to games for something other than looking for their names on a bricl. Santana gives them that. What do all the prospects mentiuoned give the team or the fans. Nothing. Maybe a false hope for the future, a hope that Omar Minaya will break when he trades them anyway for bums!
I think JD secretly wants the Yankees to get Santana. ;-)
Gomez, Martinez and Guerra are at a minimum two or three years away before they can make any meaningful contribution in the big leagues. While they project as POTENTIAL star players, right now they aren't stars. They are merely projections. They may never be stars. It makes no sense to keep guys who are years away when you have the ability to acquire one the top three pitchers in the game NOW. A true, legitimate ace power pitcher in his prime who strikes guys out is not readily available. These types of pitchers in this day of age never reach free agency. You either have to acquire one through a draft and devlop or make a trade. The Mets don't have the luxury of waiting 3 or 4 years for an ace to develop. This isn't Pittsburgh or Kansas City.
A trade for this caliber of pitcher is going to hurt. But sometimes you have to bite the bullet and do this. This team is a third place team right now. They will continue to finish in third place for the foreseable future if they decide to develop 'potential' and see it realized.
What we are talking about is two unproven back of the rotation pitchers. You can get them through free agency. They are giving up two unproven corner outfielders. You can get them through free agency. They are giving away an 18 year old pitching prospect who is potentially one pitch away from injury which may never allow him to be a big league pitcher.
If you have to give up five prospects to get Santana, as much as it is a gamble and it sucks, you have to do it. This is a calculated risk. But it's a deal that makes sense.
Starship…. You mean your kid did't want a Church jersey?
Just kidding…..But seriously Starship makes a great point. How much revenue will come to the poor Wilpons in Santana merchandise. Afterall, we've bought all the Wright/Pedro/Jose etc stuff we're gonna buy,and we ain't buying Church/Schneider/Wise jerseys.
Colon and Freddy Garcia's are out there too. Why dont the Mets just give Bartolo and Freddy each 1 year deals and pray that they get a combined 200 innings? sure, colon may be hurt, but it's worth a gamble. link below:
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/11/updates-on-bartolo-colon-and-freddy-garcia/
Santana had a WARP3 of 9.4 last season. Just as a comparison John Maine had a WARP3 of 5.6, Oliver Perez 4.1, Tom Glavine 4.5. He's almost 4 wins better than John Maine and about 5 wins better than Glavine and Perez. Kyle Lohse had a WARP3 of 1.2 last year and 3.0 the year before. Blanton had a WARP3 of 7.0 last year. Santana was 2.4 wins better than even Blanton. Does that make him worth $28million/yr? I don't know but he's worth a lot of wins.
Ed: Yes, that would be just like the Mets to try and find guys off the scrap heap. Acutally according to Onley, the Mets were ready to sign Colon but after they read his medical reports the deal fell thru. I don't want these guys. Go for the big fish this time.
slop,
"How much revenue will come to the poor Wilpons in Santana merchandise"
Exactly the way the Yankees think. Exactly the way the Mets have sort of thought when the got Beltran, pedro, billy. Now finish the equation w/Santana.
Star players lead to big $$$$.
Santana guarantees playoff games too. More $$$.
And besides, don't all of the Mets prospects stink?
Why keep them? So they can get more Church's?
Getting Santana will definitely make them at least 3 wins better. Getting Colon or Garcia or both won't necessarily make them any better. That's why Santana is worth so much. Another thing to consider is that Wright and Reyes are coming in to their primes. Getting Santana for the rotation through Wright and Reyes' prime years sounds real good to me.
What the hell is WARP3? Is that like faster than the speed of light?
Anyway, I agree with the others above that we need an ace as most here have said all year. Santana is that ace. Also as others said all players mentioned are a few years away – altho Mulvey and Humber might play this year. Also as I have stated in the past a prospect is just that, but 5 guys is a lot and we will have nothing in the minors to speak of after a trade like this.
At the end of the day unless someone like the Pirates will give up their young pitchers it is Santana and Blanton. I would weigh the price of both and if Blanton is significantly less than Santana get him. But an ace is an ace and Santana is one of the best out there. If the price for Santana is one player less than Blanton get the Twin and sign him to a 5 year deal.
Dave
The key is to not give up more than you absolutely have to to the Twins.
The prospects aren't just for alling up to use. They are also what you can trade for players to fill other needs.
So if you get Santana without Martinez, you could always trade him elsewhere, but once they are gone, they are gone.
If it is a stalemate, time actually works in Omar's favor, since the Twins are really the team that has a deadline (in a sense) to make a move.
The 4 names bandied about is already a lot to give up for 1 year.
I still think this will get done, but Omar should be actively working on plans b – z just in case. And make sure the Twins know something else could be getting close.
If the Mets move on and do another deal, the Johan market takes a beating, and likely the Twins get a lesser package than what they could get out of Omar.
Time to get creative!
We went with the approach of get the crap and hope it sticks last year when we signed 5 broken players. Well last year all those players stayed broken.
Bottom line the 2 top pitchers we have are 5th starters for this year at best. We have 2 old guys who will not pitch a whole season. We have the same pen as last year and we have 2 young pitchers who won 15 games each but were not consistent for the year.
If we want to be better than last year we need to get a good pitcher we can count on – oh yeah we lost 13 wins and 200 innings this off season. Right now that means Santana/Blanton unless we can get someone else like Ian Snell or a nice young guy like him.
If we do not make a deal we have Pelfrey as #5 again and say maybe 8 wins if he pitches well. I look forward to watching other teams in the post season.
Dave
The actual formula for WARP3 is ridiculously complicated but the basic idea is that it distills a players performance down to the number of wins they are above the average readily available AAA or Independent League FA or the like. It stands for WinsAboveReplacementLevel3. The beauty of it is it allows you to compare players in terms of team wins (not the silly pitching stat). So a team will win on average 3 more games with a guy with a WARP3 of 7.0 then if that same guy had a WARP3 of 4.0. I find thinking in wins gives me a better feel for value. That's the ultimate goal after all.
Who cares about trading Mets prospects. John D, I know you haven't been covering the Mets that long and do not know about Mets history, but every prospect the Mets have raved about for the past 20 years other than Wright and Reyes has absolutely stunk. Do we really think that Fernando Martinez will be any different than Alex Escobar or Alex Ochoa. They all stink. Trade them for Santana immediately. Without Santana the Mets are an 85 win third place team. With him they are the NL East favorites.
I assume Freddy Wilpon will never pay him, and that is the real reason the trade will never be made. It is the money not the worthless Met prospects that will hold the deal up.
They're paying Delgado, Beltran, Pedro Martinez, and Wagner big $$$. Why won't they pay Santana?
Stick: I don't think Omar would make the trade without Santana signing a contract extension. So you wouldn't be getting only 1 year of him.
I'm in the minority again – I don't want Santana or any other pitcher/player who needs a multi-year, multi-dollar contract.
I would rather have a bunch of the kids come up from the Mets organization, go to Spring Training and try to make the team. Yes, I know that's an old fashioned way of doing business, but I'm not seeing that this new multi-multi policy is doing any better.
In fact, my Pitcher Policy would be 'the younger, the better' – too many of these older guys develop physical and/or psychological afflictions that require many months of R&R at full pay…...
It'll be hard to find players who'll play for $1 for a year. In fact I think that would violate the minimum wage law.
Annie: So what you're trying to say is that you never want to see a Met championship again ever in your life? When Reyes and Wright are done with their contracts and will be in the position to make 15 mil per year..will you want to get rid of them? There are very very few teams that can build with kids without multimillion dollar players..even teams like the 2003 Marlins had guys like Pudge and Mike Lowell who were making 7 figures as well. Like it or not, the days of building strictly with youth are over and done with.
Quote :
They’re paying Delgado, Beltran, Pedro Martinez, and Wagner big $$$. Why won’t they pay Santana?
You answered your own question. That is why they will never pay him the money. They have a limited payroll with a budget and will never pay a pitcher $ 20 million a year. They had an excuse for every player from Guerrero to A-Rod. They will never pay him. They did have that one aberrational year when they signed Beltran and Pedro, but that was because they were irrelevant, and needed to make themselves relevant again. Now they are relevant, and selling 3.8 million tickets. They do not need to spend money anymore. The Mets are run like a business entity only. Why should they spend $ 20 million when they are drawing fans, and have the new ballpark coming ? They will never pay the guy. It is not the prospects. It is the money. It always is with this organization.
Blanton is a good option. He's a very good pitcher. Not just an innings eater like Lohse, Garcia, Colon, or Hernandez. You're right the Wilpons probably don't care that much about winning but Omar definitely wants to win. Santana is a bona-fide stud, an all-time great in his prime. But how much is he worth? I don't really know the answer to that. Maybe $25M/yr? $30M/yr? For how many? All the people who are saying the Mets should go after him should offer their opinion on how much they'd be willing to pay him if they owned the Mets.
The reason the Wilpons allowed Omar to get high priced guys a few years ago was because Shea stadium was half empty every night. Its as simple as that. If they allow Omar to get Santana I will be pleasantly surprised to see that they actually want to win. They don't need Santana to fill the park the next 3 years, so I hope I am wrong about this ownership. They prove it by getting the ACE. They prove me right by giving us the phony excuse that the Twins wanted too much if they don't get him. If they don't get Santana I don't see Blanton coming. The A's will really hold a desperate Minaya hostage.
If I owned the Mets I would pay a premier pitcher the 20mil or so per year that they want/deserve. You do not do that for a pitcher like Zito who clearly is on the decline but still effective.
The problem is gutting the farm. Not that he won't be worth the players involved – he very well may be. Just that as with anything – best laid plans blah blah blah. You need contingency plans. Having nothing in the minors means no one gets hurt which clearly won't happen with this team.
But yes. If I was the owner for the numbers that Santana is rumored to want I have no problem. The issue is the team and depth and flexibility.
Taylor – Thanks for the explanation on warp3.
Thing is I disagree with the numbers. You are quoting Maine/Glavine/Ollie as being about 5 games better than a AAA pitcher. From what I can tell most AAA pitchers cannot win you more than 5 games or so – not counting the ones the team wins with them not the pitcher of record.
All of the Met pitchers listed won 13-15 games. That means the avg available AAA pitcher wins 9/10 games? That is your avg #4 starter on a team. Something is wrong here.
I can well imagine that the Wilpons really wouldn't mind setting aside some extra time on opening day in 2009 to hoist a WS flag/banner during the first home game in Citifield.
The most direct way to get to that point at present is by signing a dominant Ace who will be making the favorable AL -> NL switch. None of the other guys out there even come close.
And JD, I honestly don't know who else is on the Met's dance card—real bottom feeders out there—who want big bucks. And really, Blanton? Overweight (terrible sign in a young athlete) plus Beane would steal us blind.
It may be painful, but we will have to pony up on some level—though I agree that we should try to wait the Twins out a bit, they most assuredly do not want to be holding on to Santana in his walk year…
JT
Oh, and my 13-yr-old already asked for a Santana jersey as well.
I do not know how much the Wilpons are willing to spend, but we did go get Paulie and Delgado and the other Carlos. If they do not want to spend money why allow the current GM to go after them?
I'll make the deal if the price is four prospects. Sometimes you have to overpay and as others point out there is ancillary income in merchandise and tv ratings. But 20 years ago I thought it was a steal trading 5 players for Frank Viola. It wasn't a disaster but it didn't turn out to be a good deal.
The Mets needs Santana, clearly. However, giving up 5 top prospects is hard to swallow. In 2009, the Mets will be in real trouble trying to replace Delgado, Alou, Pedro, and probably Church (that's 1 SP, 1B, RF, and LF). That's a lot of FAs to sign in 1 offseason…..
And maybe they'll need to replace Perez and Wagner….
sloppy stated this correctly. The only reason they spent money a few years ago was because Shea Stadium was empty, and the Mets were becoming irrelevant. Now that they have a full ballpark and a new ballpark coming they will spend no new money for at least three years. The best you can hope for is that they spend any money that comes off the books on new players. Forget about them increasing the payroll. They have added loads of new revenue through ticket price increases and increased sales, but they will never increase the payroll. Forget about it. They will just use the increased revenue to pay for the new stadium.
To Mr Chili:
Maybe, maybe maybe…. Don't make a trade because of a maybe and you will find yourself in the cellar very fast. Stand pat because someday you'll need something. We saw stand pat last year and the team collapsed and proved itself far inferior to the 2006 club. Stand pat and we'll be worse next year again. We already are worse than last year's club.
ChiliGTC makes a good point about replacing players in 09. However I think you can find a 1b,of in FA. It is the pitchers that worry me.
As for revenues and all in this market if you dont spend more than what we have you will field a good team but will not win it all. If you go for it on the right players you become relevant every year and the revenues follow – or at least the value of the franchise goes up.
I'm going to go with Steve on this one: I think Delcos is a closet Yankee fan. We should have seen it when he wrote us about hiding in our basements in our blue-and-orange underwear. Now, the signs are becoming clearer.
This is a tipping point for Mets ownership.
If they want to win, get Santana.
knock Yanks off back page, get Santana.
Get fans excited for 08, get Santana.
Change the idea they only spend when the business is in trouble, get Santana.
Don't get him, and it is business as usual for the Wilpons; ie., spend only when you have to, don't upset Bud S b/c you went over lux tax threshold, complain you are not on back page, etc, etc….
Bottom line: do Mets want to be winners (Yanks, Sox) or have a nice stadium and be losers (O's)....
I partially agree with jd. I think the mets should not give up the whole farm. The yankees and redsox don't need santana. The mets should be smart and wait until either he becomes a free agent or until the middle of the season when the twins will be desperate to get anything for him instead of nothing when he becomes a free agent. Knowing the mets and minaya they will be desperate and trade the house for this guy and than pay him 140 million, that's desperate and stupid.
tomg, you use flawed logic. A year ago many said wait till next winter and sign Zambrano because the Cubs are for sale and can't re-sign him. HAHA!!! He's a Cub for a long time. Now you say wait and get Santana in a year or in July. If the Sox or Yanks need him in July they will give up whatever to make the playoffs, and if its next Winter you can be sure the Sox/Yanks will pay him when all they'll lose is a draft pick. In the Yanks' case, Santana will come cheaper than the rip off prices the Yanks spent on the Clemens/Pettitte duo. In the Sox cased he'll replace Schilling for not that much more. Either way, in the FA market, he ain't coming to Queens. You can book that my friend.
Unfortunaltely, this is about the ownership of this team. They have failed to sustain a winning team forever. Now they have a situation where they know they will sell the seats for a few years regardless of the team on the field. So will they prove us wrong and show they want to be first class every year like the Sox or Yanks or will they be satisfied to go thru the motions and wait until Citi Field is empty and then treat us to some more false promises.
I've given my heart and money to this team for 45 years. Now, with thewir new park, new cable station, if they don't spend to be the best I will have to reconsider. I've obliterated my formerly beloved Knicls from my system I can obliterate the Wilpons as well. If the big move of the Winter is Church we have our answer.
in case you didn't read this one,
http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-spmets0112,0,2362909.story?coll=ny_home_rail_headlines%3Fgcid%3Dsjwti-google-nyc-national-britney_spears-brittany_spears
No, it is not about that idiot Spears. It is about Mets and Santana.
slop,
Exactly. This is about the Wilpons. This is a tiping point of either being the same old song of not going the extra yrd when the team is up and then waiting when attendance is down before doing dome improvements or making a big splash that will pay dividends (literally).
But I have my doubts until I see it happen.
Remember 2000. Arod available. Nope. We don't need him. We just made the WS.
Remember Guerro. Nope. He has a bad back.
You could point to many other examples of when the best was available and the Mets chose to go for a guy the could "fix".
I'll never say another negative word (not that they would care or know) if they get this guy.
JD the mets are in no position to make a take it or leave it offer. The fact is the Mets need Santana more than anyone else and the Twins dont have to trade Santana. So it is important that they land santana, even it means givin up evry single prospect in the farm system! Get santana to queens by any means neccessary .. STAT!
sloppy,
I agree 100%, it's the wilpons and things will not change. After this past off season and the way things turned out for the mets this past season I have already had it with the mets, just like I had it with the knicks. The wilpons do not want to pay the luxury tax so this whole santana thing is bull crap because the mets won't pay him 140 mil.
The Wilpons are in baseball for one thing and one thing only, and that is to make the largest profit they can. They raised ticket prices through the roof and are drawing almost 4 million people now, and they have not raised the payroll one dime. They have the new ballpark coming now, and they have no need to raise payroll, because they will fill up the ballpark, anyway. The only reason they spent some money a few years ago was because the ballpark was empty and the Mets were irrelevant. Now they are selling well so they will spend no more money. If you match revenues to the Mets payroll they have one of the lower payrolls in the league. They will never get Santana, not because of the prospects, but because of the money. They will tell us it was the prospects they did not want to give up, but the real reason is they do not want to pay Santana.
Ok well ask yourself this: what is more important, the need for an ace, or the need for a back-end starter and leftfielder? I'd prob have to go with the former on that one. And anyway, won't even matter if the holes are filled without an ace. We'll be where we are now. Get the sure ace now and worry about the holes later. In my book, an ace with no outfielder is better than the best outfielder in the world with no ace. It's called the Boston Red Sox. Crisp and Drew blow balls but it doesn't matter cause they have Josh Beckett, a stud if there ever was one.
Todd, "They will tell us it was the prospects they did not want to give up, but the real reason is they do not want to pay Santana."
I would add to that the Mets will claim Twins still wanted Reyes.
Either way, get ready for some excuses.
Still hoping for the best, but expecting the worse.
scoopcoop, I can tell you are a die hard Mets fan like me that knows what is going on. You know the way it is with this organization. After the 2000 World Series they no longer needed A-Rod. According to them it was not the money, but A-Rod was a 24 and 1 player. Than it was Guerrero who had a "bad back" so they could not sign him. Now with Santana it will either be they can't give up the prospects or Minnesota asked for Reyes. Every real Mets fan knows the reason. It is the money !! It always is with this team. It is always about the money, even though they always have another excuse why they never get a big money player. Tell us the truth Mets, it is the money that is holding up the deal.
John, I always look forward to reading your site and you do make a good point from one perspective. Of course the other is that the Mets have major holes right now. The starting rotation is not top notch. No ace, for starters (no pun intended). Basically, it's Maine, Perez and Pedro, as long as his toe can hold out (remember, that toe did not and we've been told cannot be surgically repaired). El Duque has his initials wrong – He is DL not El D, so that'a a big worry. Sure, we could plug along with those great front 3 as long as we can, hope El Duque performs well and stays healthy at his age (although he hasn't shown he can) and then theoretically betweeen all of the young talent we have, at this poínt, you would think one of them could plug the 5 hole. Isn't this the third offseason we've been hoping that Humber or Pelfrey (and last year Vargas, too – this year insert Mulvey's name instead) can make an impact? The bullpen is trouble, too. I don't trust Show and only half trust Heilman. Joe Smith was nice for awhile. Feliciano and Wagner are dependable, but that's it. If Padilla and Sanchez come back to form, we could be alright, but if I'm the GM, I would have made a move already to make sure we're OK. LF, RF, 2B, 1B and C are all in decent shape, but do have the potential to either be great or terrible. Who's backing up Delgado now – I forget. We do have a lot of young kids that would be interesting to see if they can develop and contribute, so that would be the upside to not acquiring Santana, but we DO need him badly, especially since aces don't grow on trees and the Mets have only had ONE longterm true ace in their history – Seaver!
Cver, you sort of present an arguement I like to make (actually, I think you made both sides of it!)
That is, If you think the team is strong overall, and just needs that one SP to make them the Patriots, and are willing to go with very little of a depth safety net, then unloading the farm for Santana is logical.
But, if they have holes all over the place that need to be filled, unloading the farm for 1 guy is going to be counter productive (that is, you might end up getting worse!)
Some posters basically have the Mets as lucky to be .500, 3rd place at best, also rans as currently constructed. But, add Santana, and they are suddenly odds on favorites to be in the WS.
Obviously, Santana will be an upgrade over whichever other starting pitcher(s) make the 34 or so starts he would be making. But, is it enough of a difference to take them deep into the playoffs, if they aren't good enough to make it there without him (and yes, if they get there without him, they can win some series').
I think John's point boils down to, what is the net improvement Santana will give you (wins over displaced #5 SP – loses from not having the prospects they have to trade). This year, and over the next few years.
IMO, that is why it isn't a no-brainer to ship out the top 5 prospects in the system for the guy.
Now, if he was a FA and it was only $$, then yeah, go over the top to get him! Even though that can still have downstream impact if it cuses a budget crunch, but I don't think it will really be a problem.
I would love to see him on the Mets, but it is a huge investment.
One more thing. If the Mets were overloaded with top end prospects (like Ariz. seemed to be), then I would be more in favor of overpaying to get Johan. That would mean they would still have enough minor league talent to serve as call up depth or trade bait.
So, trade up to the amount that still leaves enough in reserve to run the team.
Kind of like the difference Bill Gates buying a new Ferrari on a whim, and me doing it (since I would have to sell the house to do it, and he has plenty of excess cash!)
Stick, all good points. I just think that first of all, Perez might possibly not be on the team after 09, so as long as Santana is healthy and produces at least what he normally does, this innoculates us a bit from losing him and face it, wouldn't we rather invest 20 million a year now for Santana than 12 million or more for Perez? Next is what seems to be the situation which points to "we're not gonna get a guy like this any other way". These guys don't grow on trees. We can't magically expect one of the pitchers we have been proposing to be traded (Mulvey, Guerra or Humber – or even Pelfrey for that matter) to become sooner rather than later a Johann Santana, if ever. The new trend is for the teams that have these guys to either re-sign them at a hometown discount or trade them. This is our chance to get the absolute best one in baseball in a trade. Sabbatia probably won't become a free agent. Zambrano, Oswalt, and Peavy are committed for multi-years. Webb and other young studs are not gonna be available for awhile, if ever. This is the brass ring for us, unless the Mets don't want to have a true ace lead us the next 5 years, because there probably won't be any available, except if we grow one ourselves or trade for a young guy who develops under our tutelage. We do have other holes, but these prospects won't necessarily fill them. They could help or be superstars though – you never know. Free agent aces might be a thing of the past, so if we want one, a real one ever again, the only options might be by developing one or trading the farm for one.
stick, How could any Met fan even worry at all about trading minor leaguers ? Were you here for the Alex Escobars and Alex Ochoas of the world ? Do me a favor, other than Wright and Reyes name the top players the Mets farm system has produced for the past 20 years. Since the boom of guys like Gooden, Darling, Strawberry, Dykstra, etc. in the mid to late 80's this farm system has produced nothing but stiffs other than Wright and Reyes. Don't be afraid to trade prospects for the best pitcher in baseball, most Met prospects are all talk and hype and do nothing in the majors, anyway.
Hi Todd. I'm not sure if that was a rhetorical question, but you are right and it could be a fun place to take the discussion. I can remember off the top of my head one in 20 years – Isringhausen, but I'm guessing there must have been at least one or two more, if anybody wants to chime in.
Couple of pionts for an interesting discussion.
Let's see, there is Bar, Kazmir, Izzy… And I am sure plenty others I can't recall (Hey, I can barely remember last week!)
But even if it is true, it is dangerous to assume the all the prospects they have now will stink. Plenty of stars come out of the minors every year, and the current Mets crop has to be evaluated on their own merits, not tarnished by the best.
Remember, there was a different regime in place for much of the last 20 years. Maybe this one knows how to find talent?
And no, because Ochoa flamed out I won't automatically assume the F Mart will bomb. And Escobar I think could have been very good if he hadn't gotten hurt.
Another thing about aces. Lost of the guys that are aces now either exceeded expectations (Webb say), or were traded when they were young (or not so young). Heck, Johan was a rule 5 guy, and traded after that! Randy Johnson certainly bounced around. Clemens? CHris Carpenter?
Maybe the rules are different today about pitchers, but quite likely, guys moving as minor leaguers will still end up being studs. Haren was traded to the As before he went to the D backs.
On the Mets, Maine could be a top guy for years to come. Perez, if he gets his head together and clicks, could put up a few years of Cy Young quality work (he is only about 26).
Will it happen? WHo knows, but it could. Just like Deolis G. could be the Twins "ace" in 3-4 years. Or maybe he won't ever make the majors. I don't know.
But the thing with prospects is, as long as other teams think they might be great, they have value to trade to fill other holes. And once they are gone, they are gone!
Using these prospects as insurance is a losing strategy. These prospects are all outfielders and starting pitchers. There is not one infielder in the Met system or Catcher who is considered a top close to the bigs propsect. And since the two key offensive weapons on this team play infield this system has NOTHING to even help a little if injury strikes. So with or without these kids we have no depth. So they add nothing to the system in an emergency.
And what does an ace do for a team.
1. It replaces a 5th starter, not a second so you go from maybe 7-8 wins to 17-18 wins a year.
2. Your 5th starter gives you 5 innings if you are lucky while your ace gives you 7 conservatively so you save 65-70 innings from your pen, innings that bums like Sele and Schoeneweis wouldn't be needed. Innings that guys like Heilemann wouldn't have to waste too early in a game like was necessary last year.
3. The innings you get from an ace are quality innings vice the mediocre innings you get from your 5th starter. So not only is your pen saved in a game it is also saved from needing to be warmed up over and over every time the 5th man is in trouble.
And what about the future?
Which of these prospects is going to play 1B?
Which is going to play Catcher?
You have a LFer, I'll give you that.
Which is going to replace Wagner?
Which is going to Catch?
Which will Omar allow to replace El Duque, Pedro and maybe OP in 2009?
So since we all know that the answer is none of them except for LF, why are you saving them?
The worse part about all of this talk about prospects is I believed Omar when he said he would improve the farm.
It hasn't happened.
Why? Either b/c he doesn't know how to do it.
Or b/c the Wilpons don't want to spend $ on draft picks.
Or both.
Let's be honest…we need this guy and we need him now! i would trade all the guys mentioned and even more to get santana. The prospects being mentioned are not going to amount to anything and if we can steal Johan for those 5 prospects…we should do it now. I am also wondering why we havent signed Bartolo yet for a low risk one year deal. Spring training is a month away and it is time to do something. Come on Omar
Scoop: How can you expect Omar to be really concerned about the farm when he always finds a has been or a never was to play instead of a rookie?
Prospects = PROSPECTS
Ace = ACE!
Looking at our starting rotation(2 old guys + 1 wild guy + Maine), why is it so hard to understand? Does anyone want to bet on any of our pitching prospects become Johan? SURE! we don't know! But Johan is a SURE THING!!!
WE NEED HIM!!!!!
jason,
Colon has been rumored to have arm trouble in winter ball. I wouldn't touch him.
slop,
Except for Pelrey and maybe Humber the others are way off from being ready for MLB.
But I do agree that they generally don't give the youngin's much of a chance.
So we are saying here is the Mets have produced maybe 4 or 5 top players from their farm system in the past two decades. I agree with that, so I say let's take the chance and trade 4 or 5 prospects to Minnesota for Santana. It is a worthwhile gamble. Even if one or two of the prospects pan out we still get the best pitcher in baseball, and the Mets are built to win now.
I am all for the trade for Santana except FMart who is supposed to be our OF of the future. I would seriously consider trading him to get the ACE we need.
Also we should consider giving up Pelf ( who went through the fire last year, Gotay or any other young guy with experience ).
As someone above said – and as I said previously, we have 2 old guys , the wild thing and maine. Santana could head up our rotation and help save the pen. It is all a question of cost. At the end of the day if I were GM I guess I would pay the piper.
You would take a big risk with injuries and all, but he is available and we need him. We do not have anything in the minors that even smells like him.
Santana is not the solution to the problems
I was watching sny tonight. They made some interesting points. One of which is that when he was drafted Pelfrey was considered one of the best pitchers in the draft ( spoken by the person who drafted him ).
Pretty much everyone on the panel was saying the Mets need Santana and odds are the Mets are the favorite to land him.
They made the usual arguments of trading half the team, what is the value of prospects and the trading of Milledge. Oh yeah. they all picked philly to win this year.
I think that the Twins were likely told by Santana's agent exactly where he would consider going and what exactly he is looking for in terms of years and dollars. Santana leverages the Twins and they leverage the prospective teams to see who will panic first in this game of chicken. No matter what deal is done or not done, there will be no clear cut winner as far as the fans of the various involved parties are concerned. Santana will be the ultimate winner, in his financial statement. There are no sure things, not even Santana, that is why it is called a game. I cannot wait for the game to start being played within the lines, so we can all have something to focus on besides the games played outside the lines.