I’ve gotten several posts about the Mets not having much of a farm system. There’s no real argument to refute that.
However, he’s a thought. The Mets have five prospects who could be playing this year or next: Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Fernando Martinez and Carlos Gomez.
If the issue is building the farm system, why not keep this core and let it develop? You will always be years behind if you throw young talent to fill every hole.
Sometimes, the best move is no move, especially when you have a team that can be good enough to complete for the playoffs as is … and with the luxury of a wild-card.
35 Comments
Hire people who know how to build and develop one would be a good start!!!!!
The issue with young talent is that if you’re going to move them, you move them when they are at their maximum value and get back as much as you can. Obviously we missed the boat with Kazmir who could have easily netted us Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder if we had waited until the offseason instead of foolishly trading him for Victor Zambrano mid-season. And clearly we missed the boat again with Milledge who could have been the centerpiece of a mega-deal last year or the year before.
It looks like Pelfrey & Humber have also lost a lot of value so at this point unless they can be part of a package to get someone real good we might as well hold onto them and see if they can become contributors, if not in the rotation then in the bullpen.
With Gomez & Martinez, their value is only just beginning to build. Again, if we can’t package them with some other guys for someone real good, we might as well hold onto them and let their value continue to build. Perhaps they can net us a superstar sometime later on.
Maybe it’s because I don’t think that Pelfrey, Humber, or Gomez are going to amount to anything. The one guy who I thought had a chance was Milledge, but you know how that went. If the Mets can trade Mulvey/Heilman/Gomez/ and either Humber or Pelfrey for Bedard, I make that trade in a NY minute.
And who knows if this team even can compete for a wild card anyway next year? With a #1 starter, they can.
The problem with that line of thinking is, if no teams are that interested in trading good players for a package that includes the likes of humber and pelfrey, what would make us think that either of those guys is going to pan out and help the team. It’s that kind of lack of certainty that causes the problem, especially when you’ve lost Tom Glavine and failed the previous season with “a team that can be good enough to complete for the playoffs as is”. Actually a “leave well enough alone” attitude like that reminds me a lot of the offseason following the 2000 World Series, where the Mets essentially said “we made it to the WS – a few minor tweaks should be good enough”. We all know how well that worked out. ( to clarify – our big moves that offseason were bringing in appier and derek bell…kinda like bringing in Silva and Church?)
I’m reading you guys into thinking you’d rather have a shot at being competitive now rather than taking a couple of down years to build up the farm system.-JD
JD: I think what you are reading is that some of us fans don’t think much of what is actually “in” the farm system right now.
My thinking is that we can win now and build for the future… We have 2 first round picks in 2008 as well as a Sandwich pick for losing Tom Glavine… That’s a start… We will most likely get some very talented players who are repreresented by Scott Boras who other teams won’t touch…
At the same time, we can deal some of our prospects for some amr, either starter or bullpen… I woul be pleased if can retain Fernando Martinez and Deolis Guerra at this point.
We have been hearing about the Mets building up their farm system for 25 years. It never happens. Reyes and Wright are the only two players they have produced in two decades. The scouts stink. I thought Omar was a real development guy and he would build the farm system, especially with an infusion of Latin players, but he has been here for three years, and the farm system still stinks.
I have given up on building the farm system.
I think that if Omar doesn’t trade the youth away this winter, then it will benefit the Mets in 2009, but not in 2008. It all depends on what his plans are for next year. I think as far as his job security goes, he should be thinking about 2008.
John-
Ultimately when it comes to prospects, the question is are you willing to trade potential for a known quantity. It’s a risk anytime you make a deal. However, in baseball moreso than other sports, prospects, no matter how talented, fail more than they succeed. And on top of that, productive players can come from the end of the draft—think Piazza. So ultimately, it really depends on the resources a team has, and what kind of position they are in.
Secondly, is it possible to recap Omar’s activity in International Free Agency? He has used this market to bring in young impact talent, and its something we don’t really hear about. I think that most fans don’t understand his strategy with the young players-
using the MLB draft for projectable guys who can help out in the near term, and though international free agency, bringing in guys at a much younger age -16and for significantly less dollars. I know he has been active each year as the Mets GM, nabbing Fernando and Guerra in his first year, and those guys are still under 20! He also brought in Fransisco Pena this way. I know he also signed some kid from the Netherlands a few months ago. That is also how he originally signed Reyes, in 1999 (IIRC)...It took until 2002 for the baseball world to notice him, and until June(?) ‘03 for him to make it….Patience!!!Derek Bell was acquired in the Hampton deal before the 2000 season, not after
John,
I think you may be right. Everybody says we need an ace. I thought Pedro showed us he can still be that when he came back in record time from his surgery. Next year he will be stronger and on the last year of his contract. I expect a monster year from him. It would be great to have a Santana, Bedard or Haren, but not for our 4 top prospects. As has been pointed out, mostly because of injuries, Humber, Gomez and Fmart all had thier progess stalled last year. I especially Dont want to see Pelfry traded. He was effective on his second go round last year, and he has something that cant be taught, a 95 mph fastball with sink.
With all the despair over Kazmir, what would it be like if 3 of these guys go on to be All-Stars in the future, and dont forget, pitchers are the most serious injury risks, so then imagine we give up the farm and the pitcher we get in return hurts his arm.
People believe too much of what they read in the papers, and are way too impatient and unrealistic when it comes to prospects. Contrary to popular belief, most players do not come up in their early 20s and produce like Wright, Reyes, and Verlander. For most, they come up around 23/24/25 and that’s when they’re ready to produce. Some, like Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, blossom a smidge later, and other, like Jason Bay and Jeff Kent, blossom even later.
For pitchers, the learning curve is steeper still. These Aces we’re clamoring for: Dan Haren, Erik Bedard, and Johan Santana, let’s take a closer look, shall we:
Haren: Came up at 22 with St. Louis, had his first good year at 24 with Oakland, declared an ace at 26.
Bedard: Came up for a cup of coffee at 23, had TJ surgery when 24, showed very positive signs of progression at 26/27, now an ace after his age 28 season.
Santana: Rule 5 pick who started out in the BULLPEN as a 21 year old. Had a nice year as a 24 year old before breaking out big time as a 25 year old. The rest, as they say, is history.
For some other comparisons:
Randy Johnson: Came up at 24 with the Expos, traded the next year to Seattle. Had his first big year at age 26.
Brandon Webb: Didn’t reach the bigs until age 24. Has been really good since he came up, but put together an excellent year last season at age 28.
Nolan Ryan: Came up at 19 and was mostly a 5th starter bullpen pitcher at first. Traded to California for his age 25 season where he broke out big time. Dominated for the next 20 years.
John Maine: Came up at 24, traded to Mets for his age 25 season, showed flashes, put in a solid campaign at 26.
As for hitters, these guys last year like Hunter Pence and Ryan Braun were 24 and 23 respectively, in their first full season as big leaguers. Fernando Martinez is 19 and in AA. By contrast, Carlos Lee was 22 when in AA. Carlos Gomez was 21 last year and he was in AAA/MLB.
So my point… let’s hold onto guys like Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey, Martinez, and Gomez. Especially Pelfrey, Humber, and Martinez. Pelfrey still has a great fastball and he’s the kind of pitcher you don’t want to give up on too soon. Humber is in his second year back from TJ surgery, which is usually the big bounce back year, not the first year. And as stated, Martinez is 19 and in AA and had a decent year with a hurt hand. Mulvey has made nothing but progress and Gomez has shown an ability to adapt and improve as well.
Don’t be so quick to ship these guys out when they may just turn out to be what we’ve been looking for all along. It make take a year or two, but be patient. This is how great franchises are run. Every single pitcher we’re after didn’t develop until 24/25… patience is a virtue.
Todd,
Wright, Reyes, Heilman, Flores, Milledge, Isringhausen, Terrence Long, Ty Wigginton, Kazmir, Mike Jacobs, Heath Bell, Matt Lindstrom, Brian Bannister, Joe Smith, etc…
Sure, not a lot of “stars” in there besides Wright, Reyes, and Kazmir, but they are all useful complementary players. People overlook those kind of guys too much, but they’re essential to winning teams. Look at the Red Sox. They produced Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ellsbury. Those guys get more pub than they probably should, and are good players no doubt, but they’re still role players. That’s what this team needs, some good young solid major leaguers. Instead, they fill out the team with these older vets when they could have done it with some youth they had in the system.
Just because a guy isn’t an AS or future HoFer doesn’t mean they’re useless players.
Keith,
now that I read your blog about how it takes time for prospects to mature and get to there potential, I think Omar made a mistake in trading Milledge for a 31 year old catcher who is good defensively but can’t hit and a outfielder on a good team that is a number 4 outfielder.
The downfall of the Mets will always be they are a New York team. They will always have the “win now” pressure. true fans of baseball know there will be some lean years when the restocking of the minors takes place. True fans of baseball also know that it takes keen management to be able to keep a farm system strong to where it will continue to produce for you year in and year out.
The Mets have strokes against them in both categories. ;Despite the mantra Mets fans have of hating the Yankees, you’ve got to give props to Gene Michael. He and his staff have most always kept their minors stocked with enough talent that they can bring up some home grown player when they need them, have the money to buy what they can’t bring up or have the chips available to trade for what they need.
Sam in Portland,
If that is the case than what about the Yankees. The last time i checked they reside in new York.
Sam in Portland,
The difference between the Mets and yankees is that the Yankees spend money to bring in top prospects and major leaguers where the Met’s are to cheap (wilpons).
Let’s give Minaya some time here. His philosophy has obviously been to acquire fast moving college kids through the draft while getting the more talented players from the international scene. Joe Smith helped last year and I expect Pelfrey, Mulvey, and Humber to contribute more next season.
The international academies should start producing some more talent now that Minaya has had 3 years to build them up. Look at FMart, we signed him and Guerra at 16 years old… now they’re both 19 and starting to blossom as nice prospects.
This blog post applies to Milledge too. And Keith so does your comment. 22yrs old and already a respectable major leaguer.
keith,
i agree that role-players are important, but look at the team youre using as an example – the Red Sox: they traded a big package of prospects to get Beckett. Anabel Sanchez has had some success and Hanley Ramirez is already a top SS in the league, but didn’t the Sox get what they were hoping from Beckett too? Trades can be good for both sides, and trading bright young prospects for an ace can lead to success. I know you were just responding to Todd, who was saying our farm system hasnt produced anything of value, but I just feel its important to make this point for alot of the people who are against trading a big package for an ace just because of the ridiculous packages those teams are asking for.
Leetch, Definitely, you’re right. But the Sox’ system is also incredibly deep. They lost Hanley and Sanchez, but they had Lester, Bucholz, Ellsbury, Lowrie and an army of prospects behind them as well.
Not to say we shouldn’t put out a nice package, but people also need to remember that Beckett was less established than all of these guys being discussed. Despite his WS exploits, he was still a .500 pitcher with blister issues when the Sox got him.
Also, Hanley was only a prospect who some people felt would never develop power. Obviously they were wrong, but trading him didn’t hurt the Sox because he wasn’t part of their core, or even their team yet. This leads to my point about trading Reyes, something that shouldn’t even be considered. Reyes, along with Wright and Beltran, are our franchise guys. So trading Reyes is more comparable to the Sox trading Papi, not Hanley. I’m just discussing their worth to their respective teams.
State of the Mets
Let’s recap.
I think many people like myself are conflicted. You want the team to build from within because if you have a good strategy and an eye for talent this is a way to build a successful franchise for the long term.
At the same time this team is built to win now and has some warts that can be fixed by importing one or two key talented pieces.
This team has a weak but not non existent farm system. We all realize that to take the next step we need to upgrade the pitching, specifically starting pitching.
We apparently do not have the goods to trade for what we need without emptying the cupboard.
What to do?
If we wait for our guys to develop what we have will get moldy on the shelf and we may not have the chance we have now.
If we go for it now and miss it will be years before we can be good again.
I remember ( both recently and years ago ) we held onto our young guys. At one time we had the 3 amigos who would be the cornerstone of this franchise. In one year they all had career threatening injuries and after several years we gave them away. Only one player ( Isringhausen ) ever made anything of himself many years later.
Recently we would not trade LM, CarGo, Pelfrey, Humber, FMart. Now apparently we may ( or have ).
Personally I think we should go for it and trade 3 or 4 to get a stud because this team is built to win now. If it doesn’t work out we are proverbally screwed for years. If we hold onto these guys to mature our GM and manager will be out the door because we have tasted the good life and will blame them when we fall short.
Dave
“Personally I think we should go for it and trade 3 or 4 to get a stud because this team is built to win now. If it doesn’t work out we are proverbally screwed for years. If we hold onto these guys to mature our GM and manager will be out the door because we have tasted the good life and will blame them when we fall short.”
I personally feel this is an awful way to run a franchise. Unless you win a WS every few years like the Marlins, then you’re just running in circles. Personally, I’d much rather be the Braves than the Marlins. Sure, the Marlins have one more WS win, but the Braves are in it almost every year. As a fan, you really can’t ask for much more than that.
Stuff I’ve said elsewhere on this very topic:
I’m far more bummed about the distressing state of the Mets’ farm system than about any trades. Omar has been around long enough now for there to be something to show on the farm, but all we have, with very few exceptions, are mediocre propects and lots of question marks. We can’t compete for Santana, and it’s difficult to compete for any other top quality player because we don’t have the quality or the depth in the farm system to do it.
When I look at the strength of the Yankee farm system, both in quality and depth  and remember that this is a team that until a couple of years ago was routinely trading away its best prospects  it makes me feel sick. There’s no reason why the Yanks, Red Sox, Tigers, Dodgers, As and D-Backs should have great farm systems, while ours sucks. That’s the heart of the problem, far more than any particular trade Omar may or may not make. And it makes each and every trade that much more critical, because we don’t have the luxury of extra pieces, if one or more of our very limited chips gets traded badly (cf last offseason).
It’s understandable that lower payroll teams can’t manage to put together a superior farm system, but for the Mets to chronically suffer that problem is a disgrace, and, as I was saying, imo far stronger grounds to fire Minaya somewhere down the road than making a bad trade here or there. The only place where Minaya has supposedly done well is in the international market, and those kids are so young, they have to be serious question marks  and we paid a great deal for them. Other teams somehow manage to come up with stars through the baseball draft, but we seem to always come up empty.
The most frustrating thing is that we can’t even say, after 3?4? years of Minaya that there’s a single kid down on the farm anywhere that’s about a year or so away that you can describe as a “can’t miss�.
I think that’s part of the huge upset over Milledge, in point of fact. He was about the closest we had to a potentially high end prospect after Pelf and Humber seriously disappointed last year, and now he’s gone. Gomez still has too many questions, as does every other prospect the Mets have.
And in response to Keith, both about the draft and about giving kids time:
This focus on the international at the expense of domestic is precisely what’s wrong with the way Minaya does things. First of all, you can’t get as good talent internationally. You’re drafting sixteen year olds, and it’s too hard to project what they may or may not become. They’re also too many years away. And there aren’t enough of them that are projectable, given the uncertainties. One or two a year, tops. That’s no way to build a farm system. It’s a good idea to incorporate an international element into your program, but it can’t be the be all and end all. Omar signed F-Mart and Guerra three years ago now, right? We still don’t know if either of them is going to turn out to be a solid prospect, let alone a great one. They have high upsides, but there are plenty of questions about both. In the meantime, we don’t know if we have one single prospect from the Minaya years that will turn into a solid-great ML baseball player. NOT. ONE.
By contrast, the Yanks, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. are all perceived as having what are projected as multiple can’t miss prospects. And as for the argument that Minaya hasn’t had enough time to revamp the system: Joba Chamberlain was drafted in 2006. Hughes in 2004. Ian Kennedy? 2006. Jacoby Ellersby? 2005. Clay Bucholz? 2005.
This past year, something like 8 out of the first 10 players Omar drafted were relief pitchers in college. Sure—way to draft that great ace for us. NOT.
Omar knows this is his make or break year. He is ready to empty the farm for ace, believe me. I seriously doubt we have enough to get Santana, Haren or Bedard. We may have enough to get Blanton, who I like, but not at the price he is going to cost. Better to cross our fingers and hope Pedro finds his old form and hope Pelfry or Humber can contribute. If we trade our top 3 or 4 prospects, I am sure we will be left with the worst minor league system in MLB.
Laurie: on the draft the Mets have not had a 1st round pick in the last 2 drafts. This is the flip side of signing Wagner & Alou. The Mets 2004 1st round pick was Humber who most scouts said was more ready for the majors than Hughes. I am sure if the Mets knew he would need TJ surgery they would not have drafted him. In 2005 they drafted Pelfrey more highly rated than Bucholtz. Please do not drink the Kool-Aide on Kennedy or Ellersby they have proved nothing yet.
When Pelfrey was drafted, he was a can’t miss. As was Humber. Humber got hurt and Pelfrey was pushed through the system too fast IMO. Hughes was allowed to develop at his own rate. Chamberlain, the Yanks got lucky on… he wasn’t even invited to Spring Training last year; dude came out of nowhere.. Don’t call Kennedy a can’t miss, he projects to about a #3, maybe a #2. Ellsbury is a nice player, but he’s not going to become Carlos Beltran. Ellsbury projects to be a Curtis Granderson type players at best IMO.
Another thing to remember, Yankees pitchers aside, everyone else’s prospects are all either older than the Mets are the product of media hype. The Mets push their prospects, for better or worse, so their numbers are generally going to be worse than their counterparts.
Gomez is only 21. Martinez is only 19. You need to be patient with these kids and let them develop. Pelfrey is still only 24.
As for the International scene, you have to start it up sometime. Sure, getting it off the ground takes a few years, Martinez and Guerra are still 19 and its been 3 year since we got them, but once they have have entrenched themselves in the Caribbean you’ll start seeing a steady stream of players coming up through the baseball academies. These things don’t just happen overnight… Rome wasn’t built in a day, and all that. Once Martinez and Guerra hit the bigs you’ll see there will be some prospects coming up right behind them.
From all the articles I’ve read, the Mets are weak at the top of their farm system in terms of blue chip talent, but they are deep at the back end. This is what I am talking about. This year and next you’ll start to see more and more talent emerging from the lower ends of the system and the academies.
2006 made everyone crazy. The Mets jumped way ahead of schedule and now that everyone has a taste of Champagne, they don’t want to go back to drinking Miller High Life. The step back last year was almost expected.
Anyway… everyone wants instant gratification, and that can be attributed as much to the world we live in today as to anything else. Be patient Mets fans. 2008 is not the last MLB season to ever be played. Have some faith in Omar and the organization. I want to be able to watch a winner at CitiField for years and years to come.
My basic point from my ranting is this. We build all these kids up, rush them to the bigs, and when they’re not instant all stars we rip them apart. Not the way to develop talent.
If we trade Pelfrey and Humber they will become another team’s Ollie Perez or John Maine. Like I said, most of the pitchers we are seeking didn’t break out until age 25+. Both Pelfrey and Humber are younger than that. This isn’t like E-Z Mac… you need to melt the cheese, cook the noodles, and then mix everything together until it’s just right.
Whether you trade or keep is not the big issue
With every team making globs of $ and the lux tax, they can hold onto their good young players. Even the small mrkt teams can hold onto some.
Or they can trade them to some team that can pay the players and can give the other team back some good players. Hence, you don’t see the FAs the last couple of yrs you saw in the past.
But if you don’t have your own farm, you are screwed b/c you can’t trade for the good players and you don’t have your own and you can’t buy them (FA) anymore (at least not as often).
This is where the Mets stand today. No farm to get players or to trade with and no FAs to buy.
The Mets will never be a consistent winner until they solve this issue.
Might as well hold onto the guys they have.
How much less can Pelfrey, Humber, etc. net than the Scheinders and Church’s of the BB world. How much worse can these guys play than the Scheinders, and Church’s?
keith,
patience? 45 yrs….2 WS winners…21 yrs & counting.
Enough already.
With the money this team has, they should have something more to show for it.
I worry about the farm as well, but Gomez, Pelfrey, and F. Martinez are all listed in the top 35 prospects. That’s not shabby compared to any other ML team. If you do some digging there are quite a few other youngsters who have promise (Owen, Pellot, Corando).
I’m afraid it is going to be hard to get the likes of Haren, Bedard, of Blanton without giving up a great deal. I think the A’s or O’s will want much more than a Pelfrey or Humber. They are going to want a proven prime player as well.
I say keep the youngsters and give them a chance. Pelfrey still needs a chance as he has the stuff to develop into a top quality pitcher. He is frustrating to watch, but when he learns to throw strikes consistently he will be a stud. Humber pitched well at times last year in NOZ. Also, Heilman is always an option in the rotation. Still can’t figure this one out because he wants it. If Sanchez and Smith become legitimate guys out of the pen then Heilman may have to become a starter or be traded.
Will I miss Glavine? YES. Not enough to give up the farm though.
I won’t miss Milledge and I hope to not regret having said that. He did have talent, but reminds me of an Albert Belle in training. The one move I still can’t understand was Bannister. Oh well, I’ll chalk it up as a mistake.
If there is a way to get another decent starter, and then Pelfrey, or Humber start to emerge then the Mets will be in good shape. I’m certainly hoping for it!
If they are going to pull of the trade then I can only hope it is for Roy Oswalt. But that is just wishful thinking.
Lack of patience and hasty FA signings is what has led to this drought.
Minaya is building the franchise the right way.