Comments on: Another thought on Santana

By: stick

stick — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 21:02:07 +0000

I bet if the twins tell them they are prepared to accept another offer (of course implying it is with Boston!), but that they can have him for Hughes + Cano + some smaller part(s), the Yankees will cave in and do it.

If the Twins really aren’t that interested in Cano, they can always redirect him elsewhere.

By: steve

steve — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 20:47:51 +0000

Keith: YES YES and YES. But I’m not sure the Twins would. I think with their trade yesterday, I don’t think Gomez is a need anymore for their team. It also might kill the Yankees if they were figuring they have added value with Melky. (Which puzzles me since I think he is sooooo overrated.) It wouldn’t shock me if the Twins insisted on Cano.

By: stick

stick — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 20:37:01 +0000

The rade market this time of year is pretty much a big game of chicken. That, and enough smoke blowing to shut down JFK from the fog.

anything you real from the media is either pure supposition, or a “leak” planted for a purpose.

Of course a GM is going to downgrade other teams prospects, and feign disinterest in the guys they are hot for.

Not sure why Omar has been so public about wanted to get pitching. Maybe he figured everyone knew it anyway, so it would flush teams out of the woodwork, to make him offers? Of course expecting him to panic and take a stupid deal, but once they are at the table, anything can happen.

As long as he doesn’t do something really stupid (and I know everyone has a different definition of what that is!).

I like the startegy of th epublic dance with Beane, while working behind the scenese with another team, giving them a “last second” chance to steal someone away before Oakland get him.

Do the Giants need a young, speedy CF like gomez? Pittsburgh?

Just get 1 guy along the lines of Snell and the only real move needed is a guy for the 5/6 hole, and that could be a Colon or jennings reclamation type.

If Milledge + goes for a mediocrity like Blanton, then Omar does deserve to be fired. Especially if he follows it up with adding someone like Sanders for RF.

By: Keith

Keith — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 20:31:22 +0000

Steve, That’s the thing. Everyone is rating the other team’s prospects highly, while Omar, and apparently Keith Law, see Pelfrey as nothing to sneeze at. But there are some posters who have railed at our prospects, and it’s just not accurate. We may not have a Bucholz or a Hughes, but I think Milledge is better than Ellsbury or Cabrera. And no one has a prospect like FMart.

So should Minaya over pay by offering Pelfrey, Gomez, and Mulvey for Santana?

I would do this deal, and I think the Twins would too. But they just need to see if other teams would offer more.

By: steve

steve — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 20:23:49 +0000

Keith: It’s not that they are garbage. It’s just other teams have better prospects to offer. Just comparing to the Yankees, neither Pelfrey or Humber can compare to Hughes right now. And since you have to assume that a team that trades their #1 will need what they think is a “stud” pitcher in return, the Mets don’t have that to give.

By: steve

steve — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 20:21:08 +0000

Ski: Ever think that the window of opportunity closed? That is the gut feeling that I get with this team. Even last year when they were in the lead, I never got the feeling last year that this team would have been a true contender if they had made the playoffs anyway…their record in the second half of the season was 39 & 35 and as we all know were struggling mighty down the stretch. Even though I am glad he is gone, you do need to replace Glavine with someone that can at least duplicate what he did (until the last 3 outings of last year of course.) Like I said earlier, I’ll shut up until we see what Omar ends up doing. I just think it’s going to be a bitter disappointment.

By: Ski Bolton

Ski Bolton — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 20:19:42 +0000

Omar has made it more than obvious that he wants to get a front end starter at all costs. Leaking to the media that the mets prospects aren’t matching up with other teams is probably trying to get Omar to up his offer. His intrest in a front end guy has to make opposing GM’s think he will. I have to think that the offers the team has out there are quite competitve, or there wouldn’t be as much buzz leaked about these guys. If the mets didn’t have the right guys to get the deal done in some combo, There just wouldn’t be this much buzz.

By: Keith

Keith — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 20:13:40 +0000

To all you Mets fans who are losing your mind over our prospects being garbage. From Keith Law’s chat (and perhaps a reason why Omar is so quick to NOT trade these guys):

“Ridiculous. I’ve seen that mentioned in some NY papers, and it’s absurd. Carlos Gomez is very highly-rated within the game. Fernando Martinez (who seems to be their one untouchable) is still one of the top 10-12 prospects in the game. Pelfrey hasn’t even turned 24 yet, and he’s still mid-90s with plus sink. I have no idea why it’s fashionable to bash the Mets’ young players, but they have plenty of assets to go get another starter. Whether they choose to part with them or not is the question. ”

By: stick

stick — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 20:12:32 +0000

Ski: I agree that they won 88 games with just about everything that could go wrong going on, and they still had to have a terrible 2 weeks to finish 1 game out (plus if Phillie hadn’t played over their heads, it still wouldn’t have mattered!~)

Even without a big splash, this team could easily win 90 games, and still have a solid talent base of young guys to build on.

And if the prospects are so down now, why not give them a chance to show some improvement? Why trade when their value is down?

By: stick

stick — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 20:09:08 +0000

I will be really bummed if LM gets traded. 20/80 is probably conservative if he plays everyday, and doesn’t hit 8th.

By: Ski Bolton

Ski Bolton — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 20:04:24 +0000

Steve, the mets didn’t have any of the 5 things you mentioned happen last year and missed the playoffs by 1 game. To think all 5 need to happen to have a shot is stupid. For example, If pedro is healthy and good, and milledge develops into a stud, will we really need any more from alou this year than last to be a better team? Plenty of things didn’t work out this year for the Mets, but that happens to every team every year. That’s why they play every day. Everything seemed to break right 2 years ago, just about everything went wrong last year. Why don’t you relax and let the off season play out before you have a break down.

By: stick

stick — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 20:03:20 +0000

I forgot that in ‘06 the Cards had an Ace. Carpenter right? The dude the Mets beat up on?

Or was it Suppan, the solid middle rotation guy that carried the team?

An Ace is nice, but only if the rest of the team is still good enough to win. And 5 John Maines will win you a lot more games than 1 Santana + 4 guys like Silva/Livan.

By: Keith

Keith — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 20:01:30 +0000

Hey Stick, Fan Graphs has the Bill James projections for ‘08. Stings is projected to hit 18 dingers and drive in over 80… sign me up for that.

By: stick

stick — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 19:59:37 +0000

Mel – Yeah, but on the flip side, Milledge had to bat 8th, ahead of a pitcher, and Young didn’t. He also had to sit on the bench so he never had a chance to get into a “nice little rythym”, and missed a block of time.

I would bet that if he played everyday his numbers would be just as good, overall, even if he had bad days against a few studs. Especially if they stuck him in the 2 hole and left him there.

With all that, he still had an OPS 10% higher than young. I do admit I don’t know where young hit in the lineup, but it is less important in the AL w/o the pitcher.

By: Keith

Keith — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 19:59:20 +0000

You all need to look up the definition of patience.

Milledge is only going to be 23. Pelfrey 24. I think Humber 24/25, but he lost a year to TJ surgery, and the second year is usually the big bounce back season.

Wright and Reyes are the exception, not the rule when it comes to young players. It’s rare for a player to come up and excel from the get go. And let’s be honest, Reyes wasn’t exactly an All Star at first either.

Everyone is so quick to downgrade Fernando Martinez but they forget he is 18 years old and in AA. Most kids are still in high school!

By: Keith

Keith — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 19:55:15 +0000

I would rather have a solid all around team than have an Ace and a team with holes. The Braves had two aces and finished third. Unloading all of your prospects is how you end up with part timers in full time roles.

As for Castro and Gotay, my point wasn’t that they should necessarily play everyday, but that they are important to a team’s success and are often overlooked by fans and the media.

But to be honest, why couldn’t Castro and Gotay start? Look around the league. The catching position stinks. Henry Blanco is the Cubs starter. Castro, if proven to hold up over an entire season, is certainly talented enough to be better than half the catchers in the league. And Gotay is only 24 years old. Utley didn’t blossom until 26. Kent was a late bloomer as well. Let’s not be so quick to label Gotay a bench player. He has a nice stroke and quick hands at the plate. If he gets his D together he could be a solid everyday 2B.

By: steve

steve — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 19:54:02 +0000

I should stop reading the papers and the blogs. It’s getting depressing to be a Met fan. If Omar doesn’t get a #1 this year, the Mets will have to have everything break right next year to get into the playoffs. This means:

1. A healthy and excellent Pedro Martinez for the full year
2. A total recovery and return to pre injury form for Duaner Sanchez
3. A much healthier year from Moises Alou
4. Pelfrey/Humber finally acheiving their prowess
5. Milledge developing into the player we thought we had which was another top hitter in the mold of D.Wright and Jose.

Damn, no wonder i’m depressed about this team!

By: mel

mel — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 19:53:11 +0000

Stick’s statistics are ridiculous. Milz played part time, and Young played every day. Milz was protected from guys Willie thought he’d be overmatched against. Young got no luxury to rest against star pitchers.

By: Ski Bolton

Ski Bolton — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 19:52:56 +0000

Omar didn’t kill the pen last year…willie did. Why was sele taking up a spot in the pen if he wasn’t being used? We all know he wasn’t very good, and that’s why he wasn’t used, but why keep him around then. When starters averaged 7 inning plus, there was a need for a mop up man. The mets don’t need that now. Bring in anybody that willie will actually use, and that would knock about 10 innings each off of the rest of the pen. An ace would be great, but I think it would be just as beneficial to not give away roster spots to guys we will never use.

By: Sloppy

Sloppy — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 19:44:12 +0000

Keith: Guys like Castro and Gotay can make a good team a great team. But guys like that also make an average team a below average team because you use them too much. You try to turn a part timer into an regular and you are in deep trouble.