I would think there would be a lot on your minds tonight:
-The message the Mets sent to the Phillies this weekend.
-The state of the Mets’ rotation. Worried now?
-The All-Stars. Did John Maine get jobbed? Were the others deserving?
Much as I love Johnny Maine and believe he deserves a spot, he didn’t get jobbed.
Not when Ben Sheets, John Smoltz, Jake Peavy are picked and Carlos Zambrano, Roy Oswalt and Chris Young still have chances to get picked.
I’m not worried about the rotation, as I’m sure with rest, Oli and Sosa will be fine.
But by July 31, the Mets need upgrades at three spots: Left field, the bullpen and one rotation spot.
Calros Gomez is phenomenal on the field and on the basepaths but doesn’t yet provide enough offense. Even during his hot streak, he was doing it softly, with lots of bunt hits. I don’t even count on Alou coming back this year.
Heilman may lead all relievers in wins, but he gives up too many bombs. Not having Duaner Sanchez as Billy Wagner’s main setup man is excruciatingly painful.
And as well as the rotation has done, no team ever has enough pitching. Even if Pedro successfully comes back, we still need another arm.
And speaking of which…Mike Pelfrey showed only incrimental improvement today. Why didn’t Willie just start Aaron Sele? Pelfrey really should go in a deal for a top-flight established pitcher (Roy Oswalt, Aaron Harang). Pelfrey may eventually get it together – though if he can’t develop an out pitch, forget it – but it looks doubtful it will be in New York.
Does Carlos Zambrano really belong in the final 5 for voting? Maybe I’m missing something, but shouldn’t the last 3 months count for anything? Maybe Andruw Jones belongs there as well then, ha! I find it hard to believe Hudson and Maine wouldnt be ahead of Zambrano this year.
Gil – Pelf needs more time and shouldn’t be up here yet. I think it would be a big mistake to package him in a deal, he is way too young and has too much upside to give up on him after a few rough starts. He did show the ability to bounce back today, which was definitely impressive. As others have mentioned, most young stars don’t excel in their first 10 starts, particularly when they are rushed up before they are ready.
I’m more concerned about the rotation now than I was before the start of the season. Is Ollie going to get examined anytime soon, or are they confident its just normal stiffness? He’s never had back problems before, so its a little alarming…
How about Sosa too? He still feelin like he could make his next start if he wasn’t on the DL? I doubt it, but it looked as bad as any recent hammy pull I remember recently (Chavez, Bannister), and both of those required more than minimal DL stints.
I guess Omar might get a little trigger happy now on the trade front, but assuming the Mets go in house for these upcoming spot starts (crossing fingers that that’s all they are), who will they likely go with? Neither Humber or Vargas have been overwhelming. Brian Lawrence has been okay, but okay enough to justify a 40-man roster move?
SNK: Good points on Pelfrey, but reading his quotes doesn’t suggest much development. Pelfrey now says he was rearing back and throwing today, being a power pitcher instead of the finesse one he said he was at the start of the year. Well, neither approach seems to be getting results.
As a team, the Mets have won only one of the seven games in which he has started. He’s not 0-6 by accident.
Pelfrey has no out pitch, his fastball can be as straight as a string (another reason why Scott Kazmir hasn’t blossomed into the second coming of Lefty Grove) and now he’s openly asking what kind of pitcher he’s supposed to be?
If the right deal is out there, I’d move him in a New York minute. I’d rather use Pelfrey as bait to lure proven pitchers like Roy Oswalt, Aaron Harang or Erik Bedard for the next few years, or a budding outfield star like Alex Rios instead of waiting for him to blossom – which, may never happen. Plus, Pelfrey’s the only talented pitching prospect we have.
Here’s a question: If trading Pelfrey now helps us get a player who can help us get a ring and Pelfrey goes on to excel for another team for the next 10 years and that team doesn’t win a ring, wouldn’t it be worth it to trade him?
I just don’t see Pelfrey as the next Big Unit and trading him wouldn’t be as disastrous as the Mets moving Nolan Ryan in the early ‘70s for a washed-up third-baseman.
Finally, I offer you and everyone else some other “can’t miss” Mets prospects of yore who never really panned out: Bill Pulsipher, Paul Wilson, Jay Payton (two good ML seasons, including his 2000 rookie year), Alex Escobar (injuries reduced him to a career of being a spare OF), Danny Garcia, Craig Brazell, Earl Snyder, Yusmeiro Petit… Alay Soler
Correction: I meant to write “Pelfrey’s NOT the only talented pitching prospect we have.”
Correction: “Pelfrey’s NOT the only talented pitching prospect we have.”
I would rather not trade Pelf for an OF now. We have 3 young ones now. The Carlos who is up, Milledge and Martinez.
All are supposed to be good soon. If all 3 come up/stay up in the next year or two we potentially have a very nice athletic OF.
As for pitching Tom,Pedro and El Duque won’t be here in two years or so.
Of our current staff you can rely on only Maine and Ollie. That leaves 3 spots to fill. Can we do that by trading away one of our 2 ‘sure fire’ pitchers in the minors this year for an OF?
Also as to the point of trade for a ring. Last year yes. This year no. Last year was our year and we couldn’t quite do it. This year we seem to have issues not just in running people out there but in chemistry.
I would wait a bit before trading Humphrey to get the one who gets us over the top unless it is a pitcher like Oswalt/Willis/Zambrano ( with a contract ).
Yes, Maine got jobbed. Hamels does not belong there. Maine has better stats than Hamels in many categories and all the important ones. And he’s been much better than Oswalt and Zambrano, who doesn’t even belong on the final vote list. John, do you know exactly how the final vote list is made? Is it entirely up to Larussa?
Hopefully Maine will have as strong a second half as his first half and be in contention for the Cy Young. That would be phenomenal. But it would be even worse than the all-star snub if he also got improperly robbed of recognition for the Cy Young.
Pelf is chum. Hook him up and let’s catch a bigger fish before he goes overboard again on his next outing. The experiment is over. What could make more sense than bringing up an 0-5 pitcher from AAA to finish off the Mets’ sweep of the Phils? How about sticking your head out of a high speed train window. Surely there has to be another option other than having an extended spring training experiment at the tail end of an important series like this one. Yeah, the Met bats were held in check by Phils pitcher Kendrick, and yes the Mets made miscues and bounced into 3 DP’s in the first 5 innings, but the first real sucker punch was enabled by the now 0-6 Mike Pelfrey. He may have pitched an acceptable game overall, but this isn’t the time for “checking out” minor league talent, now is it? Prolonged experimentation is over and IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d say Pelf had his chances and then some. He still canÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t bring his high hard ones where they belong and as long as he does that, he will succumb in the bigs. And it coulda been worse too. Carlos Gomez made a fantastic diving catch in LF in the 5th inning chasing Utley back to the dugout. Pelf was lucky CarGo made that run-saving play as Victorino was on 1B with none out.
Pelfrey might need more time to develop his secondary pitches and gain consistency but there’s nothing wrong with giving him a few more starts. He pitched well enough yesterday to win. He should have considering how crappy the defense was in one inning. And while being 0-6 is bad, wins is a pretty crappy way to judge a starting pitcher. Or whether to promote someone from the minors to fill in. At any rate, I think his ERA was better than any other starter at New Orleans, so it absolutely made sense to call him up for this start.
Since when were “Danny Garcia, Craig Brazell, Earl Snyder, Yusmeiro PetitÃ¢â‚¬Â¦ Alay Soler” can’t miss? Alay Soler seemed more of a risky experiment than anything. Another Duquette failed move. Petit was someone who piqued curiosity since he excelled in the lower minors without great stuff. But once he got to AA he was exposed. And the others? None of them were first round draft picks considered can’t miss, as best as I can recall.
Gil—I think the better question is whether you believe Pelfrey will ever become as good as the established pitchers rumored in these trades. For example, will Pelfrey ever become as good as Buehrle? If so, then you’re essentially dealing away five years of age (and possible productivity). To me, the only way I don’t make such a trade is if Pelfrey is already established himself on Buehrle’s level. To date, he hasn’t, and I question whether he will in the imminent future. While there’s a lot to like about Pelfrey, he’s far from complete.
Wow you guys are talking about a guy in just his second year of pro ball, Pelfrey, as if he is a failed experiment. He has no business ever having pitched at the major league level in the normal world.
I say don’t give up on this kid yet. How many times have we heard “I developed another pitch to go with my fastball” as an answer to “How did you finally put it all together, Mike”?
I would rather Maine not get ego by being in all star. look what homerun derby did to wright. Let maine concentrate on being the Mets’ ace pitcher.
I have one really pet peeve. WHY THE HELL DID WILLIE TAKE HIM OUT of the 9th?! That was the make or break right there…. He shold have let maine picth it out! This 100 pitch thing is BS.
I WAS SOOOOOOOO ANGRY! jihn – u must have heard me screaming… the rest of the neighborhood did…
Gil- I think some of it is a conflict between pitching coaches. I was reading somewhere that coaches were disagreeing about what pitches he should be relying on and location. For example, Rick likes his pitchers to stay down in the zone but he had been working on the high fastball in the minors. Also, while i agree that Pelf is not the only prospect we have, he probably has the most upside. And the Mets have the luxury (despite a few injuries giving him a few starts this year) of giving him time to work in the minors. As long as Sosa’s injury isn’t serious, we won’t be seeing Pelf again until Sept maybe and he certainly won’t be pitching any meaningful games.
LELE – I think the difference in opinion is b/c you and I are looking at the reason for his starts completely differently. The way I see it, this wasn’t his big chance or an experiment and it wasn’t the Mets trying to check out their young talent – this was a spot start when we needed an emergency starter, and we didn’t have too many other options at the last minute. As CLM said, this isn’t really a failed experiment as much as a cup of coffee for the young guy, just like Lastings last year, who wasn’t so hot in his first few weeks either. Very few pitchers excel right away in their careers and then are aces for the next 10 years. Most aces grow into their roles and many amazing rookies never duplicate their “flash in the pan” success. Point is, you never know what Pelf might be, but if you are going to package him, just be sure you are getting someone young with a tremendous upside, because that’s what Pelf is.
Benny: The long-ago “can’t miss” Mets prospects I listed were once ranked by Baseball America as being the Mets best prospects for certain years. I used the names to illustrate the greater point that just because a prospect is listed as such, it doesn’t guarantee future stardom.
And no way I trade Pelfrey for Buehrle, given his contract status, or even his current talent level.
But as I said, I’d deal Mike Pelfrey faster than light speed if would get us Roy Oswalt, Aaron Harang, or Carlos Zambrano (though I can’t see the Cubs dealing him, as they’re at .500 and have every reason to expect to be battling for the NL Central or Wild Card).
SNK: I agree that there’s a conflict of pitching coaches at play in determining what kind of pitcher Pelfrey should be. He has looked like three different pitchers in his three stints with the Mets going back to last year and only one of those versions (July ‘06) has had any kind of success. Unfortunately, because he’s a No. 1 pick and so much has been invested in him, more tinkering goes on with him than other prospects.
I say trade Pelfrey, as LoveEmHateEm says, for a bigger fish, let that other organization mold him, wish him the best and call it a day.
snk: After 7 Pelf-starts this year without a win, ya gotta start wondering: ”...when???...”
It’s now past the ‘trend’ stage. If you got a ‘57 Chevy that looks snappy but don’t run, you don’t take it on the highway, ya test it out on the back streets or farm roads until it’s right or until you trade it for something that runs better. you may get something not as good looking but if it gets you from pt a to point b, then you got a winner.
And wins are the bottom line.
I’d trade Pelfrey for Buehrle, if granted a 72-hour window to negotiate an extension.
Gil – that’s a good call, his being a #1 prospect has probably stunted his growth more than anything!
LEHE – that’s exactly why Pelf shouldn’t be in the majors right now. But in reality, if that’s your only car for a day or two and you need to go on the highway, you’ll risk it. And the risk in this situation was extremely low, having won 3 of 4 already. Plus, with the great pitching coaches we have in the minors, Pelf should improve if given the time to do so.
I’m not saying the guy is untradeable by any means, but Oswalt is not available and I dont think he would perform well here, as he has said in the past he doesn’t want to play in NY. Zambrano would be a rental, as would Buehrle and I think we’d end up regretting that, especially if they didn’t lead us to a championship this year. I just don’t see anyone available that is worth giving up on him just yet.
I don’t get it: Why are Buehrle and Zambrano rentals?
I’m confident Zambrano wouldn’t be a rental. He’s already high on Omar’s target list to sign next year. How would Zambrano, with his charisma, not want to play in New York? I’m sure he’d also welcome being on the same staff as Pedro and learning from a new teacher like Rick Peterson. It’d be interesting to see what wisom Zambrano could impart to Oli Perez and Johnny Maine, too.
It’s possible Zambrano will sign with the Mets in the offseason, but that’s true even if we keep Pelfrey. Zambrano has a chance to come here, but unless I’m missing something here, giving up Pelfrey is unnecessary when we can get him in 3 months and keep Pelfrey. Meanwhile we’d pay the same amount in the offseason for him regardless of whether he wears a Mets cap for the next few months (prob a little less but that’s not really a problem for the Mets). That’s all I’m saying.. Buehrle is dying to go to STL, so he’s likely to go there regardless of whether he is traded by the deadline to another team.
Buehrle and Zambrano are FA at the end of the year.
Omar is not the type to trade blue chip prospects for rentals. See – Zito, Barry.
The speed at which some want to trade young guys is interesting. Tell me, do you know how long Hamels was in the minors for before he came up? A few years is the answer.
I’m trying to figure out who this “Humphrey” guy is. How do his numbers look? Is he higher on the depth chart than Pelfrey and Humber?
As for Buerhle, forget the no-no. Look at his total body of work. Not that impressive. Plus, as SNK notes, he is rumored to be targetting St. Louis once he hits the market.
Gil – I would not trade Pelfrey for the chance to win a ring this year with a rental who could then leave. With him, assuming he matures, we could win more than 1.
Given the awful season they arte having, the Yanks are going to be throwing money all over the place this offseason. That is going to make it harder for all teams to sign guys. Trading Pelfrey for a FA to be is more risky than usual.
In the past, the Mets have been burned trading away youngsters for rentals or other players who did not pan out. Omar has learned from those mistakes. I hope.
I love the names being bandied about, Oswalt, Harang. One problem, why would those teams trade them for a younger arm who needs more time? Oswalt signed a friendly deal for Houston, and they will have money coming off the books this offseason. Harang is not going to be traded either.
SNK: I hope if the Mets don’t get Buehrle he’ll go to St. Louis instead of to Atlanta, LA, San Diego, Milwaukee or the Cubs, as the Cardinals are unlikely to make the playoffs.
But getting Zambrano – or someone of his caliber -now, may be the thing that gets us into the World Series THIS year. And if I were the Mets GM, I’d sacrifice Pelfrey or Milledge now to do that, but I wouldn’t part with Carlos Gomez or Phil Humber.
It’s all about the gamble.
Look how the Blue Jays got burned with their signings of A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan. Both are hurt (Ryan’s out for the year) and they didn’t make the playoffs with either or both guys.
And in trades, there’s the adage that “you have to give up someone of value to get someone of value.”
Ed: Money, as you know, would be the sole motivating factor for small market teams to trade their big stars and import young talent.
The Reds just fired their manager, may trade Griffey Jr., Dunn, and David Weathers. They’re blowing it up and starting from scratch, so why not trade Harang (who is signed thru 2011) – if the Mets make a sweet enough offer?
If I’m a middle market GM and realize my team’s going nowhere for the forseeable future, why not take all the big-money players off the books and take a chance on rebuilding with prospects, in the hope of contending in a few years?
Humphrey = Humber + Pelfrey. They are joined since college.
I wouldn’t trade our primo talent for a rental. I would want a lock up. I would trade to better the team but not for a flyer.
Esp not the pitching. There is not that much good pitching lying around. I would not want to throw what we have away and they overpay for crap in a year or two.
Gil – personally, I think the Reds hold onto Harang since he is a guy they can build around.
If they trade those other pieces, they can start to re-stock, and have $ in the offseason.
I am gunshy on trading youngsters admittedly. And also gunshy on overhyping them (see – Petit, Yusimero a media creation if there ever was one).
The Mets are going to need to replace:
Why trade away Pelfrey for a rental given they will have holes themselves next year?
Zambrano scares me because he was awful earlier this year, and has a ton of innings on his arm (thanks Dusty!). Trading Pelfrey and then having to re-sign him is a huge cost. Better to shoot the dice in FA, or see if the price comes down later this month.
Dave – ah, now I get it. Thanks.
I agree with pretty much everything that Gil, Dave and Ed have just said. But Gil, one thing: I’d have to check in on the status of Pedro before acquiring any pitchers right now. While I agree a WS would be awesome, I don’t know that Zambrano would bring us that this year. I think there’s at least an outside chance that Pedro will come back and be effective for August through October, making it even less important to acquire a rental. SO I’m not willing to trade anything for Zambrano unless I know Pedro is not coming back. And while I agree with you that we could possibly wean away Harang from the Reds, I’m not so sure it is worth doing so with so much (free) talent waiting in the wings. (but that gets us to the original question of how much Pelf really can offer the team, which i know we dont agree on). Point is, the Mets need bullpen help more than starters right now
Re rentals: They’re not rentals if you’re making the deal contingent on a 72-hour window to sign the player.
Re Zambrano’s availability three months from now: The 2007 post-season will be over by then. Why wait?
Re Buehrle’s body of work: He’s consistently among the top ten in wins, innings pitched and ERA and he’s only two years older than Maine and Perez. Do you think Pelfrey will be this good when he’s 27?
Re Cole Hamels: I’ll bet you a cheesecake that he’ll have surgery on his arm by the end of 2008. Junior’s only.
Re Cincy’s housecleaning: They still need to put marketable players on the field to sell tickets.
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