Oliver Perez, tonight’s starter against Boston, carries a reputation of being hot and cold into the fourth slot in the rotation. I never know what to expect from this guy. One day he’s lights out; another day he couldn’t find the plate with a map.
Personally, my confidence level is rather low on him. He might be better off as the fifth starter if they can plug in somebody with more consistency ahead of him. If Mike Pelfrey makes the rotation, with the off days in early Aprily, as of now I’d rather give him the ball.
Your thoughts? What’s your confidence level on Perez?
18 Comments
I’m high on Ollie. He’ll win at least 13 games this year i mean, c’mon even Trachsel did more for us. I’m fine with him in the No.4 Spot
No one pitcher has been OUTSTANDING This spring. It’s hard to say. But Perez never gave me much confidence. I guess willie will let us know.
....I feel better about Perez after last year’s NLCS. My take is he’ll always be inconsistent, and my prediction is he’ll be the first Met to fire a no-hitter, he has that kind of stuff. I also believe there’ll be days he’s gone after 3 innings after giving up 4 or 5 runs. He’s a young left-hander who still has to mature, but I’d be suprised if he didn’t get 10 wins this year…
I have no expectations regarding Ollie 4 Perezident.
That way I can’t be disappointed, only mildly surprised.
He is an enigma, and until he can go out and pitch without all the pressure that he seems to need to do well, he will remain an enigma. It may be that Ollie is a closer and not a starter, that he needs the extra pressure to perform well.
Problem with that is that he needs so many pitches to get going in rhythm.
Luckily Willie and Rick know better than I.
When I watch him pitch he doesn’t seem to have enough command. He bounces too many pitches and a good portion of his pitches seem to sail up and to his left (high and outside to a right-handed batter). That is why I don’t have confidence in him. He puts runners on and gets behind in the count. You have to strike a lot of guys out and get a lot of double plays to be succesful like that. He doesn’t get a lot of double plays. He holds his own in the strikeout department. I would feel much more confident if he threw fewer of those awful pitches that no battter will swing at and no ump will ever call a strike.
In the #4 slot, Ollie should be fine. Yeah, you’d like see Pelfrey get into a rhythm early, but presumably the Mets are going to keep Pelfrey’s innings down, as he only pitched around 110 last year.
Also, Perez seems like he’s working on one aspect of his game in each of his spring starts thus far. We may see him start putting it all together as the season approaches. Expectations for the 4 slot in the rotation are that he’ll win 9-13 games with an ERA around 4-4.5. Anything better would be gravy.
The problem with not being able to actually see the games (cable issues) is that it’s hard to evalute the new, and/or young pitchers with out a visual image. Since the Mets are playing Boston tonight and I don’t get SNY, I will have to wait and see if the game is being covered on NESN. I did see the RedSox/Yankee game there last week when YES was tape delayed. So, maybe I will get to see Perez after all.
Spring pitchers are like spring flowers, you are so anxious to see them, that you sometimes overlook their flaws and, conversely can be surprised by the poise shown by others. I prefer to watch their demeanor on the mound, in the clubhouse and see if they can field the position without getting frazzled rather than just check out their mechanics. We’ve all seen pitchers who simply lose it if one of their fielders overthrows to first and makes an error. Those who can keep their cool while throwing heat are the ones we want.
My intital optimism regarding Oliver stemmed from a belief that Rick saw something in Perez’s delivery that he felt he could correct. An undiagnosed hitch would expalin Perez’s dramatic dropoff while still in Pittsburgh. Under Rick’s tutelage in the first full spring training the two had together, I was anticipating a dramatic turnaround: problem solved, send in the next patient. Now, I’m not so sure.
Here’s my question: during his terrific 2004 season, Perez routinely hit 93+ mph. Then a year later, he could barely crack 88. So how hard is he throwing now? And do you (John) get the sense that Rick is optimistic, or that he’s as baffled as the rest of us?
To Steve (RE: Peterson)
Peterson always comes across as optimistic to me, but he’s also aware of Perez’s shortcomings and has expressed them (he gets the ball up too much and falls behind in the count, etc).
Perez had enough good moments last year to where he deserves a shot. But, he always had enough down times to make you wonder if he’ll ever come around.
The only thing for certain, is that hard-throwing lefthanders will always get a chance somewhere.
I tell ya the future of this season is Pelfrey and maine.
What he had in ‘04 just doesn’t disappear unless something happened. The Pirates tinkered with his mechanics which screwed him up. That can be the only explanation why he struggled after a successful season. Realisticly, i think he’ll have 3-4 good outings followed by 1-2 bad outings.
I tend to agree with you. Perez has been very unpredictable and I’m not sure if he still should spend some more time in the minors at New Orleans.
Last year, Bannister made a strong showing during the Spring and he was on the starting rotation. This year, it would appear that Pelfry is doing the same. I like Pelfry as a number 4 or 5 with either Sele (who hasn’t been very impressive) or Park in the other spot.
Totally agree with you John, anyone that inconsistent doesn’t make me feel very confident. Could the real Olly please stand up?! That goes for Pelfrey, and Humber as well. Time will tell I guess but I hope the Mets find out sooner rather than later.
Sam, that’s just it. I don’t remember ever actually watching a game that Oliver Perez pitched when he had his great year so I can’t pin down the difference but if he hasn’t had a severe injury he should be able to return to that level. He’s still young. He just seems a kind of all over the place with his location to me.
I think the key to Perez will be his K/BB ratio. During his breakout season in Pittsburgh, it was 2.95 Ks for every walk; in his three subsequent seasons with the Pirates, it was 1.5, 1.38 and 1.19, respectively. With the Mets last year, he was able to raise it to 2.41, which could be a good sign for the future.
Regarding Perez’ mechanics, this is a very interesting website: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/mechanics/discussion/the_complex_case_of_oliver_perez/
Perez will pitch his duds here and there, but on the whole, I’m pretty confident he’ll have a dependable year. The potential is there for more of a breakout, but who knows? What we know from last year’s playoffs is that he is best when feeling super competitve. I think that we may very well be surprised at his improvement this year. That said, if he puts up an ERA of 4,50 with this offense, he’s probably good for 13 – 15 wins.
John, even in a best case scenario with Pelfrey, how many innings do we want him to throw this year? He only went 117 last year, and a jump to 200 or so would be playing with fire. Wang made a similar increase from 2005 to 2006, and if I were a Yankee fan I’d be holding my breath with him. The Mets need to think of Pelfrey in regard to the next 10-15 years, not just 2007. If he goes 175 that’s pushing it far enough, IMO…