The Aaron Sele signing made me take a look at the Mets’ rotation. The way I see it, there’s not a guy that could start that doesn’t have a question:
Here are mine:
Tom Glavine: He’s 40, went a month without a victory last year, and as a six-inning guy to begin with, how much does he have left?
Orlando Hernandez: Who knows how old he is, and what’s left?
John Maine: Will he regress or take another step forward?
Oliver Perez: He has a live arm, but what can you expect from a reclamation project?
Dave Williams: Do they really expect a journeyman to become a consistent winner?
Mike Pelfrey: Aren’t all rookies gambles?
Phil Humber: See Pelfrey.
Aaron Sele: If he were that good, wouldn’t the Dodgers have kept him?
Alay Soler: Outside of one game, what has he shown against ML hitters?
Jorge Sosa: Can you bank on a project?
Jason Vargas: Again, his former team gave up on him, so aren’t there doubts?
There’s quantity, but where’s the quality?
Folks, a whole lot of things have to break right for the Mets’ starters this year. They’ll need big time help from the hitters and bullpen.
16 Comments
I agree with your assessment of the rotation. Each potential starter has a question mark, some based on past performance, some based on age, some on health. Omar must feel that if he has enough gamble types in the hopper, some of them HAVE to pan out, right?
The numbers on pitchers who Peterson has handled are very good. Essetially, every starter that he’s coached has performed best under him and they get worse after leaving him. That thinking colors Omar’s moves. He’s taking some low-risk, high reward guys and telling his staff to go coach them up. We’ll see if it works.
Additionally, the number of minor league innings on Pelfry and Humber are similar to those Zito/Hudson/Mulder when Rick was there and they were brought up, so you can be sure that colored Omar’s off-season approach as well. Part of building from within invariably leads to these sitations where the team has a need now with a young player a year away. Committing to the youth movement requires those spots on the roster so the young players can step up, ala Detroit.
It’s not like the rotation was stellar last year. Glavine is the only returning starter who was in the rotation coming out of spring training 2006. Zambrano is gone [for now…], Trach is gone, Bannister is gone, Pedro is rehabing. 3 of those 4 aren’t what I’d call world beaters, and Pedro was fragile and had his history of problems.
I think we can find arms of the quality we had on opening day 2006 out of that group. Who knows what happens when the games are played and trades happen?
To Raincntry (RE: Rotation)
This is the shotgun approach, shooting and hoping they hit something. Nothing is ever a given, but contending teams usually go into the season with less questions than the Mets have. Unquestionably, this will be Rick Peterson’s greatest challenge. We know not all of these guys will pan out, but we also know not all of them will go down in flames, either.
I see 2 things:
1.) Omar has a hard on for bullpen vs. starters.
2.) for once rookies in the farm are getting their fair change. why? maybe see #1
I think the bats will produce…
change/chance. ugh
I think every starting pitcher in the NL, save 5-8 pitchers, has a question mark associated with them. Do the Mets have more question marks than other teams? Sure they do, but I think Tom Glavine is less of one than you make him out to be (see every other month besides the one you mentioned). El Duque’s health is a question mark, but he can still get hitters out, so hopefully he just stays healthy. Maine and Perez are both question marks obviously, but I like Maine to be solid for us (perez we’ll see) and the #5 spot can go to anyone, what do teams realistically expect out of their #5 guy anyway? I’m sure we can get some decent starts out of whoever is at #5 at the moment, and match up to other team’s #5’s. And one of the young guys might even take that #5 spot and run with it, become a #3 type pitcher, who knows. And then there’s Pedro Martinez, the biggest question mark of them all. I mean, everyone is doom and gloom about it, saying we shouldnt expect anything, which obviously is the correct way to go about it, but that situation isn’t a guarantee, he could still come back and be effective. You just never know.
The challenge for the Mets is to replace those 300 innings thrown last year by Pedro and Trachsel.
As an aggregate, this isn’t a difficult assignment when you consider that Pedro posted a 4.48 ERA and Trachsel was at 4.97; surely, you would expect some combination of their current in-house options to be able to post an ERA around 4.75 or so.
The problem comes when you look at the specifics around Pedro’s first two months, when he was pitching lights-out baseball. What will be hard to replace will be those first 75 innings over April and May when Pedro’s ERA was 2.50.
For the short term, at least, it would appear that it’s going to be the Post-Season Revisited: Lots of five- and six-inning performances from the starters, followed by a nightly liquidation of the seven-deep bullpen. While this might work for awhile, it’s probably not sustainable over the long haul. Omar will likely either have to stop the bleeding with the acquisition of an innings-eater starter or two, or with an infusion of new relievers.
I think what we have to hope is that 2007 is the mirror image of 2006. The team’s probably not going to start 8-1 or 12-2 or have a 9-1 road trip in early June against solid clubs. In all likelyhood, the Mets will be lucky to be over .500 through May. What may bode well for this team though is the second half of the season, when the coaching staff has a better idea of what they’re working with, and who they can/will have to depend on. By then, if any of Pelfrey, Humber, or Vargas are ready to develop their raw talents into major league success, it will be clearer. If Oliver Perez is indeed reclaimable, it will be clearer. If Maine is going to be the rock the team is hoping he can be, it will also be clearer. And if Pedro has a shot at a decent half season, it will be clearer.
While the team may not be poised to run away with the division out of the gate as they were in 2006, this should be an exciting year in a more competetive NL East. And the fact that this team is poised to get better as the season goes may bode better for possible postseason aspirations (should they get there) than things did in 2006.
The only thing I don’t understand is why people look at Glavine as so much of a question mark, given that stuff-wise and health-wise he’s been one of the most consistent pitchers of his era. Why would being 41 as opposed to 40 make any more of a difference than being 40 as opposed to 39? As a finesse pitcher with a stellar track record, I think Glavine’s got plenty left. The bigger question mark for me by far is El Duque, who is much more prone to “running out of gas” so to speak, and doesn’t have Glavine’s nearly injury-free track record.
As for the “throw it all against the wall and hope something sticks” approach to the remainder of the rotation, I think they have more than enough in quantity and upside to outweigh what they lack in proven quality. When all is said and done, this moreso than any other year in his tenure, will be Rick Peterson’s chance to really earn his money. Omar is putting a tremendous amount of faith in Ricky Longsleeves this season, and if the pitching staff does not produce or hold up, I would not be surprised one bit if the Jacket is the one who takes the hit for it.
John,
Every season in MLB is somewhat of a gamble. Player production varries from year to year (somewhat), depending on the player and other variables. Point being you can never really count on anyone other then hall of famers, see Tom Glavine. The Mets in 06 had similar questions coming into spring training, Pedro’s health, glavine’s age, Zambrano’s consistency, Bannister (rookie), and Trachsel was the only guy you could “count on” for innings while getting tagged in the process (had big help from the bats to post his 15 wins). The Mets called on Solar, Lima, Gonzalez, El Duque, Dave Williams, Oliver Perez, Maine, Pelfrey etc. to get to their 97 wins, tops in the NL. To me the team has only improved. Alou will balance the line up and Sean Greene is a very servicable outfielder. Our farm system has some prospects and our Pitching staff has many options. Fact of the matter the Mets in 07 are clearly better if not for any other reason than Jose Lima will not be required to do ANYTHING for our Blue and Orange. Every team has question marks, some bigger then others. Based on our ball club last year, the growth of our young talent, our coaching staff, and unfinished business to be taken care of, our boys will be moren then up to the task. Welcome to queens Jonny and please believe the Mets will “contend” in 07.
The other thing you have to remember is that starting pitching is so scarce that the World Champion Cardinals are considering using Braden Looper in their rotation in 2007. Braden Looper. Think about that. Aaron Sele is starting to look like Bob Gibson.
Astute assessment. And while some will point to this and say “Ah Ha! This is exactly why the Mets should have traded for Haren,” my perspective is that this is why you would not want to make that trade as the entire starting staff is still in flux. It’s also the primary reason I’ve contended that this team is likely much more forward thinking still rather than concentrated strictly in the present. Omar has filled the roster with bridge players in several areas, but I’m sure he’s still keenly aware that until he can roll out three, in their prime, impressive front end starters, there aren’t enough givens on this staff to empty the cupboard in search of just one.
Got 3 words for you: Humber, Pelfrey, Maine. I ain’t worried.
John,
I basically agree with you.
I like Glavine. I think he rediscovered how to pitch. I am not worried about his slot. I think Maine is crucial for the rotation. If he pitches like we expect we have only 2 slots to fill, otherwise you have one guy at top with #2 a question and then who knows?
Omar got quantity and will let the season sort it all out. In reality he had no choice. Pay huge $$ for not much or get a bunch of bodies and see what spring does. There were one or two solid pitchers in the free agent market and we know how that went.
He got the OF we needed out of the gate so we have the bat and our outfield set going into the season.
I like what he did considering the circumstances. As I have said many times before when the season starts and teams fall out we may be able to swing something to help the rotation.
I also hold out new hope for Lastings that he stays in AAA and improves his game and attitude.
Dave
PS.
I tried replying on my blackberry yesterday when you posted this but the new website caused issues so it didn’t go through.
The bullpen is going to be overworked if they don’t pick up another ML starter
The bullpen is going to be overworked if they don’t pick up another ML starter. Just like the Yankees were overworked last season from having Randy Johnson and Jared Wright pitch. Yanks put on an extra bullpen guy this year, the Mets should too.