Willie Randolph is fond of saying spring training is an open competition, but that’s not really the case with the Mets this year. Here’s the way I see how the Mets’ 25-man could shake out.
The only real competition I see, barring injuries, is for the fifth starter. Don’t agree? Let me know.
Catchers (2)
Paul Lo Duca
Ramon Castro
Comments: Lo Duca is healthy from surgery on this thumb. They’ve always liked Castro for the way he handles pitchers.
Infielders (7)
1B Carlos Delgado
2B Jose Valentin
SS Jose Reyes
3B David Wright
Bench
Julio Franco
Damion Easley
Dave Newhan
Comments: Delgado is a given. Valentin gave them more than they expected last season so don’t be surprised if there is a drop-off. All-Stars Wright and Reyes should continue to develop. Bench: They probably regret giving Franco two years. Easley can play just about anywhere in the infield. Newhan can also play the outfield.
Outfielders (5)
Carlos Beltran
Moises Alou
Shawn Green
Endy Chavez
Ben Johnson
Comments: Beltran is an MVP candidate. Alou is a health question. Green is on the decline. Chavez was superb coming off the bench and played more than expected. The Mets like Johnson’s versatility.
Starting pitchers (5)
Tom Glavine
Orlando Hernandez
John Maine
Oliver Perez
Fifth starter
Comments: Glavine and Hernandez are both over 40 and six-inning pitchers tops. Realistically, based on last year, who doesn’t expect Maine? Perez is a power arm and makes the staff with any kind of spring training. The fifth starter will come from Dave Williams, Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Alay Soler and Jason Vargas.
Bullpen (6)
Billy Wagner
Duaner Sanchez
Aaron Heilman
Ambiorix Burgos
Scott Schoeneweis
Jorge Sosa
Comments: Sure, Wagner makes you shake sometimes in the ninth, but he’s set. Sanchez said his shoulder would be ready by spring training. If so, he’s the eighth inning set-up guy. The Mets had their chance to deal Heilman, but didn’t. Pencil him in for the seventh. They like Burgos’ arm and think pitching coach Rick Peterson can solve his control problems. You don’t give Schoeneweis three years and leave him off the roster. Sosa is loaded with potential and a contract.
45 Comments
What about Feliciano? He was awesome last year. I think Burgos will began the year in New Orleans.
Perhaps Adkins and Padilla will have some chances to make the roster.
Yeah JD. Where do you see Feliciano and Padilla then?
John,
Last year early in the season Will Carroll wrote that Billy Wagner was pitching with an injured finger on his throwing hand. He said you’ll notice it because he’d lose some velocity, and have control issues. This seemed to be the case. To your knowledge, was there such an injury, and if so, Was anything done this offseason to try to heal that injury?
i know that the mets were one game away from the WS last season, but i cant help look at this roster and think mediocre.
great offense 1-6, but the pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired. while the bullpen may be the team’s greatest strength, if glavine, duque, and company can only get through 5 or 6 innings a night, those pen arms are going to be awfully tired come september.
i think that offense will be enough to carry them to contend for the division, but i feel less confident going into this season than i did with this team going into last season.
I would put Endy above Green or a platoon there at least.
I see Johnson is a young guy so don’t know what to expect from him.
I think they are thin in the OF. I see 3 guys with a lot of hopes and dreams that nothing happens.
I agree with the top 3 starting pitchers. After that we will see what happens in the spring.
I have a feeling Sanchez won’t be like last year and may not be around in the beginning. How can he be? He was lights out till he got hurt. I would have strongly considered him the closer in the post season if you don’t have to worry about ego issues.
Dave
Hey John,
Like the blog a lot, but I’ll have to disagree with you here. I don’t see a 6 man bullpen. It’s that simple. I think Dave Williams or Pedro Feliciano takes that 7th spot. Padilla and others who blossom in AAA make appearances later in the year to fill in for injuries/ineffectives/tired arms. Scratch Newhan unless he has a real show-me spring. The guy is not as versatile as everyone thinks, and has an awful defensive infield track record. Keep up the good work man!
Guys …
My reasoning:
To BDID (RE: Wagner)
Yes, Wagner did have a problem with his finger last spring, but said it wasn’t bothering him. To my knowledge he didn’t have anything done with his finger in the offseason, but I will check on it.
wait a second, you don’t see milledge beating out alou in left? are you high? Milledge would have absolutely no shot of beating out Alou for left, I feel Alou is being hugely underappreciated because of a fluke injury last year. Before that, he was a guy who played a lot of games, and after the injury, he came back very strong, just take a look at his september stats, so please, spare me the injury risk. Sure, he won’t play 150+ games, but does he need to? no, you sub for him every once in a while, keep him fresh. the guy mashes the ball, and to think milledge could even sniff his league as a hitter is ludicrous.
also, either Burgos or Sosa won’t be in the pen, if Feliciano shows up and resembles himself from last year, he’ll get a spot, having two lefties like that would be killer…I mean, we do have to face Ryan Howard a bunch. I also just don’t think both Burgos and Sosa will be good enough to make it, the chance of two guys with control issues suddenly putting it together would amaze me.
Thanks John,
You do a great job keeping us up to date. Will you be attending the Mets camp in Mid February? I’d love to hear your opinion on the way the 5th starter options look as they compete against one another.
To Joseph (RE: Milledge)
Please reread what I wrote. In the roster I didn’t list Milledge and the following was my response to a post:
``I chose Johnson over Lastings Milledge figuring the Mets would rather give him minor league at-bats rather than having him ride the bench. I don’t see him beating out Alou in left, but think he has an outside chance of taking right from Green. If that was the case, it would make for a better bench.’‘
To Joseph (RE: Bullpen)
If Feliciano is lights out this spring and Burgos is all over the map, yeah, I can see the former sticking. Like I said, this was a coin flip for me.
To BDid (RE: Spring training)
Yes, I will be there. My intention is to blog throughout the day, much like at the winter meetings.
I see the Mets having a 7 man bullpen with the 6 you mentioned plus Feliciano. I see no reason to carry the 5th outfielder (Johnson), when you have Newhan who can play both the infield and the outfield. Also, given the question marks with the rotation, carrying a seventh man in the bullpen will make sense, as the pen will likely get alot of work. Plus, a seven man bullpen is consistent with the makeup of the team most of last year. I agree with the roster you propose, except I see Feliciano making the team instead of Johnson.
John,
I cannot imagine the Mets going with only 6 in the pen. Last year, they stuck with 7 pretty much the whole season, and this year’s starters are not expected to pitch any deeper than last year’s.
See Williams as the long reliever if he does not make it as the 5th starter and Sosa in AAA (they will sell him on what they did for Perez last year). Probably Feliciano as the 7th reliever, at least breaking camp. Agree with you that Burgos will probably make the team, but if he gets wild, look for him to spend some in AAA and Padilla to be on the big league club, if healthy.
...I see Milledge over Johnson so the Mets can hedge their bet
on Green, while giving exposure to their biggest trading chip. There’s a chance Milledge can outperform Green in right, but if he as any success at all, will his teammates be able to live with him?? John, do you know if Johnson has any options left??
Omar said that this is these are the players he will take into spring training. If everybody proves to be healthy,
1. I anticipate a Milledge and Heilman trade for the remaining stater. The other starts are Glavine, ElDuque, Maine, and Perez.
2. I believe that the AAA starters will include Pelfrey, Humber, Vargas, Solar, and Sosa with Sosa having the Jose Lima role of 2007 (first call up). The other four should get at least half a season honing their skills at AAA. None of them have spent much time in the minors. The one who does best gets the second call up (after Sosa)
3. The bullpen will consist of longman- Dave Williams; the 7-8-9 inning men- Schoeneweis, Sanchez and Wagner; and the mid relievers Burgos, Feliciano, and TBA/Mota. Mota returns in late May and the best of the rest will compete for the fifty day opportunity to showcase their stuff.
Rick Peterson will his hands full with Perez, Sosa, Burgos, Schoeneweis, Sanchez, and Vargas.
Without the trade, Sosa is the fifth starter, Heilman is the seventh inning guy, Schoeneweis goes mid-relief joining Feliciano and Burgos-one, of whom, gets sent down when Mota serves his suspension.
On the offense, Shawn Green is the one that will be pushed to keep his job. Alou is safe. Ben Johnson will probably be the odd man out from the bench, which will consist of Franco, Easily, Casto, Chavez, and Newhan.
In the outfield, Alou, Green, and Chavez will each get 400 AB’s. At second base, Easily will get his share of AB’s, with Valentin getting 400-450 AB’s
You’ve done a good job, although so much of the roster just falls into place. My only real disagreement is that I believe Sosa will get the 5th starter’s job leaving the last spot in the pen to Feliciano. I also think that there is a strong chance that Padilla beats out Burgos for a spot in the pen, allowing Burgos to work out the kinks in New Orleans. I think Burgos will eventually be a great reliever for this team, but he needs a bit of time. Speaking of New Orleans, won’t they have a great rotation this year? Pelfrey, Vargas, Humber, Williams, Soler.
Oh, one other comment. Although the uncertainties surrounding the starters would seem to warrant going with a 7 man pen, the way Omar has constructed the team over the winter points strongly to a 6 man bench. And a 6 man bench means a 6 man pen. Perhaps the plan is to go with a 6 man pen at the start of the season, when the starters get a bit more rest, and to add Mota when his suspension is over, making a 7 man pen and moving someone from the bench down at that time.
Pedro Feliciano will definately make this team. First off, the extra reliever is going to be imperative considering our current rotation. Second of all, he had an amazing year in 2006, with a 2.09 E.R.A. And lastly, we face Howard/Utley 19 times this year. The extra lefty will mean a lot. This is crazy that Feliciano is left off. What were you thinking, John???
Note that a fifth starter isn’t needed until 3 weeks into April, so they’d start with 7 man pen (williams as the extra arm/long man). And I’d guess they’ll dump Burgos when Mota returns. I’d like to see Green moved (even for a minor leaguer) just to create more flexibility. I think Johnson or Milledge would give the team better numbers than Green.
I see your guy’s point on the seven-man pen, and it does make sense considering the questions in the rotation. In that case, and with there being more off days in April than most months, I can see carrying Williams as the fifth starter and out of the pen.
And, Mets fans, my pick for surprise of the year is going to be Oliver Perez. I am saying it right now. I’m jumping on the bandwagon. Watch him win 17-18 games this year with an E.R.A. around 2.90-3.00. He will be the boost we need in our rotation to take that extra step. Who else do you guys out there think could be another surprise candidate?
To VJA (RE: Trade)
You had quite a few interesting scenarios, but one I don’t agree with you on is the trade of Heilman and Milledge for a starter. The Mets had several opportunities to make such a deal and didn’t. Trades don’t usually come close to spring training because teams are anxious to see what they have first.
A few objections here. First, Omar has a track record of not giving away players. The players with options will go to AAA unless someone like Adkins or Dave Williams completely fails in spring training.
I would assume that the likes of Burgos and Ben Johnson could start the year in AAA to make room for Adkins and Feliciano. Newhan and Easley can play the OF, so the need for Ben Johnson as a 7th OF is minimal. Burgos having options, as well as Mota and Padilla being out allows them to keep everyone and see where they stand when Mota and Padilla are ready.
For this same reason I assume Williams and Sosa will both make the team as 5th starter and long reliever.
I would like you to account for the players you’ve dismissed. What will happen with Adkins, Feliciano, Padilla, Ruben Gotay, and the rest of the players without options that you dont have making the team? Clearly Omar isnt going to just release them or put them on waivers.
To Lawyer (RE: Seven man)
You’re right about the fifth starter not being needed early and that will be a factor. They will have an interesting decision to make when Mota is ready. But, he’ll have to spend time in the minors first. He won’t be allowed to play for Triple-A while serving the suspension.
GO YANKEES!!!
What about Juan Padilla?
To Dan (RE: Padilla)
Somebody is going to have to stay in AAA.
JUAN PADILLA HAHA GO YANKEES!!!
Agree with most of what you said. A few stray thoughts:
1) If Franco ends up on the DL, he’s not coming off til rosters expand on September 1.
2) Green is relatively cheap, but with a no-trade. If he declines markedly, or if Lastings has a kick-a$$ spring, I can see the Mets cutting Green and eating the money if he doesn’t waive the clause; if Green waives it, the Mets will eat the $$ anyway.
3) Which of those pitchers have options? Maine? #5 starter (if it’s one of the kids). Burgos? There’s going to be lots of movement to N.O. for fresh arms if it’s only a 6 man pen w/o a long man.
4) When Mota comes back, who goes? If he comes back strong, if Burgos is working out too, then I could see a trade of a righty RP plus Valentin for an upgrade @ 2B…
5) Same thing when Pedro comes back. 6 man rotation for a month, and then what?
Did you forget Pedro Feliciano in the bullpen?
Gil you retard thats what the conversation has been on the whole time!! come on pay attention…there’s one in every blog…
Screw you Drew!! Gil is a nice guy, and the Yankees SUCK!!! GO ORANGE AND BLUE!!! LETS GO METS!!!
Who do you think you are, Matt?? Some Met wimp? Gil has no idea whats going on, and you are just a loser!! GO YANKEES!!! YANKEES 2007 WORLD CHAMPS!!
I agree with everyone else that Feliciano will be in the pen for sure, and that we’ll go with a seven-man pen. I don’t think Easley makes the roster. And even though Omar is very high on Burgos, I think he starts the season at triple-A. He’s so young and was rushed to the majors by KC. I see Feliciano, Adkins, and Padilla fighting it out for the final two spots in the pen. I think Padilla, coming off the surgery, will be the odd man out. I guess, because of their contracts, Schoeneweis and Sosa are locks, although I sort of wish they weren’t.
I agree with lister about the 7 man bullpen. The Mets had a 7 man bullpen pretty early in the year last year (I don’t remember if that’s how they broke camp) in Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman, Bradford, Feliciano, Oliver, and Julio. They have a very similar group to compose the ‘pen this year, and they have a much more questionable rotation. Why would they not start with a 7 man bullpen this year? It’d be something like this: Wagner, Heilman, Sanchez/Adkins/Burgos (depending on if Sanchez starts the year on a rehab assignment), Adkins/Burgos (You have to give Adkins at least even money with Burgos, as Burgos has the AAA option), Shoeneweiss, Feliciano, Williams/Sosa (Sosa gets the nod as the LR/spot starter as he’s more versatile and has no AAA option and since there are already 2 lefties behind Wagner, one of whom can also serve as a LR). There’s an equal yet small chance that Sosa winds up on waivers or as the 5th starter, so its possible both Williams and Sosa could be on the ML roster.
For a 7 man pen You’d have to chop either Newhan or Johnson off the bench. This will likely be Johnson, as a 5th OF isn’t really needed with Endy on this team, although with Green and Alou starting it would be nice. Johnson’s advantage is more pop with the bat, Newhan’s advantage is versatility and left handedness.
“Never surrender opportunity for security.”
-Branch Rickey
Omar has built a 40-man with gi-normous opportunity. Willie is going to have to be very astute and careful to leverage the potential Omar is providing.
p.t.
Rick Peterson and Guy Conti are going to be very busy this year.
Matt,
The Mets broke camp last year with 11 pitchers last season, but it was brief. On April 17th Feliciano was called up and Victor Diaz demoted. I believe they carried 12 pitchers the majority of the season.
With Easley and Newhan able to play everywhere the Mets should be able to handle a short bench. Unfortunately Johnson seems to be the only guy capable of being a PH threat, but as he has options I expect him to spend time at AAA as well.
The answer to who will be the biggest surprise addition this year a la Xavier Nady is Ben Johnson….then like Nady he will be traded (with Burgos,Gotay and Humber) for Johan Santana
I’m sorry John but you are clearly wrong on Feliciano… and if the Mets follow that bullpen… they will be clearly wrong too.
Quick question… what middle relief pitcher (Relievers not including closers) had the lowest ERA in the National league for most of the second half last season until giving up a few runs in the last series of the year vs the Nationals?
and the same pitcher who allowed 1 run in all of August, only to follow it up with a September of no runs until that 3 run inning on September 25th?
thats right… It was Pedro Feliciano.
you put him behind Sosa and Burgos!!! thats outrageous
I think Willie will definitely have a 7 man pen especially w/ the starters the mets have they are going to need a long man(Williams)and if they have aspirations for the postseason
they can’t burn-out the pen before october.
to me the debate is the bench, with 5 “bench” positions and 3 of them sewed-up(casrto-c, chavez-of, easley-inf) it comes down to 3 players fighting for 2 spots: newhan, johnson, franco(hopefully milledge can get ab’s in aaa)
Unfortunately franco really hamstrings the bench…strikes out a lot, can only play first, no speed. this is a tough person to carry on a 5 man bench, too bad there’s no room for him on the coaching staff.
let’s go mets!
To MPeters (RE: Feliciano)
I’ve already acknowledged that. I missed that one.
Wow, you seem pretty sure about the 25-man, but until spring training rolls around I don’t see how anybody can make more than an educated guess.
Everything hinges on the question of whether to carry 5 outfielders or 7 guys in the pen. I don’t think Lastings will make the team out of spring training no matter how good he looks this spring. Fact is, while he’s got great tools and can play the outfield, he looked too overmatched against ML pitching. The key man is Johnson. In several of the comments I read, people used the phrase “pop off the bench”. Johnson has pop. I’ve seen replays of the kid hitting balls out even when he seemed a bit off balance with his swing. The kid has power. Not Nady-type power but if given a chance he will hit some homeruns for us. Johnson was one of the first moves Omar made this off-season because he sees real potential there.
So the question for me is, “If Johnson has a terrific spring, could he take the starting job away from Green in right?” Randolf said Green will have to earn it, remember?
Because of all the question marks in the rotation and simply because we have so many young arms competing for spots, it sure would be nice to start the season off with a 7-man bullpen. I mean, have the Mets EVER had so many good young arms to choose from?
If Sanchez is really healthy, then we’ve got Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman and Schoenweiss as virtual locks in the pen. The rotation 1 through 4 likely will be Glavine, El Duque, Maine, Perez. My guess is that if Vargas’ performance this spring is comparable to Humber and Pelfrey’s, Vargas will get the nod because of his big league experience. Then we’ve got Sosa, Burgos, Standridge, Williams, Feliciano and Soler competing for just 2 (if they decided to carry 5 outfielders) or 3 spots.
Wow!
With Pelfrey and Humber, that’s 5 or 6 solid young arms that will get sent down to AAA!!
The other possibility, from my standpoint, is that with Franco occupying a spot on the 25-man, Willie may decide to go with just 6 infielders and leave Newhan off the team when it breaks camp. I know he’s versatile, but he’s a little guy and he looks a lot like what we’ve already got in Chavez offensively. If Valentine wins the starting 2B job, Johnson’s bat off the bench looks too good to pass up to me. I wonder if the kid could learn how to play 1B so he could spell Delgado if necessary.
To me, there are too many question marks at this point to make predictions about the 25-man.