The more I think about it, the more I believe it is time to deal Aaron Heilman. Ambiorix Burgos enables them to trade Heilman, who clearly doesn’t want to be with the Mets any longer. His decision is that he values starting over filling a role need. That’s fine. It’s his career.
Maybe he will make it as a starter, maybe he won’t. But, he’s not going to get that chance with the Mets. So, if they get the chance to pull the trigger on a trade for a starter they should pull it immediately.
21 Comments
John
That is exactly what I was thinking. Look if the A’s are going to dangle Harden at you, and you know that they have had interest in Milledge and Heilman in the past and it would only take another young arm like Humber, then I would do it. Send him to the A’s to get a quality young starter that will only get better with the help of Peterson. Sign Zito on top of that (again the peterson factor) and the mets should be going into spring training in great shape. (then think of Pedro as a Mid season acquisition) now we are talking postseason
John Auletta
i would absolutely keep heilman. Unless jon adkins is ready to have the season of his career you must keep heilman. He’s too valuable. I know he wants to start,but to bad,dems da breaks. I dont think he has enough clout to be demanding trades(if he is anyway) so tough it out,there’s worst things then having to be a set up man for a team who could make the playoffs again.
To John …
They could be done if they add Harden. Don’t see them adding both Harden and Zito. And, you’re right. The only way to look at Pedro is as a mid-season bonus.
To Dan …
If keeping Heilman prevents me from getting Harden, I won’t do it. The key is adding another starter and Harden has more value than Heilman. To clarify, Heilman hasn’t demanded a trade, but has let it be known he wants to start.
John, first I gotta tell ya, this blog is the best on the Winter Meetings. I’m a journalism professor and I feel like we’re all getting to be questioning editors at a newsroom, with you doing all that great reporting. I agree with you – Burgos’s acquisition now makes Heilman expendable. But wouldn’t someone else be coming back to us from Oakland besides Harden if we give up three prime chips?
John,
I know Harden has tremendous upside but do you think that giving up Heilman, Humber and Milledge is too much? Really, 2 of those guys are untapped talent, being Humber and Milledge. Does Harden present a better option than signing Zito? Thoughts…
So does that mean you think they are comfortable with going into next season with
Harden OR Zito
Glavine
Hernandez
Maine
Perez bridge to Pedro
I would think they would feel protected to have both in case Maine or Perez bottoms out and Pedro never comes back, or Hernandez’s body finally catches up to his AARP discount.
John Auletta
Can’t see how Burgos represents a sound replacement for Heilman, but, I understand your point. If you can get Harden for Heilman and Milledge, I’d do it. Anything of significantly more substance than that package, I do not believe it is properly reflecting the significant injury risk Harden presents. Your thoughts?
To Burt …
Harden made $1.25 million last year. The Zito package will be over $100 million. If I get Harden, I can use the Zito money elsewhere and in the future.
Harden is also a hard thrower, which is what the Mets need.
I know Humber and Milledge are more potential than production, but so is Harden.
I know what you’d be giving up, but I make the deal because you get a power arm and save a bunch of money.
To Craig …
Just spoke to Ron Washington, who was a coach last year at Oakland. He gave a thumbs-up on Harden’s health.
Ambiorix might not be as good now as Heilman in the bullpen, but he’s not that far behind. Plus, he has a better arm and gives you the chance to make a major deal.
To John A. ...
Yes … I believe the Mets would be comfortable with the rotation as you wrote it.
John, I don’t necessarily look at Burgos as a 2007 impact acquisition. My hope was that he’d take some time in New Orleans to receive a proper minor league experience and work on his command. I agree that you have to include Heilman if that’s what it takes to bring back Harden, but I’d hope for a David Riske signing (or something of that ilk) to offset the loss.
An additional thought: I know the chances of a Harden trade are remote, but it wouldn’t seem to preclude them from going after Zito, would it? Harden’s contract is eminently affordable (I think around 2 M in 2007) and one would think that an arm slotted for the rotation (Maine?) might go in the deal.
To Dave …
Harden’s contact is such that they could still afford to go after Zito. We’re not talking about a $10 million-a-year salary. I just think if they got Harden they wouldn’t need Zito.
John, given Harden’s injury history I just wouldn’t feel comfortable slotting him as an ace because implicit in that assumption is 30-35 starts. To me, the 200+ above league average innings that you’ll get from a Zito mitigates so much risk that we saw the bullpen exposed to late last season. Boras’s “more durable starter on the market in 30 years” is typical Boras hyperbole, but there is an element of truth in it, and I don’t think it would hurt the Mets to pay a premium for those 210-230 innings. Given that, and the uncertainty surrounding Harden’s health, I still think it would be wise to go full bore after Zito even if this rumor actually comes to fruition.
What are the chances that we acquired Burgos just to flip him to Oakland? Maybe that will nab us Harden while keeping Heilman. Or, maybe Milledge, Heilman, and Burgos gets it done. But that would be way too easy….
Zito
Harden
Glavine
Duque
Maine
Looks so pretty…...
Hi John, great work!
Has Heilman said anything recently about wanting to be a starter?
Is there any concern within the Mets organization that the dinger served up to Yadier F’ing Molina could have some residual effects on Heilman’s psyche? I mean, I know in the past there have been questions about whether he had the “intestinal fortitude” to be a closer.
I’m not talking a Donnie Moore or Mitch Williams situation here, but I could see a scenario where a slow start in 2007 could cause fans to relive an unpopular moment from which Heilman, up till now, has emerged largely unscathed.
If the Mets have any concerns about that, now would be the time to deal him, particularly to a team that thinks his two-pitch repertoire is suited for a starting rotation.
el duque will pitch more innings than rich harden next year…..book it
To Dan …
Interesting bet. Promise me you’ll bookmark it and get back to me at the end of the year.
To BennyAyala …
Interesting thought. I don’t think Heilman will jump off any bridges, but he does come across as a sensitive guy.
And the fans? Well, let us say if he gives it up early I don’t see a lot of compassion. I’m all for dealing Heilman now while he has value.
To Brian …
I hadn’t heard about getting Burgos just to flip him.